Sensei's account talk

[Sensei]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

After the big gains yesterday, today's just looking a little "meh". Europe has been bouncing around the neutral line, and just made a slight break to the upside on our positive jobless report. That will be neither here nor there by the time our market closes today. I'd expect a movement of no more than half a percent either direction. Probably the same for the next 2-3 days. Then another move up or another test of the 20 day SMA. My hope is for the former, but I'll watch the SS to see how bulled up we're getting. I'd like to see SPX 1340 before I sell any of my position. For now, I'm happy to be ahead of the L funds. I'd like to keep it that way.

 

[Sensei]

If the prevailing pattern holds, we might see 4 days of sideways action, or a test of the 20 day SMA (SPX 1312) next week. Test of 20 SMA would be a loss of 2% S&P. If it doesn't hold, a test of the 50 day SMA would be much less palatable: -5.5% My plan is to hold unless we close below the 20 day, then jump back in either when we hit the 50 day or close back above 20 day - whichever scenario plays out.

(Look at the top chart - I tried to delete the bottom one, but it still shows up?)

 

[Sensei]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

DAX was down over a percent at one point. Now clawing it's way back. May be two or three more days of small losses. Last time, the tune from the bears was "the rally's running out of steam". Will their tune change to "buying opportunity"? If so, will the end be near? Time will tell.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

DAX was down over a percent at one point. Now clawing it's way back. May be two or three more days of small losses. Last time, the tune from the bears was "the rally's running out of steam". Will their tune change to "buying opportunity"? If so, will the end be near? Time will tell.

Not sure if the market is setting itself up for the 30 year bond sale coming up Thursday.

 

[LoDown]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

DAX was down over a percent at one point. Now clawing it's way back. May be two or three more days of small losses. Last time, the tune from the bears was "the rally's running out of steam". Will their tune change to "buying opportunity"? If so, will the end be near? Time will tell.

I've got cash waiting to increase my stock positions, just need the buying opportunity. I think we are heading for higher markets, just dont want to pay unreasonable prices.

 

[Sensei]

Today's looking the opposite of yesterday. Asia up, Europe starting strong and tapering off. Day 3 of consolidation I think. S&P still a little far from the 20 SMA for a bounce. See Show-me's thread for a nice look at the Trannies and their bounce off the 20. S&P could come Thursday or Friday I think.

 

[Sensei]

Well, the ol' S&P is right around 1350, which was where I said I'd think about stepping out. Bullishness ought to be getting very high - the SS was about 3 to 1 in the early returns, but the bears all woke up and cast bearish votes, which now has it much closer to even than I would expect. Though I'm not posting a chart, I'll say that the last few days have caused the S&P price to run parallel with the 20 SMA. I guess that could be considered consolidation? It might also be considered a bear flag. My initial thought is to step out COB Friday and hope for the price to drop to the 20 SMA, then jump back in within 1-3 days. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Time to go to sleep - will check back when I awake at the end of the trading day.

 

[Sensei]

Nikkei down 0.61%. DAX currently down close to 1%. S&P will probably go the same way. That would actually be about halfway to the 20 day SMA. I'd like to sell right now, but of course that can't be done. Knowing that I'll have to endure whatever today brings, the question is whether to bail with the 20 SMA only another percent below? Could bounce on Monday or Tuesday. Then again, could crash right through to the 50 SMA. Who's got the answers?

 

[bmneveu]

A nice healthy pullback looks to be in the forecast for today. But is this just a one-day light shower or the beginning of a tsunami?

I just woke up -- need to lay off the metaphors for awhile, hahah.

 

[Minnow]

Sensei, I see you respect the 20/50. You ever click and chart the 13/34 weekly?

 

[Sensei]

A nice healthy pullback looks to be in the forecast for today. But is this just a one-day light shower or the beginning of a tsunami?

I just woke up -- need to lay off the metaphors for awhile, hahah.

DAX now down almost 2%. I don't know if that's healthy, but the 20 day SMA is 2.2% south for the S&P. If things go according to my plan, then I'd like to see a bounce immediately. :blink:

Sensei, I see you respect the 20/50. You ever click and chart the 13/34 weekly?

I haven't looked at that one. Is it good? I'm still relatively new to all this, and look for historical patterns in the charts based on the simple daily moving averages. During the recent bear market, I was following the pinball between the 50/100, and found a way to dig out of my hole from summer pretty effectively. Now that we're in this bull market, I've gone back to the previous bull market and found the pattern of support from the 20 SMA there.

Since I haven't used an IFT yet, I will jump out if the S&P closes below the 20 day SMA. If I were already out of IFTs, I would see it through until the 50 day. If I go out, and we bounce back above the 20, I can buy back in. Maybe I miss a little gain, but I get the broad stroke and relieve a little risk. If the price keeps going down, I'll wait until we get close to the 50 to buy back in.

That's my plan - now make me stick to it. :embarrest:

 

[Minnow]

I haven't looked at that one. Is it good? I'm still relatively new to all this, and look for historical patterns in the charts based on the simple daily moving averages. During the recent bear market, I was following the pinball between the 50/100, and found a way to dig out of my hole from summer pretty effectively. Now that we're in this bull market, I've gone back to the previous bull market and found the pattern of support from the 20 SMA there.

Since I haven't used an IFT yet, I will jump out if the S&P closes below the 20 day SMA. If I were already out of IFTs, I would see it through until the 50 day. If I go out, and we bounce back above the 20, I can buy back in. Maybe I miss a little gain, but I get the broad stroke and relieve a little risk. If the price keeps going down, I'll wait until we get close to the 50 to buy back in.

That's my plan - now make me stick to it. :embarrest:

The 13/34 weekly using the EMAs is a more big picture type thing. Some folks like to use the 13/34 in conjunction with the 20/50. Anyways, I used to use the 13/34 in conjunction with the 3/10 daily and when the 13 got more excited at the same time the daily 3 got more excited, i would jump in. The same was true for when they got less excited... I would short (or in case of TSP, jump to "G"). Fairly simple if you just used volume as a measure of excitement. Wasn't always right but I liked it's simplicity and with unlimited IFT's I didn't worry too much about it being an all or nothing proposition. Nowadays? Not so much.

 

[Sensei]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

More annoying than losing 1.16% in the S-fund yesterday is the fact that the S&P only lost .69%. There's still a lot more to lose before the 20 SMA, and small caps will lose even more.

 

[Sensei]

I don't usually like to look at Asia for clues as to how our market will act the next day, but has anyone taken a look at the Nikkei today? Up almost 2% in morning trading. The landscape can certainly change by the time our market opens, but wow.

 

[Bronco07]

Let's be optimistic Sensei ....... hopefully a major push will occur in the US markets tomorrow

 

[Sensei]

Let's be optimistic Sensei ....... hopefully a major push will occur in the US markets tomorrow

Well, the DAX carried the ball into field goal territory, but is looking like it's about to fumble. Too much optimism cand cloud rational thought. But then again, so can too much pessimism.

 

[Sensei]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

The sky is falling, right? This market is cooked.

Actually these last several days that have formed a "flat-top" have helped bring support closer. One more day like today, and we should be ready to bounce.

 

[Bquat]

Re: Sensei's Account Talk

The sky is falling, right? This market is cooked.

Actually these last several days that have formed a "flat-top" have helped bring support closer. One more day like today, and we should be ready to bounce.

I been thinking the same thing. I'm looking at my 13 day. I need something good to happen since I stayed in.:laugh:

 

[Sensei]

8/1/10 - 3/1/11

And now the most recent 6 months:

I'm looking at the 100 day SMA here. It's about to cross the 200 in the next week or two. Look at the first chart - it crossed during the only significant pullback/correction of that bull market. Afterward, the S&P continued higher for another 2-3 months. My point? I think there is still going to be a lot of opportunity to make money in the current bull market. Sticking to my plan of holding as long as we are above the 20 day.

Current allocation:
95% S
5% I blink: FV sucks!)

 

[Sensei]

Always irritates me when I'm in S and the Dow and S&P are up, but I'm down. Oh well, no reason to be greedy. The big pictures is still in tact. After a day like Thursday, I'd expect a few more days of consolidation before another move up.

Overcast and chilly here, but it's a three day weekend and we're going to the beach. No swimming, but bike riding, playing in the sand, and maybe some mini-golf. Check you in a couple days!