1/30/13
Another 72-points for the Dow yesterday following the one-day, 14-point pullback on Monday. The market is keeping the bears frustrated, and while the bulls are enjoying it, they have to be a little nervous about this action coming to an end soon.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]
Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 150"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.0043%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.05%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.52%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.06%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0.65%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Today the Fed's FOMC meeting wraps up and we should get the policy statement / interest rate decision after 2 PM ET. Per sentimenTrader.com, when the S&P 500 has closed at a 52-week high the day before the FOMC announces an interest rate decision, the day of the decision has been positive 6 out of 7 times. It managed to gain over the next two days 3 times and lost ground 4 times.
The S&P 500 is doing its thing. We called this melt up earlier this month and even in December, attributing it to the end to the 2012 capital gains tax selling. While I enjoy patting myself on the back, I am also a little bored with the whole thing. I have not sold yet so I should be enjoying this, but like the nervous bulls I mentioned above, I just assume this is going to end soon. Maybe near 1525 as I mentioned yesterday.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The oscillating type indicators have turned down from recent overbought levels, so it's possible something is in the works.
The dollar's weakness is certainly keeping the bulls happy and we may have seen a breakdown from a pennant formation, which would help stocks some, especially the I-fund.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
On Friday we get the January jobs report and the estimates are looking for a gain of 180,000 jobs and a 7.7% unemployment rate. Could be a market mover if the numbers are significantly above or below the estimates.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
