S Potential Drop

[bailemi]

Hopefully you saw this before I did. The drop today was a little ahead of time. As you can see the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern has just crossed the neckline and has the potential to drop to $635 (W4500) which is about 6.5% from $677. These numbers are targeted.

 

[nasa1974]

Nice to see someone charting the S fund. Hope your wrong about the drop.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Until it closes below 678, the H&S hasn't triggered.

Someone is fighting hard (Big Ben?) to keep all of these index H&S patterns from triggering...

 

[bailemi]

Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't sure if it had to close or break the plain to be triggered. Also, since volume is not a factor in the W4500 I wasn't sure if this was a legitimate H&S.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Thanks for the clarification. I wasn't sure if it had to close or break the plain to be triggered. Also, since volume is not a factor in the W4500 I wasn't sure if this was a legitimate H&S.

Not sure if volume has a dog in this fight... but I only know the basics...

 

[Dutchy]

Until it closes below 678, the H&S hasn't triggered.

Someone is fighting hard (Big Ben?) to keep all of these index H&S patterns from triggering...

Uptrend posted in his blog that S Fund has solid support @675 and after that a potential bounce...

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Uptrend posted in his blog that S Fund has solid support @675 and after that a potential bounce...

Well, we hit the 675, so maybe we keep bouncing...

 

[bailemi]

I believe Uptrend and I are reading the chart the same. I wasn’t fully knowledgeable about the H&S pattern and assumed when the market crossed the $675 neckline it would break down. However, the market must close below the neckline to confirm the H&S and a breakdown with a potential loss is expected. The neckline at the time was support and was proved to be support. Using the Fibonacci Retracement you can see the halfway point (50) is at $696. I was expecting the market to bounce up a bit before the neckline was broken and this would fulfill my expectations. Due to the IPO of FB, which I expect to see a rise in the W4500, the H&S may get skewed. I was expecting the breakdown a week before the IPO and expecting the IPO to gain and test the H&S new resistance line (H&S neckline).