S-fund Challenge! Guesses

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Re: S-fund Challenge!

userque said:
Cactus,

In the event Ebb wants to implement this, do you know of a source of daily G-fund price changes besides the tsp.gov site?
Click to expand...
No, that's the only place I know of, but the point is moot now.

4/4 Down.
 
Re: S-fund Challenge!

ebbnflow said:
The ebbcharts have pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: C 52.8%, S 55.3%, I 49.8%) for tomorrow. Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Thursday/Apr. 03: S-fund up.

04__01__14b.gif
Click to expand...

I'm torn! I don't know if I should cheer or boo the hurt in the S-fund. :sick:

For Apr. 04, 2014:

Pattern: 7/red-grn-grn (WP: C 54.1%, S 53.2%, I 48.8%).
Strategy: long > 54.9%; short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

04__02__14b.gif
[/QUOTE]
 
Re: S-fund Challenge!

I am grateful to this 'study'/challenge. It has caused me to discover some things regarding NN's that I've previously read weren't true by the 'experts.' While any trading conclusions are far off still, of course; I am truly interested in knowing:

Can the next day close be predicted accurately enough to profit from the prediction...by a NN or any other method? And,
How does a proper NN stand up to other systems? (Unfortunately, not many 'other systems' have entered the cage to date, or have left) :suspicious:

I had previously thought there to be too much randomness involved in a next-day-prediction...I'm not so sure that's the case now.:o:D

Most quality studies involve 'blindness' to neutralize unwanted bias/prejudice--intentional or otherwise. So as to not influence others consciously or more likely--subconsciously, I may encrypt my predictions.:toung:
 
Re: S-fund Challenge!

"Most quality studies involve 'blindness' to neutralize unwanted bias/prejudice--intentional or otherwise. So as to not influence others consciously or more likely--subconsciously, I may encrypt my predictions".:toung: NO! Please don't.





  • Most quality studies involve 'blindness' to neutralize unwanted bias/prejudice--intentional or otherwise. So as to not influence others consciously or more likely--subconsciously, I may encrypt my predictions.:toung:
    • |
    • |

 
Re: S-fund Challenge!

Handballer said:
"Most quality studies involve 'blindness' to neutralize unwanted bias/prejudice--intentional or otherwise. So as to not influence others consciously or more likely--subconsciously, I may encrypt my predictions".:toung: NO! Please don't.





  • Most quality studies involve 'blindness' to neutralize unwanted bias/prejudice--intentional or otherwise. So as to not influence others consciously or more likely--subconsciously, I may encrypt my predictions.:toung:
    • |
    • |

Click to expand...

LOL Ok... for now :)

Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk
 
Re: S-fund Challenge!

ebbnflow said:
I'm torn! I don't know if I should cheer or boo the hurt in the S-fund. :sick:

For Apr. 04, 2014:

Pattern: 7/red-grn-grn (WP: C 54.1%, S 53.2%, I 48.8%).
Strategy: long > 54.9%; short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.
Forecast: cash C-fund; cash S-fund; short I-fund.

04__02__14b.gif
Click to expand...

Even though I'm in cash for pattern 7 (WP: 53.2%), the loss today in the S-fund switches pattern 7 (WP: 52.9%) from cash to short because it's now at < 53%.

Long Patterns: 1 (55.1%); 3 (56.7%; 5 (60.1%).
Short Patterns: 2 (51.9%); 7 (52.9%); 8 (52.4%).
Cash Patterns: 4 (53.8%); 6 (54.5%).

For Apr. 07, 2014:

Pattern: 6/red-red-grn (WP: C 52.9%, S 54.5%, I 53.9%).
Strategy: long > 54.9%; short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.
Forecast: short C-fund; cash S-fund; cash I-fund.

.......
04__03__14b.gif
 
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Re: S-fund Challenge!

View attachment 27993

Updated with decrypted guess.

Note: A couple of times, the market "closing" price has actually changed several cents, and many minutes after the close--at least according to Google Finance. The next version of the spreadsheet will be able to easily correct and incorporate these and other corrections--past and future. Should be ready by or before the middle of next week.
 
Re: S-fund Challenge!

NN has found better solution. Guess is Up for tomorrow's close, 4-7-14. 1014.45 to be exact.

UPDATE: Doing some NN tweaking...Final guess by tonight.
 
Last edited:
Re: S-fund Challenge!

userque said:
NN has found better solution. Guess is Up for tomorrow's close, 4-7-14. 1014.45 to be exact.

UPDATE: Doing some NN tweaking...Final guess by tonight.
Click to expand...

Still tweaking and crunching. Guess is still up, but new guess for the close is about 1007
 
Re: S-fund Challenge!

userque said:
Can the next day close be predicted accurately enough to profit from the prediction...by a NN or any other method? And,
How does a proper NN stand up to other systems? (Unfortunately, not many 'other systems' have entered the cage to date, or have left) :suspicious:
Click to expand...

If your interested ILTDTechnical is on the auto tracker
 
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