S-fund Challenge! Guesses

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

View attachment 27919

Explanations/Descriptions will follow.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Chart Legend​

The Simple Average Daily % is simply the sum of your daily percentage gains/losses, divided by the total number of days since starting a trading strategy. This average is a more realistic gauge as to how well a system works. Being 'right' on big movement days weighs more than being right on small movement days. As should be the case.

This average also makes it possible to fairly compare systems even though one has been trading longer than the other.

This average also factors in time. A system that is 100 % right one day per month is not as profitable as a system that is right 90% each trade, but trades everyday it can.

It's a simple average. For example, take it, compound it for 250 days and you've got an easy guess at how you would do over a year.

This average tells you whether your dog will hunt. It's where the rubber meets that road. The only way any system can make money is to average positive daily returns. The greater this number; the greater the returns.

% Correct is the percentage of correct guesses.

Next Guess is the guess for the close the next day. Up or down or cash.

Correct is the number of correct guesses

Total is the number of total guesses

Long Correct is the number of "up" guesses that were correct.

Long Total is the total number of "up" guesses.

Short Correct is the number of "down" guesses that were correct.

Short Total is the total number of "down" guesses.

Days In is the number of trading days since the first guess. It is mainly used to calculate the Simple Average Daily %.

% Change Today is the percent move the market made on your returns. Positive if you're on the right side. Negative if on the wrong side. Zero if in cash. It is mainly used to calculate the Simple Cumulative %.

Simple Cumulative % is the sum of the daily % Changes. It is mainly used to calculate the Simple Average Daily %.

The Chart is sorted first on Simple Average Daily %, when there is a tie there; then the sort moves to Days In as a system having longevity ought have more value than a system with a shorter track record...when they offer the same daily average return. If those two factors are tied, then the sort is based upon % Correct, then finally, alphabetically.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

To be even more accurate, I plan to add a virtual 'balance' tracker of sorts to the chart.

Here's why:

Suppose a trader loses 50% one day; gains 50% the next; According to the current challenge, s/he would be 'even.' In reality they would be negative. (Example: $100 loses 50%=$50; then gains 50% [$25] to become $75, not even at all.)

Dealing with small percentages and for contest purposes, the error may be considered negligible. But since we have the technology to correct it, why not.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

The ebbcharts have pattern 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: C 52.8%, S 55.3%, I 49.8%) for tomorrow. Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

Thursday/Apr. 03: S-fund up.

 

[Cactus]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

4/3 Up.

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

To be even more accurate, I plan to add a virtual 'balance' tracker of sorts to the chart.

Here's why:

Suppose a trader loses 50% one day; gains 50% the next; According to the current challenge, s/he would be 'even.' In reality they would be negative. (Example: $100 loses 50%=$50; then gains 50% [$25] to become $75, not even at all.)

Dealing with small percentages and for contest purposes, the error may be considered negligible. But since we have the technology to correct it, why not.

You've done such a bang-up job on the spreadsheet, userque! We have our own S-fund AutoTracker.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

You've done such a bang-up job on the spreadsheet, userque! We have our own S-fund AutoTracker.

Thanks!

Should have the new version ready today.

4-3-14 Down

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

View attachment 27945

:blink:

Additional explanations/descriptions to follow.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Chart Legend, Part II​

S-Fund / Buy-and-Hold. This represents the performance of 'buying and holding' the S-Fund. A benchmark?

Virtual Balance. Everyone starts with $1,000 virtual dollars. Trading outcomes are applied to this balance after every market close. The resulting balance is carried forward to the next trading session. The use of a 'balance' in tracking the performance of any trading strategy greatly increases the meaningfulness of any conclusions drawn from the tracker. It just got real.

Restarts / Do-overs. If you want to rejigger your system and start anew. You can. Your stats will be wiped clean and you will be given a new $1,000 virtual balance. However, a tally of the number of restarts will be kept in this column.

Simple Average Daily %. This average has been reformulated in light of the above. It takes your current balance, subtracts the initial balance ($1,000), calculates that percentage gain/loss, and divides this gain/loss by the number of days since the initial $1,000. As before, it levels the playing field. New accounts and 'do-overs' can be fairly compared to older accounts. Also like before, it's real-world. It takes however much you made/lost and divides it by the number of days you've had available to make/lose money. It answers the simple, basic, and most important question: Regardless of anything else, how much have you made/lost on average, per day.

Swing Trading Etc. It just dawned upon me:blink: that this spreadsheet can track any trading style; not just day-trading! For example, to trade longer term, you would just be long/short for several days in a row. If you want to go long/short for several days in a row, just post to that effect when you post your guess. A GOOD-TILL-CANCELED kinda thing.

Good Luck!

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Woo-hoo! Can't get any more real than that, userque. We have the power to s-h-o-r-t. With great power, comes great responsibility...Stan Lee.

By the way, how many participants with gonads can we have before the process becomes too much to handle?

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Woo-hoo! Can't get any more real than that, userque. We have the power to s-h-o-r-t. With great power, comes great responsibility...Stan Lee.

By the way, how many participants with gonads can we have before the process becomes too much to handle?

A lot ... Thanks

The work is mainly in noting who is long or short (not much work now but macros will help a lot with that if needed. The spreadsheet does the rest. I made it scalable for that very possibility.

I am working behind the scenes to make one that stores the trades, dates, and closing prices... in relation to each other.

We can also use this to test/compare other strategies or indicators, like trading moon cycles etc. for example to see just how robust they are, or are not.

Sent from my LG-LS980 using Tapatalk

 

[Cactus]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Good Job on the spreadsheet, userque! One question on the Virtual Balance: Does it remain unchanged when in cash or does it grow according to the G Fund? With what it's paying these days I imagin it's not worth considering.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Good Job on the spreadsheet, userque! One question on the Virtual Balance: Does it remain unchanged when in cash or does it grow according to the G Fund? With what it's paying these days I imagin it's not worth considering.

Thanks Cactus.

Interesting question. Not sure how Ebb feels about it, but here are my thoughts:

Adding the G-fund would make the challenge 'not quite' an S-Fund challenge, and;

If adding the G-fund is 'ok,' why not add all the funds, and;

If adding all the funds is 'ok,' what are we doing if not an S-Fund challenge, and;

If that is 'ok,' then it seems to boil down to the question: Do we want an S-Fund challenge to test how well a system can predict the next-day session close, OR do we instead want a tracker that also tracks a running balance?

How say you all?

 

[Cactus]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I guess it comes down to what you consider an S Fund challenge. The simplest is just to consider it cash in your pocket until you buy the stock. That would be the way I would go for simplicity. I just wasn't sure if that is what you were doing. The real world example would put it into your moneymarket accout until you buy the stock. For the TSP I see the G Fund fulfilling that role. That is why I asked. At todays rates it's not much of a difference but during the 80s & 90's it was something to consider. The baseline isn't zero but what you can make in a savings acount.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I guess it comes down to what you consider an S Fund challenge. The simplest is just to consider it cash in your pocket until you buy the stock. That would be the way I would go for simplicity. I just wasn't sure if that is what you were doing. The real world example would put it into your moneymarket accout until you buy the stock. For the TSP I see the G Fund fulfilling that role. That is why I asked. At todays rates it's not much of a difference but during the 80s & 90's it was something to consider. The baseline isn't zero but what you can make in a savings acount.

Good counter-point!

It's up to Ebb. This is his baby: I'm just the help. :blink:

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

I guess it comes down to what you consider an S Fund challenge. The simplest is just to consider it cash in your pocket until you buy the stock. That would be the way I would go for simplicity. I just wasn't sure if that is what you were doing. The real world example would put it into your moneymarket accout until you buy the stock. For the TSP I see the G Fund fulfilling that role. That is why I asked. At todays rates it's not much of a difference but during the 80s & 90's it was something to consider. The baseline isn't zero but what you can make in a savings acount.

Cactus,

In the event Ebb wants to implement this, do you know of a source of daily G-fund price changes besides the tsp.gov site?

 

[ebbnflow]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

We're not in the S-fund per se, but something equivalent to it (like an ETF), so no G-fund gains. We can buy/short on a daily basis already, so let's not be too greedy...Spartacus! :toung:

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

Reputations and current/future subscriber income may be at stake to certain players as the game continues. That said, in order to jump in front of any allegations of 'coat-tail riding' etc., or to protect proprietary commercial work product, or just to be prudent: use encryption:

https://encipher.it/

Post your encrypted guesses, up/down/price targets early. After all active participants have posted their guesses, encrypted or otherwise; post your key in order for everyone to decrypt your previously secret guess.

I have no affiliation to the above site.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

We're not in the S-fund per se, but something equivalent to it (like an ETF), so no G-fund gains. We can buy/short on a daily basis already, so let's not be too greedy...Spartacus! :toung:

That's fair.

 

[userque]

Re: S-fund Challenge!

EnCt24b48d40a05fda81173b35d1d978a88c968ffe28a4b48d40a05fda81173b35d1dNLrYcwb+lwG
QwMGOPVMrX+oiILF8tf45K0FMe+Ngmz5qnxnUBG/Y+qfpk9IVKJSMMUQCIwEmS


Decrypt it at https://encipher.it