RunningFool's Account Talk

[DrFaustus]

Well I suppose I will stay another day. Maybe 1375 will hold. In the long run it may not make much difference. As I have heard they will eventually absorb the TSP into the Social Security fund to help keep it solvent. What a warm and fuzzy feeling!!!NOT

WHOA!!!! Where did you hear this?

 

[RunningFool]

It was is some book I read about as the country moved more and more toward socialism it would combine all retirement plans (nationalize them) into a new improved? Social Security. According to the article by 2040 Social Security and Medicare will consume the entire Federal Budget so they will absorb everything they can get their hands on. The government knows this (the head of GOA acknowledges it) but refuses to do anything about it.

 

[Silverbird]

:blink: And that doesn't take into account that part of the budget may still be tied up in interest payments on debt and/or on the principal. No one seems to be taking payinog off the principal of the debt into account, so that means we may still just be paying necessary interest. Not a good scenerio!

 

[RunningFool]

Keeping 1375 as a bail out point.

 

[RunningFool]

I hate to exit a trade with this much of a loss, but there seems to be no end to this bad economic news for the foreseeable future. Opening down at 1376, one more click down and I'm outa here. Probably go all Frog pond.:worried: Read somewhere we are most likely already in a recession and if the dominoes line up right it could get a lot worse.

 

[RunningFool]

I am now 100% F. I guess they will keep lowering interest rates and run F into the ground also. Need to get my exit strategy for F ready i suppose.

 

[RunningFool]

Could this be capitulation time?? There seems to be no fundamental support for a sustained upturn (or any other upturn) for the foreseeable future. This could be one of those -20%, -30% or worse years. Hold on to your seats folks.

 

[clester]

Could this be capitulation time?? There seems to be no fundamental support for a sustained upturn (or any other upturn) for the foreseeable future. This could be one of those -20%, -30% or worse years. Hold on to your seats folks.

One thing to look for in a capitulation is the VIX over 30. There is still not enough fear.

 

[Birchtree]

It's normal to see divergence in the VIX as we approach a bottom.

 

[RunningFool]

Tomorrow is shaping up to be a down day also. This could be the convergence of all the things wrong with our economic policies coming together for the perfect storm of financial disasters. It is becoming increasing apparent that our political and economic leaders haven't got a clue or the ability to do anything about this coming downturn as that would involve taking a long view of our problems and dealing with them with long term policies. Everything is quick this and quick that. Fix it now, don't worry about next month, year, decade, etc. It's all about the next election. We as a nation are headed for economic doom (social security, Medicare, national debt,etc) and no one even talks about it like it will just go away. We are probably past the point of dealing with these problems in a politically possible way, thus the inaction by our politicians, but this is indicative of our political leaders(?) refusal to deal with these huge problems and the sad thing is we let them get away with it. Fix it now, lower interest rates so my stock won't go down. Keep gas cheap so I can drive my tank to were ever i want to. I want the roads in front of my house in perfect shape, no pot holes, I want cheap food, I want a huge house, etc, etc, but I want the government to pay for it, but don't raise my taxes. I don't want to be inconvenienced in any way. and make sure interest rates are cut so that I am not responsible for borrowing money that I couldn't afford to borrow, to buy a house and a car I couldn't afford to buy. WE are responsible for the problems of this country. We must take back control from these idiotic politicians who have no clue. Don't vote Democrat or Republican, VOTE YOUR COMMON SENSE, This madness must stop. NOW. Wow I feel much better, have a good day.

 

[wv-girl]

Tomorrow is shaping up to be a down day also. This could be the convergence of all the things wrong with our economic policies coming together for the perfect storm of financial disasters. It is becoming increasing apparent that our political and economic leaders haven't got a clue or the ability to do anything about this coming downturn as that would involve taking a long view of our problems and dealing with them with long term policies. Everything is quick this and quick that. Fix it now, don't worry about next month, year, decade, etc. It's all about the next election. We as a nation are headed for economic doom (social security, Medicare, national debt,etc) and no one even talks about it like it will just go away. We are probably past the point of dealing with these problems in a politically possible way, thus the inaction by our politicians, but this is indicative of our political leaders(?) refusal to deal with these huge problems and the sad thing is we let them get away with it. Fix it now, lower interest rates so my stock won't go down. Keep gas cheap so I can drive my tank to were ever i want to. I want the roads in front of my house in perfect shape, no pot holes, I want cheap food, I want a huge house, etc, etc, but I want the government to pay for it, but don't raise my taxes. I don't want to be inconvenienced in any way. and make sure interest rates are cut so that I am not responsible for borrowing money that I couldn't afford to borrow, to buy a house and a car I couldn't afford to buy. WE are responsible for the problems of this country. We must take back control from these idiotic politicians who have no clue. Don't vote Democrat or Republican, VOTE YOUR COMMON SENSE, This madness must stop. NOW. Wow I feel much better, have a good day.

Well, that just about sums it up. Seems like those of in are a captive audience in a stalemate. Who will win? The big boys on WS or Ben? Hopefully, when everyone quits throwing their tantrum, we will have DCA'ed to victory.(Deaming...)

 

[RunningFool]

Waiting for the next irrational move by the Fed before I think about jumping back into the fray.

 

[RunningFool]

I wish these meddling fools would hurry up and get their manipulation of the markets over with so a fellow can sorta figure out what's going on. With only a few trades per month it will be very hard to get a head of the herd. You can see a method to their madness. It will be soooooo frustrating many will go to the L funds. :notrust:

 

[RunningFool]

Guess I will easy back in a little, maybe F 70, C 10, S 10, I 10. That's one trade!!!

 

[RunningFool]

F 50, C 20, S 15, I 15, looks like a small upturn.

 

[RunningFool]

This is a fine kettle of fish, Everything heading down,There is no way to make money this way unless you jump around like a mexican jumping bean and gee and haw just right. Heaven help you if you gee when you shoulda hawed and visa versa. Another bad day in Black Rock. About all a fellow can do is join Birch in the DCA club. Is there any more room in there, Birch?

 

[RunningFool]

Looks like its time to get out of Dodge. My zero key won't work. How can say one hundred percent G without a zero key? One hundred percent G by COB FEB twenty. Besides that there's a full moon with a total eclipse. The G fund may even lose tomorrow. Beware.:cheesy:

 

[Corepuncher]

Looks like its time to get out of Dodge. My zero key won't work. How can say one hundred percent G without a zero key? One hundred percent G by COB FEB twenty. Besides that there's a full moon with a total eclipse. The G fund may even lose tomorrow. Beware.:cheesy:

do a google search for "one hundred", then, look for the number 100 somewhere, copy and paste it!

Here you go:

100

 

[Corepuncher]

Looks like its time to get out of Dodge. My zero key won't work. How can say one hundred percent G without a zero key? One hundred percent G by COB FEB twenty. Besides that there's a full moon with a total eclipse. The G fund may even lose tomorrow. Beware.:cheesy:

If you look at current TSP loan rate, it says 3.5%. Thus, I assume the current return on the G fund is 3.5%? CPI was 4.2%??? Thus, the G fund may actually be losing money!:blink:

No wonder people are selling bonds! The TNX has broken out to the upside, 30 yr fixed rates are GOING UP! NOT GOOD!

If the only reasoning people have for being bullish is that the market has gone down and there is cash on the sidelines, then that is a pretty hollow argument, IMO. People are frantically moving their money around and finding no good place for it. Bonds were safe, but wait, rates are so low you lose money compared to inflation. Put it in stocks...oh wait, there is a bubble bursting and the credit market is sick. Major moving average crossovers are screaming bear market...and they usually average 30% down and much longer. Ok, lets put our money in commodities and make everything else even WORSE!

NIKKEI already down >2.4%. Europe to follow. Our reaction to CPI and Housing is key. The market is precariously perched in this pennant...and any reason to sell will result in a strong leg down, maybe several days in a row. There is so much downward pressure it's not funny. GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE and just wait for the 100 day EMA to cross back above the 200. The moving average crossovers are likely our best bet for TSP now that we have restrictions. If you are down 10% or more, I guess it's harder to get out of the market, so to all of you riding this one out, best of luck. I would still consider taking some off the table.

 

[presskh]

GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE and just wait for the 100 day EMA to cross back above the 200. The moving average crossovers are likely our best bet for TSP now that we have restrictions. If you are down 10% or more, I guess it's harder to get out of the market, so to all of you riding this one out, best of luck. I would still consider taking some off the table.

Hey Puncher, this is similar to my general TSP investment approach also, since we now have the restrictions . I am using both the 50 and 100 day EMAs, in comparison to the 200 day EMA. My overall plan is to put 50% back in stocks if the 50 crosses above the 200 and the remaining 50% if the trend is confirmed by the 100 crossing above the 200. Other than that, I am patiently waiting until I see what I consider definitive oversold conditions for a quick "smash and grab" point or two gain and subsequent exit. I haven't seen these conditions for awhile, though, and have missed the latest mini-rally.