Rolo's Account Talk

Rolo

Active member
Greets.

I am relatively new to investing (one year) and hope I still have some of that beginner's luck.

I think a quote from Mark Twain explainsbeginner's luck, "I never let education get in the way of my learning." Having too much information, we can think ourselves out of a good decision: "Always go with your first impression." I know some of my best stock and fund moves were made on strong, unsubstantiated decisions and some of my worst ones were well informed, thought-out decisions. Perhaps I can offer a fresh perspective.

Being a beginner, I am also ignorant. The Market is a bigworld and I have not been exploring long. I want to continue to pick it apart and master it. To that end, I like animated discussions and sharing of facts and observations.

Prophetic genius or babbling idiot? I do not know, but I do know that I have had my moments at being both. Feel free to let me know when my Idiocy Index is rather high. ;)

See the Rolo's Account topic for transactions and figures.
 
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I am going to try my hand at technical analysis since I may be onto something with the Japanese candlesticks and trendlines.

Start of this discussion here: Trendlines


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Attached is $SPX as of today. I am not sure what these lines are saying, but it sure looks important.


The rising relative strength leaves me bullish.

The MACD fighting convergence leaves me bullish. The blue line crossing below zero leaves me thinking that this will be a short run-up.
 
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Here is DWCP (S Fund) as of today. A nice Rising Three Methods pattern. Buyers clearly dominated Monday in spite of a nice upswing and an overbought market. Buyers still held against the sellers Tuesday. Buyers threw sellers a bone Wednesday. Buyers kept the dominating sellers in check Thursday, keeping everything withing Monday's (the buyer's) trading range.

I think these past three days was the pullback, a speedbump in a recovering rally in a bull market. I stayed 100% in stocks because I did not want to attempt to time such a short range, in time and in price. I need to master timing the larger swings first, then I may try for the small dips.

My instincts tell me that we are in for a mostly-horizontal-yet-rising-steadily market for a while and this pattern seems to fit the transition to that.

Question from young grasshopper: :dah: <-- (Sensei approximation smiley)

Overbought means we are running out of buyers. Why are we running out of buyers?

If no one is interested in buying because of valuations, thensellers will lower prices, the market will fall. If no one is interested in buying because of supply and demand--as in buyers and sellers are holders and they are both happy where they are--then prices will go up, for there is a lack of supply for those who still wish to buy.

If buyers and sellers alike are holders, then most everyone must be bullish, regardless of what the sentiment index/poll/whatever says. I do not believe in an "undecided". If you are holding, then you are bullish, otherwise you would not be holding. If you are not holding, then you are not bullish and therefore you must be bearish, waiting for a buy point, at which time you will be holding and therefore bullish. Money = mouth, mouth = blaah-blaah-blaah. :cool:

Simplified, can an overbought condition be caused buy one of two things: either lack ofsupply or a lack of demand?

A lack of supplycreatesprice-pressure. Buyers pressure sellers to sell with higher bids. The more steadfast the sellers, the more pressure from buyers is required and up goes the price.

What is required to break resistance? Pressure! I think this may explain why support lines and resistance lines are often the same line.

If I understand this correctly, then this may describe the market's condition today, overcoming resistance with pressure, hence, an overbought condition (in this circumstance) is necessary and desirable.

This is what I have been thinking since last week. I think abstractly, so it is impossible for me to articulate my thoughts at first; I have to take time to figure out how to convert them into language.

So, yes, that was all a question. Am I understanding "market forces" correctly so far?
 
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Here is a R3M pattern from last year. You can see it got ugly for a month afterwards. There are some differences between then and now but I cannot explain them.
 
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$SPX from 2001. I think this represents today pretty closely. I just looked at a three year chart and picked a spot that looked like today; this is where I zoomed in first.

heh, First, the "Wow" in there is at the five consecutive identical days. I would have interpreted that as support for certain. Boy am I glad I wasn't in the market yet then.

On the R3M pattern, blend day 2 and day 3 together and you will have a nearly identical representation of this week. I believe Monday will look like day 6, the second long white day, and Tuesday will have a gap up. I do not expect much after Tuesday, maybe a small sag. At the moment, this chart is pretty much what I have in mind for the nextfew weeks.

I am standing pat at 30C/70S, going on the premise that we are now at the resistance-turned-support line.

I wish I had more C and I will adjust soon.The FROis telling me I should do that for Monday close. Thoughts, Frizz?
 
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I am really glad I only see #'s, WHEW. I have re-calculated my FRO, I took the highs and lows of the market and threw 2 of the highs and 2 fo the lows, but I used the numbers that were next in line, then divided by the amt. of numbers I used, . The F diff is between 314 and 266, we just hit the 315 and the way my FRO works we should go down some more, and yes I should of used my first reaction and moved to the G fund when I was going to, but I listened to the expert (Rolo never told me he was only doing this for a year, though he was an expert), and the S fund lost 2 pts. Now you owe me 2 dinners. :dude:

As for the S to C differential, high is 125, low is 86, right now we are at 90. Unless the market has changed since last June, the FRO tells me if you were to play the stocks, it would be in the S fund, but I am still playing the G fund for now. I have been doing some #'s for the G to F fund. In my range it is 9.86 to 9.94, small range, so if the F fund gets below 9.87, right now at 9.89, if I am still in the G fund, I will transfer to the F fund until it goes past 9.91. The I fund is way up there again. My FRO tells me 41 to 14. We are at 47, so the I fund is way to high. But again I am in the G, so doesn't matter to me right now.

Well Rolo, now you have my thoughts. Happy Hunting :dude:
 
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Frizz B. wrote:
I am really glad I only see #'s, WHEW.
LOL!

Frizz B. wrote:
I have re-calculated my FRO, I took the highs and lows of the market and threw 2 of the highs and 2 fo the lows, but I used the numbers that were next in line, then divided by the amt. of numbers I used, . The F diff is between 314 and 266, we just hit the 315 and the way my FRO works we should go down some more

Yes,315 and is now 299. Myrange is currently 285-311. I am counting on it going above 309 one more time.

Frizz B. wrote:
and yes I should of used my first reaction and moved to the G fund when I was going to, but I listened to the expert (Rolo never told me he was only doing this for a year, though he was an expert), and the S fund lost 2 pts. Now you owe me 2 dinners. :dude:

hehe, Hey, I just said what I was doing and why.Now I am going to laugh very hard :uif S closes at $13.07(:}1.5%)or more on Monday, then you will owe me dinner. If not, then I suppose I will have these words as a snack. :x

Now I know how the golden calf felt. :dude: As much as I flap my trap on here, I am sure my limited experience is out in the open. :P It is my disclaimer, my "out", my "get out of jail free card"for when I am totally wrong and make a brass ass of myself. :D

Does this mean the honeymoon is over?:? rofl

Frizz B. wrote:
As for the S to C differential, high is 125, low is 86, right now we are at 90. Unless the market has changed since last June, the FRO tells me if you were to play the stocks, it would be in the S fund, but I am still playing the G fund for now.

Wouldn't that mean C is the way to go since Sδ is farther from zero-base than Cδ is? (I am thinking for only the next few weeks, not overall, and if you wanted to stay in stocks.)

 
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No, the lower the number, the more I would play the S fund. Last June, the C, S, and I funds were almost equal, since then the S and the I has taken off from the C. So when the Differential is low, play the S, and if the numbers are high, I might think of the C. The only problem has been, the C fund catches up on the S in a losing market. Until the market changes, where the C fund starts to outgain the S in the upswing, I do not play the C fund. Will do some recalculations to see what has happened to the funds in the last 2 months. Later on this weekend I will get to it.
 
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Soooooo, Frizz, when ya comin' to Florida? heh (I can use that egg-smiley now)

Perhaps I should follow the FRO as originally designed before I rebel against it. :D

I was really looking forward to a long white day today. :(

I will do the shares/account/$100K thing soon. I have to keep up on it, trying to figure out when I made a transfer and at what price is a PITA and I cannot always figure it out if I forget to follow up on one; TSP's lack of record-keeping on their site blows. Quarterly statements? Paper? Snail mail? Whaa? Get with the 21st century people! Haven't you heard? Algore invented this Internet thing! :dude:
 
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Like Tom says Rolo, my system takes all the thinking away and just follow the numbers. I think you are looking at the numbers and trying to analyze the info that you get from the Stock world. Who knows. The differential is right around 285 now, and probably tommorrow I will be moving back to the Stocks. Are you having trouble figuring out how to change your shares for each fund when you make a trade, with the program that I sent to you. Also, try to send this program to Tom, I have tried and Tom never gets it from me. I think you have to go away from the TSPTALK forum and do it by regular email.

Rolo, I have no plans on Florida, quite a bit away. We will meet when we both retire Millionares from this TSP. This would be a kool thing to do. Have a yearly meeting once we all start to retire and have time on our hands. When we are all millionairs, we can start a standing weekend get away at different locations, each member can have a get together. It would be nice to be able to see each other in person. Just had a thought, we all could meet in Vegas. Even now I could take a weeks vacation and start meeting in Vegas. If no one minds Reno, I go there almost every year, the last weekend in July. In Sparks, Nevada they have a Volleyball tournament, (used to be the National Tourney, but they changed the name). I play men's doubles on Satuday and then Reverse Coed doubles with my wife on Sundays. We have a group between 16 and 30 who go there from the Portland area to play. It would really be kool to stay for a week. We could also rent a condo with 3 to 6 rooms for whoever could make it. It would also be kool to take a weeks vacation on a pleasure boat. There are so many different places to visit in the US. This would give me a good reason to visit them.

So my proposal is: How many TSPTALKERS would like to do a "Same time, different place" weeks vacations get togethers.
 
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Frizz B. wrote:
Like Tom says Rolo, my system takes all the thinking away and just follow the numbers. I think you are looking at the numbers and trying to analyze the info that you get from the Stock world. Who knows.
Yes. The damage done to myself seems to be directly proportional to how much thinking I do. :* :D

You hit it, too, I am applying single-fast-growing stock-picking logic to this and that is not appropriate. I just need to STFU and listen for a while. :x:u



Frizz B. wrote:
Are you having trouble figuring out how to change your shares for each fund when you make a trade, with the program that I sent to you. Also, try to send this program to Tom, I have tried and Tom never gets it from me. I think you have to go away from the TSPTALK forum and do it by regular email.
Yes, but I plan to spend more time on figuring it out and setting it up; I needed a break. I hate math, heh. I will hook Tom up.

Frizz B. wrote:
Rolo, I have no plans on Florida, quite a bit away. We will meet when we both retire Millionares from this TSP.

Sounds like a plan, on both counts.

Frizz B. wrote:
So my proposal is: How many TSPTALKERS would like to do a "Same time, different place" weeks vacations get togethers.

You should start a new topic. I'm game!
 
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Blaaaaaaahhhhhhhhiiiiiiiii-I'm back....mostly. My mind is still partially in PT land. :D

My last contribution went to the G Fund and I wanted to give it something to do, so I am now 30C/40S/30I. I Fund looked like a good buy point to cease missing out on its gains, people like C less these days so I backed off of C, and small caps do better at the beginning of a rally...assuming we have one soon.

Not a whole lot of reasoning went into my allocation since I do not want to think too much just yet; I just did whatever felt good. Only 17% of my portfolio is TSP, so it only gets 17% of my thinking right now. :dude:
 
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Hey Rolo,

I just started a Scottrade account today. Can you give me the stock funds I can use which mimic the C, S, and I funds? Also,, are that funds that mimic the F and G funds?

Have you heard of RYVNX? It supposedly doubles the inverse of the NASDAQ. So if the NASDAQ crashes, this fund prospers. May be good to get into when the markets drop?

Thanks,

mlk_man
 
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Frizz B. is the guru on TSP-emulating ETFs. You would need to use ETFs since you cannot day-trade actual funds; they take a few days to settle and you will get dinged $17 everytime you sell before holding it 90 days. Also, you cannot short-sell funds.

RYVNX looks like a Rydex fund, which requires a minimum of $25K. A good idea in a declining market, but is this a declining market? Not really...it is a correcting one, staying within a clear trading range, and we have no substantial reason to think it will bust at this time.

Track what Frizz B. is doing, he has the idea with short-selling ETF's. I like the idea, two choices: you either buy on an increase, or short-sell on a decline, and no real reason to sit on cash.

Personally, I am gravitating away from mutual funds since I do better with individual stocks. My IRA's are mutual funds and I am contemplating moving them to Scottrade and buying stocks akin to Warren Buffett's style of investing and only sell when something goes wrong or when I can replace them with something better. (Shya! Right! I'd probably actively trade in my IRA's too!)
 
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You will likely learn more about yourself than you will about money, markets, economics, etc. when playing the market.

[align=right]- I, about a year ago[/align]

I had no idea what I was in for when I said that.

Earlier this week I was diagnosed Bipolar II with Borderline Personality Disorder.

I am just coming out of shock over this.

I had always known that I was "not quite normal", but I had no idea on that one either!

Apparently, stress exacerbates these. I've had a pile of stressors lately, but at the top of the list are my quitting smoking and my playing the market.

Anyway, whatdahell does this have to do with my TSP account? Not a whole lot, really, other than I have been mistakenly saying I was 100% S in recent conversations and that if I sounded like two different people (I get that a lot) then, well, there's the explanation. Also, if I got snarky, it wasn't personal.

When I checked my TSP balance today, I was surprised to see that I had 40% in C. Wow. I don't remember doing that a month ago. I even updated my Rolo's Account topic to reflect the change. Hmm.

So...holding 60S/40C, new $ going to S. I will look at moving averages, revisit the FRO, and follow mlk_man's account to decide if I want to change it.

If stocks drop to new lows, I will bail to an F/G mix.

I am staying away from I until it establishes a trend, but will likely stay away period.

My TSP account, YTD is pretty much even, only :{ 0.0136%

My IRA's are in "safe stuff" now: bonds, junk bonds, REITs, cash.

I withdrew a lot of cash from my Scottrade account for other stuff and only stuck with my long-term SIRI, XMSR, and WBSN.

Going defensive this late in the game was probably not the best choice--I should have done it sooner, or not done it at all--but...heh...I really needed to regain my sanity.
 
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Am I talking to Rolo or ROLO right now? :PI agree with ya about the I fund, little too shaky for me right now.

How do I go about taking money out of my Scottrade account. Came seem to find that info anywhere. Guess I could call em, but I hate phones............
 
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mlk_man wrote:
Am I talking to Rolo or ROLO right now? :P 

That's pretty freakin' funny in light of recent events! :oo


You should have gotten a debit card and a checkbook with your Scottrade account; I have them but have never used them. I did use the ABA/Account# (off of the checkbook) to transfer money online once and it worked.

I use credit cards for all purchases, then use cash to pay them when they are due. For bigger ticket items, I will still use a credit card, then pay it Scottrade, whereupon I will have the grace period to make the funds available.
 
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YTD TSP IRR: -1.53%

One year return: +10.48%

I don't even wanna look at my other stuff.


MarketTimer wrote in the other Rolo account transactions only topic:
Rolo,

  When yields move lower, bonds go up in price and the F fund goes up in value.  When yields move higher, bonds go down in price and the F fund goes down in value.  

  Do you have any concern that yields will start moving up on you?  It is to the point where the yield curve...wha whaaa wa waaa...Charlie Brown....wahwawah waaa

blaaaablablaaaaaaaa-all this thinking and going no-where. Sure, this may be my wonky synapses talking but that is my result so far this year.

Analysis-schmalysis...I see S/C go down and F go up...so where am I gonna put my money? (This is the goal, isn't it?)

heh

It is only for a few days/weeks until C/S launch from their moving averages to cut losses rather than my skin. All of that long term yield curve/bond value/blahblah stuff is irrelevant.

Rational decisions haven't been working so I will try irrational ones. I'm goin' where the action is.

My junk bonds in my IRAs are turning meager profits with little risk. I needed to do the transfer...to...literally...keep my sanity. I cannot cope with instability in my head and in my portfolio at the moment. :D
 
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