Rod's Account Talk

[vectorman]

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Hi Joel,my names Dan, I live in TN. ,while you're staying in, do you still keep some shares in the G fund or are you all in the C,S/I. Thanks Sorry Rod wrong place

 

[vectorman]

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Rod, I know you missed last thur and fri. like myself.Did you play in last years bull market. Since we coming in at higer prices, I guess that leaves us a few shares short. How do you pick up extra shares in a bull mkt. What do I have to watch out for, do you know of any pit falls, beside emotional decision making? Hope you have a big blessing this week.

 

[Rod]

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

Rod,

I'm with you Bud. I've been a buy/holder for about one month now, with almost 7.5% gains across the board. Nothing magical on my part, I've found throughout the years that Oct-Dec 31st has been a good time to be in equities. October has been up 7 of the last 8 years, even in Bear markets (except for 2001, I believe) Had I taken my own advice and stayed in the whole October, I would be up 12-13% just since Oct 1st. Nothing magical, just getting in and staying in for a while Oct-Dec 31st. Just my thoughts. Lord bless you.

Joel

Yeah... I missed out on most of the election rally but did catch the wave for 1 day of it. Then I became bearish after the interest rate hike and missed that rally too.:?

It's not that I lost a lot of$$$, I simply missed some important gains because of historical trends that did not pan outin my favor orI did not want to buy in high. But then it went even higher. That's when I decided to buy in no matter what because I thought the market would go even higher- and it is. Then the day I bought in- 16 Nov, I had a loss. Go figure!

That's when I decided it's best to even out my allocations across the board a bit until the market "levels out". Since I've done that, I've practically made up my losses from the 16th.

16th losses:$58.91

17th gains: $51.12

So, some buy&holding may be a good strategy at this point in time. I'm still trying to decide. We'll se what today brings when I am normally 100%G.

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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vectorman wrote:

Rod, I know you missed last thur and fri. like myself.Did you play in last years bull market. Since we coming in at higer prices, I guess that leaves us a few shares short. How do you pick up extra shares in a bull mkt. What do I have to watch out for, do you know of any pit falls, beside emotional decision making? Hope you have a big blessing this week.

I'm fairly new at this too- as my disclaimer states. So, I wasn't trading last year.

Those are great questions though, which I'd love to know the answer to also. I won't sit here and pretend that I know the answers, or attempt to give you "good" advice. It would be best that you pose this question to Tom who is a seasoned investor.

God Bless:^

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks Rod, Tom said after a good night sleep he'll try to answer some of my questions. Stay focused on what really matters ( I had to learn the hard way, but thankfully got taken to the wood shed. and shone by way of the Light my bondage ). God bless

 

[TheProphet]

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I am 100% S :^

 

[Rod]

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I'm feel'n bullish...

Effective Monday:

70 S

30 I

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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Well, today was DEAD RED. But let's not become discouraged.

I'm glad I was only 30G 20C 20S 30I.

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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At least my 70%S allocation for Monday should set me up nicely to buy in low.

Hopefully Monday will see GREEN!:^

 

[VictorPR]

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Amen..................

 

[Rod]

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As most of you know, I am normally 100%G on Mondays but I decided to get invested since Thanksgiving week is historically a strong week.

I may very well take a hit on Monday because of what transpired Friday, though. But I had already made my transfer for Monday... so I'm stuck. There are a lot of us "stuck" for Monday. But if Monday does go down hill, I plan to remain invested and ride this one out because those Thanskgiving weekgains will eventually arrive.

So, don't become discouraged if Monday is RED!

God Bless:^

 

[Dakota]

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i'm with you 50c50s go greeen

 

[Rod]

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I may very well stick it out the entire week- 70S 30I.

The I Fund shouldperform quite nicely today... making up for yesterday, and then some.

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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I've had some nice gains so far with my 70%S 30%I allocation. Of course, I will be remaining with this allocation thru Friday.

I will most probably be 100%G effective Monday...stay tuned.

Happy Thanksgiving & God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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Looks like the I Fund is going GREEN.

For those of you in the I Fund with me, expect some good gains today.

Isn't it nice to stillbeplaying the marketwhile the US markets are closed?

It's agood dayto keep a few chips on the table.

Happy Thanksgiving & God Bless! :^

 

[Rod]

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Tom is getting me hooked on trends. I went to the TSP site and looked at the CSIshare prices for the last Monday of themonth dating back to June 03.

Here is what I found:

Jun 03: Red Day

July 03: Green Day (Hey, I used to like that band) :dude:

Aug 03: Red Day

Sep 03: Red Day (I Fund)

Oct 03: Green Day

Nov 03: Green Day

Dec 03: Green Day

Jan 04: Red Day (I Fund)

Feb 04: Red Day (S,C Fund)

Mar 04: Green Day

Apr 04: Red Day (S,C Fund)

May 04: Green Day

Jun 04: Red Day (S,C Fund)

Jul 04: Red Day (Tuesday)

Aug 04: Red Day

Sep 04: Red Day

Oct 04: Red Day (S,I Fund)

As you can see, the Red days outweigh the Green. Although last Nov was Green, there has only been 2 Green days across the boardthus so far this year. It's really a tough call to make seeing the data above since not all the stock funds are affected on each Red day. It's just too much of a "mixed bag".

Therefore, effective Monday I will be:

100%G

Stay tuned for my comments on the first Monday of the month.

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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Well, I played it safe today...too safe. As of 0700 EST, it looks like the I FUND will have some hefty gains.

Sometimes you are right with the seasonality trends, and sometimes you are wrong.

As for the I Fund, it looks as if I was wrong. We still have to see how the US markets shape up. Seasonally speaking, tomorrow is a REDday. Do I go with it? Or do I go against it? I think I'm going to go against it this time around. We'll just have to see how it pans out. As a reminder, I'm only an amateur trying to feel the market out for myself. So if you follow my moves, they are at your own risk.

Effective Tuesday:

60 S

40 I

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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smine writes from another thread,

Rod, will you still stick with your 100S plan for Tuesday?

____________________________________________

As of lately, I haven't been sticking with my entire plan for Monday thru Friday. It was working pretty good up to the election. I nowneed to tweak it a bit, and will probably do so after the New Year.

Seasonally speaking though, tomorrow is a RED day. So, I do not want to expose myself too much losing my nice gains from last week. There may also be more gains in the I Fund for tomorrow. It's really hard to say.

Therefore, I'll be 60S 40I for tomorrow.

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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Rod wrote:

We still have to see how the US markets shape up.

Looks as if they are shaping :{. If this continues- a verygood move on my part.

But, I still should have stayed invested somein the I FUND.

Lesson learned- Do not completely pull out of the I Fund around this time of year unless you have a REALLY good reason to do so.:'

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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Wow... it looks as if the I FUND has taken a drastic change for the worse:{.

It was looking so promising...

Oh well, at least I'm no longer kicking myself in the butt for being out of it!!!

I guess I need to cut myself some slack from now and NOT knock my moves early on in the day.

God Bless:^