Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

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What fund will you be in on Wednesday when the Fed raises interest rates? I believe I will be100%S. Why? Well, when the Fed raises interest rates, it's a good indicator that the economy is improving.:dah:

Let's look at earnings in the S Fund on the day of the last 3 rate hikes:

Jun 30: earned 10 cents per share

Aug 10: earned earned 20 cents per share

Sep 21: earned 10 cents per share

There was no loss on the news of the rate hike.

Odds are, tomorrow will be a green day for the S Fund.:^

God Bless

 

[Rod]

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Tuesdays are generally GREEN, but there are some RED Tuesdays. Overall, the GREEN outweighs the RED on Tuesdays.

So, that is why I am usually 100%S on Tuesdays.

Hopefully today will not be one of those RED days. But, it's gonna get me sooner or later.:s

God Bless :^

 

[Rod]

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Although Nov 11 is historically aGREEN day, we now have the interest rate hike to add into the equation. For that reason, I will be 100%Gthru Mondaybecause the day or 2after an interest rate hike are usually RED days across the board in CSI.

At least, they have been these past 3 hikes. Check out the 2 days after Jun 30, Aug 10, and Sep 21 for yourself:

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/share-prices.html

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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Well, today was not as GREEN as I had hoped for. The Cisco earnings report put a slight damper on the Techs, keeping them weighed down. If it wasn't for that, I would have done a little better. It was the smart thing to do though- being 100%S- on the day of an interest rate hike since historically they are GREEN days across the board. But let this be lesson in that history doesn't always repeat itself. But, I'm still a satisfied customer since I have been on a roll the past week and a half.

Shugging it off the small lossand moving on.

Effective Thursday- 100%G thru Monday.

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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I was "on the money" afterall! :u

The S Fund ended up with a 6 cent gain while I thought itwas down at market close. I must have had a brainfart. So, ignore my previous post.

History does repeat itself. So remember, the next time the Fed raises interest rates- BE 100%S the day of the hike!

God Bless!:^

 

[Rod]

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Well for those of you who stayed invested, it looks like today will be a nice GREEN day afterall. Lower oil prices and the death of Arafat helped to fuel today's rally.

There were a few factors why I was not invested today:

1. The day(s) following a rate hike are historically RED days.

2. Thursdays are normally RED days.

3. And most importantly... since the TSP office was closed, I could not change my allocation for Friday if need be. For that reason, I went to "safe haven" in100%G thru Monday.

Enjoy your gains if you were invested!:dude:

God Bless:^

 

[Rod]

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I hated that I missed out on Thursday's & Friday's gains. But, I explained above why I was out.

Now, I will not be sitting on the side-lines awaiting a "low buy-in", because quite frankly it may not happen for some time.

Therefore, since Nov, Dec, and Jan are the strongest trading months, I will be jumping in on Tuesday @ 100%S, possibly moving more aggressivelyinto the I Fund.

Now is the time to remain aggressive! No look'n back...

God Bless:^

 

[vectorman]

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Hi Rod, I put myself on the sidelines for the some reasons you mentioned. After making out on the last three hikes, I fell victim to habit and lock brain.I hate going to school of hard knocks concerning stocks. I guess 50/50 would have been the better choice, who would of thought of so much excitement in two days. I had alot of practice working the bear side. Now I just got to start thinking bull. I've been down before;now I have to work a little harder to keep that positive cash flow coming.Answer me this please- with all that jumping back and fore into the different funds you do. Do you pay attention to the number of shares you have or lose, or do you just look for that positive cash flow at the end of day?Thanks Better luck on Tuesday and beyond....

 

[Rod]

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vectorman wrote:

Do you pay attention to the number of shares you have or lose, or do you just look for that positive cash flow at the end of day?Thanks Better luck on Tuesday and beyond....

Yes, I do pay attention to the number of shares I lose. By jumping back in on Tuesday, I may be down about 8 shares... depending on how Monday performs.

God Bless:^

 

[vectorman]

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Iknow you have missed out on other opportunity gains. How do you deal with the frustration? I couldn't sleep at all friday night. I've only been moving my funds since May. I had to come from behind before, but I been wondering just how close to a correction we may be. We only got out at 1163 sp500, the talking heads are saying look for 1250 sometime next year. I really appreciate your up lifting attitude.I use to be buy and hold,but I thought I try to learn how to follow the trends just for this year. God Bless

 

[Rod]

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vectorman wrote:

Iknow you have missed out on other opportunity gains. How do you deal with the frustration? I couldn't sleep at all friday night. I've only been moving my funds since May. I had to come from behind before, but I been wondering just how close to a correction we may be. We only got out at 1163 sp500, the talking heads are saying look for 1250 sometime next year. I really appreciate your up lifting attitude.I use to be buy and hold,but I thought I try to learn how to follow the trends just for this year. God Bless

Yeah, I was a little frustrated at first... to be honest. But then I reminded myself why I was out. I had legitimate reasons to be out. Then I remind myself again that it could have turned the other way. Then I ask myself, would I hadrather been on the uptick, or on the downtick? Then I answer myself- I'd rather not have any gains than to lose them. Then I tell myself- what goes UP must come DOWN. There will be other opportunities.

Finally, as a Christian, I must constantly remind myself that the love of money is the root of all sorts of evil.

Therefore, I try not to lose any sleep... it's only money. I won't allow it to control me or my emotions. I control it.

God Bless:^

 

[vectorman]

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Thanks. Hope you see more green through the coming weeks. I noticed you'll be 100% S starting Tuesday. Are you always all or nothing?

 

[Rod]

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vectorman wrote:

Thanks. Hope you see more green through the coming weeks. I noticed you'll be 100% S starting Tuesday. Are you always all or nothing?

Thanx! Not always. But Tuesdays are historically GREEN days.

So, I'm normally 100%S.

 

[Rod]

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Looks like the pullback is happening... a little sooner than I had anticipated.

Effective Wednesday:

30%G

50%C

20%I

God Bless:^

 

[Guest]

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Rod,

How is this trend investing system of yours working so far for you? Just curious. It is quite fascinating. Love the Cross, dude!

Joel

 

[Rod]

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jgpalmerdds wrote:

Rod,

How is this trend investing system of yours working so far for you? Just curious. It is quite fascinating. Love the Cross, dude!

Joel

The election sort of threw a wrench into it. I'm now working the wrinkles out, while the market tries to level itself out.

Thanx for the comments!:^

 

[Rod]

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Effective Thursday:

30%G

20%C

20%S

30%I

God Bless:^

 

[vectorman]

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Hi Rod, I see you are finally splitting your shares. Are you done jumping in and out of funds every other day? Do you plan on sitting in some for awhile? It seems that the ones who stay in and follow the trend line are doing better. What do you think? I made some poor choices that I 've had to wrestle through, but I have learned volumes. Now I just have to try and remember it. God Bless

 

[Rod]

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vectorman wrote:

Hi Rod, I see you are finally splitting your shares. Are you done jumping in and out of funds every other day? Do you plan on sitting in some for awhile? It seems that the ones who stay in and follow the trend line are doing better. What do you think? I made some poor choices that I 've had to wrestle through, but I have learned volumes. Now I just have to try and remember it. God Bless

Yeah, I may use this split for a little while. Then again I may not. I am normally 100%G for Thursdays, but with how things have been going lately tomorrow may bring in a little green... especially in the I Fund.

God Bless:^

 

[Guest]

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Rod,

I'm with you Bud. I've been a buy/holder for about one month now, with almost 7.5% gains across the board. Nothing magical on my part, I've found throughout the years that Oct-Dec 31st has been a good time to be in equities. October has been up 7 of the last 8 years, even in Bear markets (except for 2001, I believe) Had I taken my own advice and stayed in the whole October, I would be up 12-13% just since Oct 1st. Nothing magical, just getting in and staying in for a while Oct-Dec 31st. Just my thoughts. Lord bless you.

Joel