Rod's Account Talk

[Guest]

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Timer and Milk,

Good luck. I am with Hot Rod (100% G Fund). This is not Vegas...the risk reward is againstus right now:endI feel).

MT

 

[Guest]

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Yesterday's pullback was "expected", I still think we'll be okay. Unless of course the RNC get's blown up or something. But I really don't see that happening. It's been almost 3 years since 9/11. Anything happen? I think New York was a great call. You know the people that live are "looking for anything suspicious". :shock:

 

[Guest]

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Milk,

The rest of the week:

[*]Tuesday morning, the Conference Board, a private research firm, will release its closely watched gauge of consumer confidence for August. Economists expect the index to dip to 103 from 106.1 in July. (bad news)



[*]Also on Tuesday, NAPM-Chicago will release its index of August business activity in the Chicago region. Economists expect the index to fall to 60 from 64.7 in July. (bad news)



[*]Wednesday morning brings the Institute for Supply Management's gauge of national manufacturing activity in August. Economists expect the index to dip to 59.9 from 62 in July. (bad news)



[*]Thursday morning, the Labor Department will report on new jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 28. Claims rose to 343,000 in the week ending Aug. 21. (last thursday was bad because of a bad report) Repeat?



[*]In a separate report, the department will publish its revised estimate of productivity growth in the second quarter. Economists expect productivity grew at a revised 2.8 percent rate, versus an initial reading of 2.9 percent. (bad news)



[*]Friday morning brings the August report on unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. Economists expect payrolls grew by 150,000 jobs, compared with 32,000 in July. The jobless rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to hold steady at 5.5 percent. (could be very horrible). WIth the unemployment claims raising I see a miss again. Bad thing 150K is the amount of new people coming into the job market - if we can not even make that job growth the economy is not growing but stagnant - in my opionion.


Later Friday morning, the ISM releases its gauge of service-sector activity in August. That index is expected to dip to 62 from 64.8 in July. (more bad news)
The risk reward to me looks negative.

MT

 

[Guest]

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Always the pessimist!! LOL Just kidding, even if we do pullback all week, I don't expect it to be much. We'll get it back and then some next week. Bad news is good news right?

 

[Guest]

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Milk,

What are your thoughts on the job report? I feel if we have a bad week then a horrible job report a lot of folks are going to chuck the towel in. Both I hope for the best for you. I just feel there are times to be in the market and times to hunker down and see a positive trend.

MT

 

[Guest]

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I''m not all that worried about jobs reports. From what I remember, most companies beat expectations for the 2Q. That should factor into more jobs later no?

 

[Rod]

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Timer wrote:

Rod wrote:

100% G effective 31 Aug.

C'mon Rod, you usually stick these things out. It's just a breather, it's going up. (Am I trying to convince myself?)

I know I do... but my "gut" told me to "hide".

 

[Guest]

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Famous last works Milk.

"I am not worried about the job report."

IMO - this is the make or break for Pres Bush. If we get a horrible report like last month (dow fell 169, NASDAQ 44) that will sway a lot of undecided.

Companies do not make reports. State governments report to the fed gov (BLS) who compiles the report. From what I remember the weekly unemployment reports have been pretty bad the previous three weeks.

News for August 2004:

Nortel reported a couple thousand lay offs.

Disney reported big lay offs.

Bank of America reported big lay offs.

Fleet Bank reported big lay offs

Lycos laid of 20%

Toys R' Us reported lay offs

for the month of August (just a flavor). I did not see many stories of hirings for August. Have you???

I wish you well. Risk reward is not tilted in the right way to me right now.

Good luck!

MT

 

[Rod]

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Hey MT, when do you plan to get invested again?

 

[Guest]

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Rod,

I am thinking about putting my toe into the F fund. Because if we keep getting bad economic data the yield on the 10 year will continue to drop and the NAV will go up. A bad job report will really be a boon to this fund. I want to see what Intel has to say later in the week. I probably am going to regret not taking hoping in now but the lowering of the oil prices should be bad for the F fund.

Capital preservation is the goal at this point.

Take care!

MT

 

[Timer]

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MarketTimer wrote:

I am thinking about putting my toe into the F fund.

MT, I may be off base in my interpretation, but seems like our buds on this site are biased toward stock funds. I've made lots of money in F in dog down markets over the years.

Comments from the gallery?

 

[Rod]

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Thanx guys!:^

Yes, comments please???:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Rod/Timer,

Not to make excuses but I have been sick since last Friday (running a 102fever). When I was going to G Fund 31 Aug (that I stated last week) it was partly based on the S&P 500 fund changes and that index fundHAD to buys stocks 31 Aug to have their holdings in line with the index. I totally spaced it until I saw the stock market take off at 3:45PM, I said ALL CRAP! This effect will happen at the end of next month to for the end of the quarter reports - expect the last 15 minutes to be window dressing buying - that is a good day to be vested in the U.S. stock funds. I had it written now on my note page with two big stars S&P 500 REBALANCE - 31 AUG 04. DARN! I will not make that mistake again...but I just wanted to point it out to you guys that is something to look for if you want to time the market.

I am going to bet against the market and have gone 10% F fund and 10% I fund effective the close today. I should of done this effective yesterday but I have not been thinking straight. I will be in this until at least through the week.I will be in bed trying to recover from this sickness and hopefully have a better pulse on the market.

Have a great week!

MT

 

[Rod]

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Thanx MT:^

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

What are your thoughts on the job report? I feel if we have a bad week then a horrible job report a lot of folks are going to chuck the towel in. Both I hope for the best for you. I just feel there are times to be in the market and times to hunker down and see a positive trend.

MT

Well apparently it isn't the job report that is bringing down the house today, but something sure is. Intel? Yukos? Hurricane? Little of each? Remember that on average, the week following the RNC is down. Be careful. Be interesting to see what happens when the big investors start investing again. Up? Down? Who knows. I'll be sitting on the sidelines waiting for coach to put me in. As usual!

 

[Rod]

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Still 100% G. Thank GOD, since the TSP office is "down" due to Ivan!

 

[Rod]

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30% C

50% S

20% I

 

[Rod]

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100% S effective 20 Oct.

 

[Rod]

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Rod wrote:

100% S effective 20 Oct.

BAD MOVE.

I'm back:

30% C

50% S

20% I

 

[Rod]

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I'm trying out anew system. So, until further notice my transfers shall be as follows:

Monday: 100 G

Tuesday: 100 S

Wednesday: 30 G 50 S 20 I

Thursday: 100 G

Friday: 50 S 50 I

God Bless:^