Rod's Account Talk

[Mcqlives]

It may be premature, and I hope this is not a curse...but for those that got in today I think it is safe to say...WELL PLAYED!

Have a great weekend everyone!

 

[Rod]

I've become complacent with last years easy peasy market.

But, that end of day boom usually is smart money.

Could be a good sign. Could be very good.

I sure hope you are right. I tend to agree with you. But, now we have the weekend ahead of us which could ruin any relief rally that is on tap. We shall see!

 

[Rod]

It may be premature, and I hope this is not a curse...but for those that got in today I think it is safe to say...WELL PLAYED!

Have a great weekend everyone!

Yep! I was one day too early... taking yesterday's hit! :cheesy:

 

[Rod]

I posted this on 23 Feb:

The bottom line...

Global markets have yet to discount the COVID-19-related economic shock that will likely rock it in the coming months.

Be careful out there.

My game plan for next week:

It is safe to say that the discounting has begun. But, I am afraid that the economic shock has yet to set in. That will likely begin to rear its head after Q1 earnings. If you are in (C), (S), or (I) as I am, I suggest an IFT back to "safety" in (G) or (F) just as soon as it is feasible for you and your risk tolerance. If we get a relief rally or two (or more) next week, the lows of this week will surely be tested in due time. Do you want to be in (C), (S), or (I) when that occurs? I sure don't. Of course, if your account is already deeply in the red, it might be best to ride this thing out so you can keep your number of shares intact and not sell at a loss.

Although my total "losses" in my TSP have been -5.10% since yesterday, my actual YTD return now stands at -3.91%. (BTW my TD Ameritrade Roth return for today is +3.84%. Happy with that!)

I am hoping to recoup those losses during any relief rallies that may come next week. Best case scenario is two back-to-back rallies on Monday & Tuesday. I realize that is a tall order. But, if it is in the cards, it will surely garner +5% over those two days. I will then likely seek shelter in (G) or (F), anticipating a test of the lows. More relief rallies may come afterwards before we actually test those lows. But, I will gladly sacrifice those in order to preserve capital.

March is almost here folks... and Q1 results (likely ugly) are just around the corner. Here's hoping the selling doesn't continue Monday and onward! Be careful out there!

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

Interesting...

Looking at the AutoTracker, a lot of the top folks have exited (F) and entered (C) and/or (S). I hope they're right!

 

[Rod]

I am by no means a T.A. guru. But, looking at all 3 charts... the Dow, S&P, and Naz, there seems to be "Three White Soldiers" on the last 3 bars of those charts. In the world of technical analysis that should confirm an uptrend. Of course, the size of the bars indicates the robustness/bullishness.

Perhaps someone who is more advanced in T.A. can take a look at it and give me your thoughts?

 

[Scout333]

My gut is telling we are a long ways from finished with the current downturn. I know because my sticky pants have now turned to stinky pants from wearing them too long in this coronacrisis1 LOL We'll know for sure when the economic effect hits instead of the psychological effect only. We could be looking at weeks and maybe months instead of days before this turns around. As always stay nimble out there my friends!

 

[Rod]

My gut is telling we are a long ways from finished with the current downturn. I know because my sticky pants have now turned to stinky pants from wearing them too long in this coronacrisis1 LOL We'll know for sure when the economic effect hits instead of the psychological effect only. We could be looking at weeks and maybe months instead of days before this turns around. As always stay nimble out there my friends!

Oh, I agree with you that we haven't hit the floor (see my previous post yesterday @ 5:10 pm.) I am simply referring to those inevitable "relief rallies." If those are indeed "Three White Soldiers" on those charts, then chances are high for that first relief rally to commence on Monday... barring there aren't any unexpected COVID-19 headlines over the weekend that could spoil it.

 

[Rod]

Oh great... there will be another Presidential COVID-19 press conference today @ 1330 EST. Just what the market needs right now... :AR15firing:

 

[Rod]

Here we go...

Unfortunately, the first COVID-19 death in the USA has been reported.

 

[Rod]

I want to be so wrong about this...

Because algorithms are programmed to react to such news, the market will likely sink on Monday due to the 1st reported COVID-19 death in the USA. We can only hope that the Fed makes some sort of announcement this weekend that will lessen Monday's blow.

 

[Rod]

I posted this 3 days ago...

Ahead of us is Q1 earnings, which will be widely beaten down. Ahead of us is likely a slowdown in the global economy. Ahead of us is likely a global supply chain interruption. Ahead of us are (at least) pockets of outbreaks within the USA, to likely include the first COVID-19 deaths in the USA. We cannot time this thing. That is out the window.

But, will we have "relief rallys" along the way? Sure will. And one might come today. Are we going lower from here? IMHO, most certainly.

- Keep an eye on the bond yields
- Keep an eye on the bond yields
- Keep an eye on the bond yields

Remain vigilant, and be careful out there.

God Bless :smile:

Why can't I heed my own warnings? Of course, I had already IFT'd to (C) and (S) the day before I had posted this. :wink::trink26:

 

[Rod]

Between the seemingly "Three White Soldiers" (technical analysis term indicating a reversal/uptrend) marching across the Dow, S&P, and NAZ @ Friday's close and the first reported COVID-19 death in the USA and Biden's SC win and any other announcements/news that might break between now and the last 5 minutes of trading on Monday...

I wonder how Monday will go? Remember, the only thing that matters now is the last 5 minutes of trading. Therefore, don't get too excited or discouraged until then. :wink:

 

[Mcqlives]

I don't know either...but here is another tidbit for everyone. I didn't see this till this morning but all the talk of pre 2 moves made me look at LIBOR (been years and years since I recall pulling it up). Then I found the following from Bloomberg:

The three-month London interbank offered rate for dollars -- a benchmark for trillions of dollars in financial products globally -- sank 11.8 basis points to 1.46275%. That’s the biggest one-day slide since December 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis. The move Friday reflects a market that’s pricing a more aggressive pace of monetary-policy easing from the U.S. central bank to cope with the economic impact of the coronavirus.

Futures traders are pricing in close to 94 basis points of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in 2020. That’s the equivalent of more than three standard quarter point cuts, and the first of these is almost fully priced in for as soon as March. A week ago, the market was pricing in just 48 basis points by year-end, but traders have amped up bets drastically this week as virus concerns have battered stocks around the world and sent investors rushing into haven assets.

 

[Rod]

At this time, futures are down over 3%:

https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

 

[nnuut]

BOOGA BOOGA!!!

 

[Rod]

BOOGA BOOGA!!!View attachment 45537View attachment 45538

At least it has recovered some since then. :trink26:

 

[Rod]

It's great to see that the futures are GREEN! Hope it lasts!

 

[Rod]

After the initial shock sets in, I can foresee Mr. Market becoming immune to news reports of the inevitable rise of COVID-19 infections and deaths. At this point, the only thing that will rattle it will be economically-related news, which could indeed become very ugly. In other words, it will be back to business as usual. My two cents, anyways.

 

[Rod]

2nd COVID-19 death reported in WA state. At the time, the futures were:

Dow: +135.5

S&P: +9.62

Naz: +30.50

We'll see where they go from here.