Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

VIX is now trading (intraday, at least) above its 50-EMA. Hasn't done that sine 13 July.

The "air" up here seems a bit deceptive, and is becoming troubling and turbulent. Perhaps it's time for a nice, healthy pullback or correction (5%-10%)? Will it commence tomorrow with The Fed's speech? We shall see how long it takes to commence! But, it is coming.

God Bless :smile:

 

[rangerray]

The VIX rising at the same time S & C Funds were rising spooked me a little. I have a case of FOGB (Fear of Going Backwards).

 

[flalaw97]

Tom's Market Commentary today had three charts of "relentless rallies" when there were three consecurive months of growth before a significant drop: Feb 2018, Oct 2018 and March 2020. I was looking at NAAIM data and VIX data for those three time frames and found this: NAAIM Jan 22, 2020 was 94, dropped to 77 and then 62 by 2/5/2020; NAAIM was 95 on 1/24/18 and dropped to 84 then 75 then 65 by 2/14/18; and NAAIM was 90 on 9/26/18 then droped to 84 then 52 on 1010/18. Are these "bells" at the top? VIX data is a little less pronounced but might have signaled those drops: 2/2/18 VIX jumped from 17 to 37 on 2/5/18; and VIX from 16 on 10/9/18 to 23 on 10/10/18; and 2/21/20 from 17 to 25 on 2/24/20.

 

[Rod]

Is this the beginning of it???

Posted on 26 Aug:

The "air" up here seems a bit deceptive, and is becoming troubling and turbulent. Perhaps it's time for a nice, healthy pullback or correction (5%-10%)? Will it commence tomorrow with The Fed's speech? We shall see how long it takes to commence! But, it is coming.

God Bless :smile:

 

[rangerray]

That's the question I'm now asking. If the dip is being fueled by tech stocks, is this yet another buying opportunity?

 

[Rod]

BTW, I closed both of these positions on split day (Monday), missing this sell-off 100%.

Profits...

TSLA: +19.86%

AAPL: +5.31%

My long-term trades so far this week:

AAPL: Bought @ 493.65/68

TSLA: Bought @ 2078.56 - 2079.28

Both of these are sure winners long-term. Therefore, I shall hold them for the foreseeable future.

Next long-term target is AMZN. I originally bought in on 15 May 2017 @ 958.03. I then sold on 4 Mar 2020 @ 1,936.05. Waiting on a nice pullback before I buy in.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

That's the question I'm now asking. If the dip is being fueled by tech stocks, is this yet another buying opportunity?

I'm going to wait for things to shake out. If I was in the TSP, I would not IFT today in case the sell-off continues into tomorrow. But, that's just me. :smile:
Remember, Mr. Market is closed on Monday. Therefore, selling may continue into tomorrow.

 

[nasa1974]

I'm going to wait for things to shake out. If I was in the TSP, I would not IFT today in case the sell-off continues into tomorrow. But, that's just me. :smile:
Remember, Mr. Market is closed on Monday. Therefore, selling may continue into tomorrow.

Looks like it could be a good day to get back on the horse!

 

[Rod]

Looks like it could be a good day to get back on the horse!

I am on/off... on/off... with my day trades.

 

[wahinepio]

Hi Rod, thx for popping in while you're living the dream. Thx much for the continued advice. Think I'll take it. God Bless America, and thank you for your service, as well as to all America's heroes on here.

 

[Boghie]

Is this the beginning of it???

Posted on 26 Aug:

I don't think I'm going to look at the dollar amount lost tonight - the percentages are ugly enough:cheesy:

 

[nasa1974]

I don't think I'm going to look at the dollar amount lost tonight - the percentages are ugly enough:cheesy:

Yep!! Getting slammed. Caught me off guard so fast I couldn't put on my depends under the sticky pants. Now I have to change my sticky pants. ;damnit

 

[Rod]

Remember your lesson from March...

Do Not Sell At A Loss!

 

[nasa1974]

Remember your lesson from March...

Do Not Sell At A Loss!

My lesson in March was don't ride it down to a minus 31% again. I still have two IFT's for the month and I might have to use them both.

 

[Rod]

My lesson in March was don't ride it down to a minus 31% again. I still have two IFT's for the month and I might have to use them both.

But, you would've (and should've) recovered and then some.

 

[nasa1974]

But, you would've (and should've) recovered and then some.

I did very well. Wednesday I was over 9%. So I recovered nicely. Today kicked me in the butt. Don't want to try that again. Took 5 months to get where I was Wednesday. Don't want to do that again.

 

[Rod]

I sensed it on the horizon.

Remember folks... do not panic sell.

Posted on 26 Aug:

The "air" up here seems a bit deceptive, and is becoming troubling and turbulent. Perhaps it's time for a nice, healthy pullback or correction (5%-10%)? Will it commence tomorrow with The Fed's speech? We shall see how long it takes to commence! But, it is coming.

God Bless :smile:

 

[Rod]

It might be the ideal time to play defensive/hedge due to the uncertainty of...

1. Just how deep the White House C-19 spread penetrates

2. President Trump's full recovery (although he seems to be doing fine)

3. The election

4. C-19 second wave affects upon market psychology and the economy

God Bless :smile:

 

[Boghie]

It might be the ideal time to play defensive/hedge due to the uncertainty of...

1. Just how deep the White House C-19 spread penetrates

2. President Trump's full recovery (although he seems to be doing fine)

3. The election

4. C-19 second wave affects upon market psychology and the economy

God Bless :smile:

I'm listening to you and the little birdy on my shoulder - went to a very conservative allocation.

Made mine this year anyway. Why be piggish in a notorious month, during a national election, sitting in the middle of a 4th Turning, and strife with conflict.

My birdy has been a better market analyzer than I this year. Time to listen to her - and you.

 

[Rod]

I'm listening to you and the little birdy on my shoulder - went to a very conservative allocation.

Made mine this year anyway. Why be piggish in a notorious month, during a national election, sitting in the middle of a 4th Turning, and strife with conflict.

My birdy has been a better market analyzer than I this year. Time to listen to her - and you.

Wise move, IMHO. I forgot to mention another reason- stimulus uncertainty, which has been the primary catalyst of the recent market action- whether that be a green day or a red day. Although the possibility exists, there is little reason to believe that the stars will align prior to (and shortly after) the election. I am now in the process of moving my long-term holdings to all cash in my TD accounts... just in case. Like yourself, I'm quite satisfied with my 2020 haul. At this point, the risks outweigh the reward. Again, IMHO. In the meantime, I will make my $$$ by day trading and making sure my accounts are flat by EOD. No after-market/pre-market surprises!
I

God Bless :smile: