ripper's account talk

[ripper]

Sold 50% SPY @ 205.70
Sold TNA @ 56.58

 

[ripper]

Sold SPY @ 206.80

Bought 100% TZA @ 42.29
Bought 100% SH @ 20.27

 

[ripper]

Weekly update:

Year-to-date performance does not include current open trades.

Aggressive Model:
YTD: +17.9%
Current position: 100% TZA @ 42.29

Conservative Model:
YTD: +11.0%
Current position: 100% SH @ 20.27

Got whipsawed a little bit this week when my signal flipped to bullish for a couple of days. But I'm ok with an occasional whipsaw, as I feel my signals will have me on the right side when the larger moves occur.
It looks like there's a very high probability of Friday's low being tested in the next 1-3 days. The next critical point for a continued downtrend is SPX 2040. If we breach that, there is a higher probability we'll reach 1970-1980. But I'm not too concerned with a drop much lower than that. It appears we'll see higher highs yet this year.
Many have said that this will be a year of major swings and so far it appears to be true. It should provide some excellent opportunities for profit, as long as we're on the right side.

Best wishes to all for a profitable week...

 

[ripper]

Sold at the open:

50% TZA @ 42.57
50% SH @ 20.44

 

[ripper]

At the close:

Sold TZA @ 41.62
Sold SH @ 20.26

Bought 100% TNA @ 58.02
Bought 100% SPY @ 206.78

 

[ripper]

Ugh. Bad day not to have access to the market until just before the close.
I would be 100% short tomorrow if it wasn't for the Fed minutes.

At the close:

Sold TNA @ 55.29
Sold SPY @ 204.85

Bought 50% TZA @ 43.58
Bought 50% SH @ 20.46

 

[ripper]

Weekly update:

Year-to-date performance does not include current open trades.

Aggressive Model:
YTD: +11.5%
Current position: 50% TZA @ 43.58

Conservative Model:
YTD: +10.5%
Current position: 50% SH @ 20.46

 

[ripper]

At the close:

Sold TZA @ 41.88
Bought 100% TNA @ 57.22

 

[ripper]

Sold 50% TNA @ 60.07

 

[ripper]

At the close:

Sold SH @ 20.01
Bought 100% SPY @ 209.28

 

[ripper]

Weekly update:

Year-to-date performance does not include current open trades.

Aggressive Model:
YTD: +12.2%
Current position: 50% TNA @ 57.22

Conservative Model:
YTD: +9.4%
Current position: 100% SPY @ 209.28

I changed to a different signal last week for the Conservative Model. It wasn't because of its performance - it was doing well - but it was much like the Aggressive Model, just without the leverage. This signal should change less frequently than the previous one.

 

[ripper]

Sold TNA @ 64.81

 

[ripper]

Bought 50% TZA @ 36.50

 

[ripper]

At the close:

Bought 50% TZA @ 36.18 for an average cost of 36.34

 

[ripper]

Weekly update:

Year-to-date performance does not include current open trades.

Aggressive Model:
YTD: +19.6%
Current position: 100% TZA @ 36.34

Conservative Model:
YTD: +9.4%
Current position: 100% SPY @ 209.28

 

[ripper]

Sold 100% TZA @ 34.99
Bought 100% TNA @ 67.94

 

[ripper]

Sold TNA @ 67.78
Bought 100% TZA @ 35.08

 

[airlift]

Sold TNA @ 67.78
Bought 100% TZA @ 35.08

Hi Ripper!

I note that you bought 100% TZA. That is a short 3x leveraged IWM (small caps). Today I bought a small number of SPXU (3x short leveraged SPX). Perhaps I bought it too high in price at 26.31 (pre market).

Based on your experience, what are your thoughts or opinion regarding a pullback, do you think we will see a pullback soon? please give me your best opinion. At lest it will give me some perspective of the possibilities, and I value the opinion of other members when it comes to shorting ETFs.

 

[ripper]

Hi Ripper!

I note that you bought 100% TZA. That is a short 3x leveraged IWM (small caps). Today I bought a small number of SPXU (3x short leveraged SPX). Perhaps I bought it too high in price at 26.31 (pre market).

Based on your experience, what are your thoughts or opinion regarding a pullback, do you think we will see a pullback soon? please give me your best opinion. At lest it will give me some perspective of the possibilities, and I value the opinion of other members when it comes to shorting ETFs.

I use TNA/TZA as the "default" ETF for my model, primarily because it provides the best returns in the long run. While the model usually represents my position (long or short) in the market, it doesn't necessarily reflect which ETF's I'm trading.
When I first take a new position, I usually purchase several ETF's, giving more weight to the one I feel is the strongest when I get a buy signal or the weakest for a short signal. For the most recent signal, I bought SPXU, TZA and SQQQ with more weight on SQQQ. For this trade so far, SQQQ is in the green while TZA and SPXU are in the red.
SPXU is a safer trade since it's less volatile than most of the other ETF's.
I have little idea where we are heading as my signals are daily. My personal feeling is that we are near a top, but that doesn't mean we can't go higher. My longer term signal, which is mainly a weekly signal, is long. I'd rather be trading with that signal than against it. A portion of my IRA is holding UPRO.

Best of luck to you and your trades!

 

[ripper]

Weekly update:

Year-to-date performance does not include current open trades.

Aggressive Model:
YTD: +15.0
Current position: 100% TZA @ 35.08

Conservative Model:
YTD: +9.8%
Current position: 100% SH @ 19.92

My conservative model moved to a sell on Friday. It actually gave a sell about an hour after the open, but I was traveling and unable to post on here. I will use Friday's closing prices on here for tracking, although I received better selling and buying prices on my own trades earlier in the day.