Respect

This is the Dow Jones Transportation Index. It wasn't all that long ago I would almost never look at it because I thought I didn't need to. But the more I learn the more I've come to respect this chart because I know it's important, it's proved it to me time and time again.

Today we put in a beautiful Doji Cross. This is where prices push in both directions but close flat. Sometimes a Doji cross can mark the beginning or end of a wave. But you can't just take a Doji Cross at face value, there are other factors you have to consider.
tran.PNG



Factors like volume which is a crucial indicator I've learned to respect. Let's take a closer look at that Doji on the 15 minute chart and add volume to paint a better picture of today's action. You'll notice on the last 15 minute candle stick we fought back from the lows and closed with a large spike in volume. Of the last 7 spikes in volume, 6 marked a swing low in price, now that's pretty cool huh? What volume is telling me is that this Doji is in fact more likely to be a swing low rather than a swing high in price. It doesn't mean it's going to play out this way, but it is a repeating pattern.
tranh.PNG



As for the Dollar, if you're thinking about getting into the I-fund you may want to hold off, but if you like pain, go ahead be my guest. The Dollar is disrespecting my I-Fund entry and shows no signs of pulling back.

8 closes above the 50 SMA
3 closes above the 75 SMA
1 close above the 100 SMA
A higher close above 2 previous swing highs.
A breakout above the descending price channel.
A clear and decisive breakout on the ADX Trend Strength Indicator.
2 days above 80 on the Super Duper slow (39, 1) Stochastic.
usd.PNG



If you're scared of stocks there ain't no place to run but the G-Fund. AGG has broken the June ascending trendline. Based on previous levels and waves, I expect a bounce off the low 104s, but I wouldn't try to time a bottom here as it could get uglier...
aggd.PNG



I'm somewhat mixed on the S&P 500's houly chart. Although this last mini wave had higher closing prices, prices didn't "push" higher like they did on the previous mini wave.
spxh.PNG


S-Fund is still the best bet, the mid caps have been rather impressive as of late...Jason



 
Back
Top