Relentless

The big money has certainly made their point. In thin trading they can do pretty much what they want to do, when they want to do it. September is off to a robust start and I won't deny the charts are looking bullish.

But the charts were looking quite bearish just 4 trading days ago and we were in a bear market. Now we're probably back in a bull market and the bearish charts were blasted apart.

It's not unusual to a see a huge rally in a bear market though, so there's still room for caution.

It wasn't all good news this morning in the payrolls data. Granted, it wasn't bad per se, but the jobs picture hasn't changed much either. But hey, we're on a roll so who cares about the news.

Here's the charts:



We've covered a lot of ground here in a very short period of time. And NYMO is now sitting not far from its 28 day trading high.



Still on buys here.



TRIN and TRINQ are staying planted in very overbought territory. That can't last forever.



BPCOMPQ moved higher and may be signaling more upside to this move.

So all Seven Sentinels are flashing buys and NYMO is within 18 points of its 28 day trading high.

What I continue to dislike is the explosiveness of not just the upside moves when they occur, but the downside moves as well. And remember, the downside usually moves faster than the upside, so after seeing this 3-day wonder rally I can't help but wonder (now that the powers that be have flipped most mechanical systems back to a buy) how much faster they'll take it down (not a question of if, but when).

But I'm not calling for a decline here. At least not yet given the recent strength.

I'm finding it amusing that some of the bulls (not so much on this MB) are saying everyone is shorting this rally, but I'm seeing no shortage of traders taking long positions here, so I suspect we see what we want to see. In any event, volume should increase next week as summer vacations expire. Should be interesting.

 

[Birchtree]

So many people moved to the F fund today that I'm thinking one of the premium services must be touting bonds. Way to go. I'll be waiting for you to capitulate back to the bullish side and then your followers will be buyers helping the bull along the trajectory upward.

 

[crws]

So many people moved to the F fund today that I'm thinking one of the premium services must be touting bonds. Way to go. I'll be waiting for you to capitulate back to the bullish side and then your followers will be buyers helping the bull along the trajectory upward.

Are you on point?

 

[Boghie]

CH,

The S&P only bumped a little over 3% last week.
We were down a little over 15% from the recent highs.

September is generally a lousy month to invest, but this past summer was worse than normal. Usually we just set the spin cycle and go away. This year, however, we lost 6.25% - which includes this past weeks gain. So, da'Boyz may use that space to make some short term gains. They probably already have.

 

[coolhand]

CH,

The S&P only bumped a little over 3% last week.
We were down a little over 15% from the recent highs.

September is generally a lousy month to invest, but this past summer was worse than normal. Usually we just set the spin cycle and go away. This year, however, we lost 6.25% - which includes this past weeks gain. So, da'Boyz may use that space to make some short term gains. They probably already have.

One can never be sure when a turn is upon us, or of its measure. Last year we had some whipsaws that flipped the SS on and off like switch. That doesn't happen often, but happens. And it ain't pleasant when you expect one thing and get another.

I was reading an article the other day about how so many investors have left the market specifically because of the volatility.

Yep. That's probably a smart move. Especially when one looks at the longer term picture.

 

[Bullitt]

Still in a downtrend since April. Higher highs in the short term and everybody is a short term trader these days. I remember last year the day after labor day had a comeback in volume so maybe this up down volatility will be tamed some soon.

Sentiment works at extremes and trying to guess short term directions based on sentiment is a coin toss. We are not at an extreme right now either way. I think the whole 'everyone is short' thing is written by those who have an agenda. There will always be some indicator somewhere that one can use to grasp their agenda.