Stocks bounced back yesterday posting the first significant positive day of the new year. The Dow gained 213-points and the broader indices picked up about 1.2%.
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The I-fund lagged with the dollar up again, plus a little payback for Tuesday's price. The F-fund posted a small gain.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) did a lot of interesting things yesterday. First and most obvious, we saw a big rally. But it ran up to the old support line, the 50-day EMA, and the top of the recent gap early, but couldn't quite get back through them. It's not unusual to see the market stall one day and blast through it the next, but until that new resistance is taken out we have to wonder if the pullback is over. I see the futures are up gain in overnight trading so perhaps the pullback is over, but let's see how the day's trading goes before declaring a winner. The outcome tends to be either an immediate decline, or as we saw in December, a sharp gap higher. The strong futures may be suggesting the latter, although our TSP Talk Plus subscribers have just seen the Hindenburg Omen data that could be pointing toward the former.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Although a gap up would make this moot, one of the reasons for my skepticism is that breakdowns below the 50-day EMA over the last 6 months chopped around below the 50-day EMA for a few more days before the real bottom was made. We could see the bears try to make another attempt to push it down and the bulls will have to step up again. If they are successful, we'd probably be looking at new highs rather quickly. But that 50-day EMA is the key.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) bounced off of the rising support line for a second straight day and it is now flirting with the 50-day EMA. Again, good start but it's kind of in limbo still until one of those gives way.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) rebounded but it had been so oversold that it had been overdue. That open gap could be the short-term upside target if the bears don't sink their teeth into this vulnerable chart again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It looks like oil is still running the show. It was up yesterday and stocks followed. The downside has been relentless so we'll have to see if it has the ability to put together a few up days, which would likely help stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) did fill the gap created on Tuesday but managed an intraday rebound once it did fill it. The cup and handle gave the bullish breakout, but now the double top may act as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The December jobs report comes out on Friday morning and estimates are looking for a gain of about 245,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.7%. The jobs report contest is active in the forum.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The I-fund lagged with the dollar up again, plus a little payback for Tuesday's price. The F-fund posted a small gain.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Although a gap up would make this moot, one of the reasons for my skepticism is that breakdowns below the 50-day EMA over the last 6 months chopped around below the 50-day EMA for a few more days before the real bottom was made. We could see the bears try to make another attempt to push it down and the bulls will have to step up again. If they are successful, we'd probably be looking at new highs rather quickly. But that 50-day EMA is the key.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) bounced off of the rising support line for a second straight day and it is now flirting with the 50-day EMA. Again, good start but it's kind of in limbo still until one of those gives way.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) rebounded but it had been so oversold that it had been overdue. That open gap could be the short-term upside target if the bears don't sink their teeth into this vulnerable chart again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
It looks like oil is still running the show. It was up yesterday and stocks followed. The downside has been relentless so we'll have to see if it has the ability to put together a few up days, which would likely help stocks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) did fill the gap created on Tuesday but managed an intraday rebound once it did fill it. The cup and handle gave the bullish breakout, but now the double top may act as resistance.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The December jobs report comes out on Friday morning and estimates are looking for a gain of about 245,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.7%. The jobs report contest is active in the forum.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
