RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
RMI, you are a chatty cathy today. 31 posts and climbing. :nuts:
 
RMI's OCD Chart:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1100"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD]J
Ken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD]Signal
????
lol[/TD]
[TD]In a
Perfect
World[/TD]
[TD].
My TSP
Returns[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Term[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Ask[/TD]
[TD]Ask[/TD]
[TD]Ask[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]SPX[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]Short-506[/TD]
[TD]Long-600[/TD]
[TD]Long-236[/TD]
[TD]Short-530[/TD]
[TD]Long-429[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.68%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Short-554[/TD]
[TD]Long-584[/TD]
[TD]Long-270[/TD]
[TD]Short-593[/TD]
[TD]Long-423[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%
[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]54%[/TD]
[TD]Short-640[/TD]
[TD]Long-408[/TD]
[TD]Long-191[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Long-343[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-664[/TD]
[TD]Long-348[/TD]
[TD]Long-167[/TD]
[TD]Short-684[/TD]
[TD]Long-312[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell
[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Short-834[/TD]
[TD]Long-348[/TD]
[TD]Long-174[/TD]
[TD]Short-863[/TD]
[TD]Long-311[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]78%[/TD]
[TD]64%[/TD]
[TD]67%[/TD]
[TD]Short-853[/TD]
[TD]Long-364[/TD]
[TD]Long-198[/TD]
[TD]Short-873[/TD]
[TD]Long-309[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]78%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Short-852[/TD]
[TD]Long-320[/TD]
[TD]Long-162[/TD]
[TD]Short-873[/TD]
[TD]Long-331[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]41%[/TD]
[TD]Short-698[/TD]
[TD]Long-263[/TD]
[TD]Long-146[/TD]
[TD]Short-869[/TD]
[TD]Long-300[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell
[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Long-292[/TD]
[TD]Long-164[/TD]
[TD]Short-696[/TD]
[TD]Long-347[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]Short-657[/TD]
[TD]Long-249[/TD]
[TD]Long-128[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Long-382[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.74%[/TD]
[TD]2.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-616[/TD]
[TD]Long-276[/TD]
[TD]Long-136[/TD]
[TD]Short-656[/TD]
[TD]Long-378[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]0.74%[/TD]
[TD]2.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-Feb
[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-655[/TD]
[TD]Long-283[/TD]
[TD]Long-143[/TD]
[TD]Short-634[/TD]
[TD]Long-394[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


It's a new month, and a new quiver of IFTs
confetti.gif


Now, what to do with them is the magical question...

The medium term (weeks to months) is still bullish (yes Birchtree, I said it), but the very short term (days to a week) is undecidedly bearish... I really do expect a pull back to 1285 on the S&P, but the market is fighting the low volume and bullish exuberance.

Some might say good, we don't need a pull back. And to some degree I might agree because making money in equities is exciting. If we don't get a pullback to allow the market to "digest" it's recent 10% push up, then it is very possible we have a violent drop to much lower than 1285... and with little to no notice, that will catch many of us unaware and vulnerable.

I know many have seen me post "good news, market goes up; bad news, market goes up; no news, market goes up" and that is partly because of the hype (like CNBC) out there and the low volume being traded in the markets.

At this point, all I can say is be careful when deciding when to get into or out of the market.
- If the market is up 10%, that is NOT the time to get in... wait for a respectable pull-back (there will be one) and then move in to take advantage of the next leg up.
- Being on the sidelines IS a move. You don't have to be in the market all the time. Sometimes it's just best to wait it out...
- Trends up and Trends down is when people make money, NOT when the market is just chopping up and down (small moves, but basically sideways)...
- Have a target. If you decide you want to make 2% a month then when you get there, move 50% back to G and let the rest go until you see a pull back, then move the rest to G (or F if you want). You may not get the whole 8% up move, but you might be protected against a violent pull back. Just a thought.

Quick Look:
SPX Chart

If you notice, the markets have been going up since the bottom on 10/4 at 1075... Now THAT was a bottom...
In a perfect world, you could have taken advantage of the drop on 10/28 (24 days up) and on 12/7 to wait (in G or F) and buy back in at lower prices to maximize your gain. It's easy to see all of that looking back with 20/20 vision.

Now, as before, market oscillators are trending down which shows the market might keep going down. The 20 SMA is support, albeit weak support. If the S&P makes it through the 20 SMA, then there is support at the 50/200 SMA which by the time we get there will be at about 1270. Interestingly, SPN46er pointed out a potential H&S pattern on the 60 min SPX with a similar target if it executes.

After we have a quick pullback, we again start heading up to at least double top somewhere between 1345 and 1355. That would get us to about the end of the quarter, then, who knows :D

With all of this said, the markets will do what the markets will do. We have no control over the news or the hype and all we can do is react based on the information we have at the moment..

Good luck to all!!

And that, is my
twocents.gif



Check out bquat's thread, he does some really good short-term, daily charting and while you're there, drop some reps if you like his stuff (click on the
reputation-40b.png
and leave a comment)!!

Also, newbie SPN46er has been posting some good charts and analysis that makes sense. He is a good addition around here !! Reps are due if you like his stuff (click on the
reputation-40b.png
and leave a comment)!!
 
I want to thank you for taking the time to lay out some basics in how to approach TSP investing. I'm a new member and have been feeling overwhelmed with the amount of information on this site. I honestly don't even know where to begin with my questions!

I'll keep reading and trust that things will sink in over time!

Thanks again.
 
WhoDey said:
I want to thank you for taking the time to lay out some basics in how to approach TSP investing. I'm a new member and have been feeling overwhelmed with the amount of information on this site. I honestly don't even know where to begin with my questions!

I'll keep reading and trust that things will sink in over time!

Thanks again.
Click to expand...


It is a lot to absorb, especially when you find out you have almost no clue. That is the way I was when I joined these crazies. For the first few months I played follow the leader which proved difficult because the top Trackers all did something different. But once you start getting comfortable you learn to trust yourself. The biggest thing to remember is how much risk do you want to take and can you live with that decision right or wrong. Set youself a bottom line, if the market drops or gets to this point I am out. Stick to it even if you are out and you missed out on a few extra dollars, because it could save you a big loss also. Use your 2 IFT's as an advantage not a disadvantage. OK, that's enough rambling. I do not want to put your brain in REM mode. Good Luck.
 
nasa1974 said:
For the first few months I played follow the leader which proved difficult because the top Trackers all did something different. But once you start getting comfortable you learn to trust yourself. The biggest thing to remember is how much risk do you want to take and can you live with that decision right or wrong.
Click to expand...
Interesting because that is just what I did. I saw that all the leaders were in S, so I followed suit. As I learned more, however, I got nervous (because I was merely following and didn't understand the reasoning) and pulled some of my funds to safety. Now, I'm straddling the fence and feeling uncertain. I feel good about my position though as it gives me time to learn while minimizing my exposure.

I hope to eventually find some sweet spot where I don't feel like I have to check the market every hour! I'd like to gain a sense of how the individual funds move relative to larger forces (the European debt situation is a concern right now) and develop a strategy for moving forward. In the past, I was ignorant of the day to day swings in the markets and, while interesting to watch, they are driving me crazy!
 
WhoDey said:
Interesting because that is just what I did. I saw that all the leaders were in S, so I followed suit. As I learned more, however, I got nervous (because I was merely following and didn't understand the reasoning) and pulled some of my funds to safety. Now, I'm straddling the fence and feeling uncertain. I feel good about my position though as it gives me time to learn while minimizing my exposure.

I hope to eventually find some sweet spot where I don't feel like I have to check the market every hour! I'd like to gain a sense of how the individual funds move relative to larger forces (the European debt situation is a concern right now) and develop a strategy for moving forward. In the past, I was ignorant of the day to day swings in the markets and, while interesting to watch, they are driving me crazy!
Click to expand...

Welcome to the message board WhoDey! I recently asked a question about following who ever the current leader is on the leader board and my response was this:

"Don't keep trying to follow who ever is at the top of the leader at any given time. All traders will have their ups and downs and if you keep trying to follow the leader, odds are he just had his up and is probably due to have his down. If you keep doing this, you'll keep hitting the down periods and not the up ones. Think about it, if you followed last year's leader this year, how did he do? How did they do in the year prior to being the leader? Was it up down up down? Do you expect anything different from this year's leader? They might have another great year, but they might not either."

Don't know if this will help you or not, but it is just my opinion. Good luck this year!
 
That does help ... and it is why I got nervous after my initial reallocation. Given that we were only in the first month of the year and that all of the leaders had the same allocation, it eventually crossed my mind that maybe all of them had just gotten lucky (sorry ... not meant to offend anyone!). Having only a couple of weeks of returns certainly skews the results a tad. Also, when I looked at last year's returns, I saw that some of the leaders hadn't done so well last year.

Like many/most ... I'm looking to maximize returns while minimizing risks. I don't plan on chasing the highest returns .. but rather finding a balance that I can live with. Sounds simple enough ... :worried:

(Edited to add ... Sorry RMI for highjacking your thread. One of these days I may begin my own ... but if I did that right now there would be a lot of blank space!)
 
RMI, thought for the day:
If I'm reading it right, I've noticed all the constituents of your chart are turning more and more bullish. At first blush one might say...Whoa, the stars are lining up and it's going to be a good time to be in the market! Then I got to thinking about the whole Smart Money/Dumb Money issue, and the fact that we are the Dumb Money. Maybe the increasing bullish alignments in your chart can be taken as a sign that the masses of Dumb Money folks are finally capitulating and joining the stampede...as such the contrarian play may be about to pop.

I imagine you've given this consideration as well but just wanted to throw it out there.

Now that we've, again, cranked over S&P 1325 I'm putting my TNA position in trailing stop mode.
 
ebbnflow said:
RMI, the ebbchart would have fit in nicely on your chart. I have been using the ebbchart's signals to follow the exchange-traded fund, TNA (since May 2011). Had a gain of +154% from May thru December of last year. Got off to a great start again this year with a string of 10 correct buy and short signals for TNA. So far, the ETF system is up over +12% this month. Just a heads-up to traders looking for an edge. By the way, the new mechanical calling system started in May and it really takes the emotions out of trading.
Click to expand...

Hey ebb, we would like to see your signals on RMI's spreadsheet to see how they compare with the rest of us.
 
WhoDey said:
That does help ... and it is why I got nervous after my initial reallocation. Given that we were only in the first month of the year and that all of the leaders had the same allocation, it eventually crossed my mind that maybe all of them had just gotten lucky (sorry ... not meant to offend anyone!). Having only a couple of weeks of returns certainly skews the results a tad. Also, when I looked at last year's returns, I saw that some of the leaders hadn't done so well last year.
Click to expand...

Thorugh the first three months of the year in 2011 I had sat in the top ten on the Tracker, won a monthly prize from Tom and felt very optimistic about my yearly return! I finished the year down 7 points and felt fortunate for that (about 20 down at one time). My problem was many fold and complicated but the basics were I quit paying attention and became a B&Her. I'm paying attention again, did well for January (I was not as confident as some) and am going to try and stay focused for the entire 12 month period. GL to you.
 
Thanks Britts ... that's exactly the type of fundamental lesson that I need to keep in mind. My mind is swirling with all the information contained on this site and with more acronyms than I can shake a stick at. Your advice and that shared by others in this thread are things I will need to periodically remind myself of.
 
RMI's OCD Chart:


[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1100"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD]J
Ken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD]Signal
????
lol[/TD]
[TD]In a
Perfect
World[/TD]
[TD].
My TSP
Returns[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Term[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Medium[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[TD]n/a[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]SPX[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]Short-506[/TD]
[TD]Long-600[/TD]
[TD]Long-236[/TD]
[TD]Short-530[/TD]
[TD]Long-429[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.68%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]18-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Short-554[/TD]
[TD]Long-584[/TD]
[TD]Long-270[/TD]
[TD]Short-593[/TD]
[TD]Long-423[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.49%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]19-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]54%[/TD]
[TD]Short-640[/TD]
[TD]Long-408[/TD]
[TD]Long-191[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Long-343[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]20-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-664[/TD]
[TD]Long-348[/TD]
[TD]Long-167[/TD]
[TD]Short-684[/TD]
[TD]Long-312[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.69%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Short-834[/TD]
[TD]Long-348[/TD]
[TD]Long-174[/TD]
[TD]Short-863[/TD]
[TD]Long-311[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]24-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]78%[/TD]
[TD]64%[/TD]
[TD]67%[/TD]
[TD]Short-853[/TD]
[TD]Long-364[/TD]
[TD]Long-198[/TD]
[TD]Short-873[/TD]
[TD]Long-309[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.71%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]78%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Short-852[/TD]
[TD]Long-320[/TD]
[TD]Long-162[/TD]
[TD]Short-873[/TD]
[TD]Long-331[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]26-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]41%[/TD]
[TD]Short-698[/TD]
[TD]Long-263[/TD]
[TD]Long-146[/TD]
[TD]Short-869[/TD]
[TD]Long-300[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]63%[/TD]
[TD]Short-667[/TD]
[TD]Long-292[/TD]
[TD]Long-164[/TD]
[TD]Short-696[/TD]
[TD]Long-347[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Sell[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.72%[/TD]
[TD]1.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]Short-657[/TD]
[TD]Long-249[/TD]
[TD]Long-128[/TD]
[TD]Short-682[/TD]
[TD]Long-382[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]0.74%[/TD]
[TD]2.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]61%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-616[/TD]
[TD]Long-276[/TD]
[TD]Long-136[/TD]
[TD]Short-656[/TD]
[TD]Long-378[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]0.74%[/TD]
[TD]2.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1-Feb[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]30%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-655[/TD]
[TD]Long-283[/TD]
[TD]Long-143[/TD]
[TD]Short-634[/TD]
[TD]Long-394[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.74%[/TD]
[TD]2.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2-Feb
[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]57%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663[/TD]
[TD]Long-208[/TD]
[TD]Long-106[/TD]
[TD]Short-687[/TD]
[TD]Long-359[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

This will be short as I haven't been feeling good for a couple days
sick3.gif


Today was a busy day in the market and on the forum. I am glad that TSP Talk is helping so many folks take control of their future.

Tomorrow will be interesting.
Hype about the Facebook IPO later this year, hype about a big up day, volume low, futures up, resistance still at 1333.50, market oscillators heading back up, not enough of the retail investors in the market, institutions on the sidelines, and the markets grind up.
Weekly Jobless report, Productivity and Costs report, and a Big Ben pep talk to Congress :sick:

SSDD

So, I will sit here and watch the markets grind up with no good entry to be had and wait for the other shoe to drop. Still plenty of months to go this year to make money.

Just my
twocents.gif



Mapper said:
RMI, thought for the day:
If I'm reading it right, I've noticed all the constituents of your chart are turning more and more bullish. At first blush one might say...Whoa, the stars are lining up and it's going to be a good time to be in the market! Then I got to thinking about the whole Smart Money/Dumb Money issue, and the fact that we are the Dumb Money. Maybe the increasing bullish alignments in your chart can be taken as a sign that the masses of Dumb Money folks are finally capitulating and joining the stampede...as such the contrarian play may be about to pop.

I imagine you've given this consideration as well but just wanted to throw it out there.
Click to expand...

Well, considering the systems I follow take that into account, I don't consider them to be contrarian systems. I guess only time will tell.

Mapper said:
Now that we've, again, cranked over S&P 1325 I'm putting my TNA position in trailing stop mode.
Click to expand...

TNA, along with any 3x leveraged ETF should have a stop, trailing or otherwise, on it so you don't end up eating a huge drop or waiting it out... been there, done that, doing it again...
If we break 1333.50, we will be grinding north for awhile I suppose unless something major happens. And no, I have no idea what that is... We already know Greece will default so that isn't it.

MrJohnRoss said:
Hey ebb, we would like to see your signals on RMI's spreadsheet to see how they compare with the rest of us.
Click to expand...

ebb is a premium service provider. He won't be giving me his signals for my chart any time soon... I guess ;)
 
RealMoneyIssues said:
TNA, along with any 3x leveraged ETF should have a stop, trailing or otherwise, on it so you don't end up eating a huge drop or waiting it out... been there, done that, doing it again...
Click to expand...
Agreed, but I should be more specific.

At this stage in the game I don't generally use, nor do I intend to regularly use mechanical stops, %, $ or otherwise...unless I'm going on a vacation. The market, and my associated risk tolerance, is too fluid and there are too many moving parts.

When I first enter a position, especially something inherently risky like a 3x leveraged ETF, I allow for a certain amount of loss. I don't expect to pick exact tops and bottoms but I hope to guess the general coming market direction. To protect my decisions I always have additional capital available so I can reduce the cost basis of my position if the trade moderately "goes wrong". BUT, if I deem myself just plain on the wrong side of the trade I'm more than willing to exit the trade for a loss. So, I have personal stop losses but they are dependent on many factors each and every day. I can do this because I'm really unemotional about my money...probably because I'm at least 30 years to retirement. To me at this point, it's all just a game. ESPECIALLY my ETF trades...I find it easier to sleep that way. As stated in other places, I'm primarily a buy and hold investor. I do, however, move my TSP (I see those moves as minimally risky) and toy with ETFs with a small % of my portfolio.

So, in the case stated above, I dramatically tightened my personal daily stop loss because I feel we could easily be at a market turning point and I wanted to book some nice gains.

Edit:
I really think we've got a down day(s) in the mail. We've been struggling at this level for a while and the MA's are catching up. Yesterday was a big push and could easily be the start of more grinding up the wall of worry, but I'm thinking we see a little down time before that continues in earnest.
 
RMI, thanks as always for keeping your OCD chart up to date every day. Your page has become the "go to" place for a lot of people because of your service. Thank you!

I do have one question tho... how do you copy/paste your spreadsheet from Excel into the forum? I've tried doing it in the past, and the format gets all screwed up. You must know of some magic secret, or have excellent technical skills. Heck, maybe both! Please share!

BTW, hope you get to feeling better soon!

JR
 
MrJohnRoss said:
how do you copy/paste your spreadsheet from Excel into the forum?
Click to expand...

I just go to advanced mode, put it in WYSIWYG mode and then copy/paste it from Excel. Once I do that, I bring up the properties and add the grid and set the width... viola

Thanks, I am actually feeling better this morning AND I may not have to go in tonite!!!
 
Dude! You're the BOMB!

Oops, I shouldn't have said that... Homeland Security might have their web crawlers lurking around looking for terrorist key words...

Hope you'll come visit me in prison. :worried:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

J
returning
Replies
1
Views
268
tsptalk
tsptalk
quabit
Retiring/TSP process questions
Replies
7
Views
513
JD1964
J
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
720
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
367
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
JTH
  • Article Article
Blog: Wk-18 Oversold or under appreciated?
Replies
0
Views
169
JTH
JTH
Back
Top