RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: hi

I've been looking at this for the last few days but haven't seen any explanation of the numbers, i.e. Top 5, Top 10, Seasonality? Or the numbers you include in some of the cells. Did I miss it somewhere? I assume "safe" is equivalent to G/F funds?

Top 5/10 in stocks on TSP Ocean's list, follow the link. Seasonality is posted on the TSP Commentary, follow the link. The numbers are in %, but I don't always put the symbol... still playing with it.

Long = Equities (pick your poison, C, S, or I) - Bull ETF
Short = Bonds(F Fund) - Bear ETF
Safe = Cash(G fund) - Well, Cash

I imagine you are creating an aggregate value of some kind (given you have "weights" applied) that you can use to create Long/Short signals for your own use. You are well on the way to a quantifiable and testable type system...so long as all of your components keep regularly reporting their own signals. The real down side I see is knowing when the other systems make changes.

I haven't actually started using the weights yet, but those are the ones I am considering... I will make a calculation soon, just haven't taken the time to do it yet. The hardest signals are the user ones because not all of them post their signals in an easy place so I have to read their thread religiously. Some put it in their signature, making it real easy to find

Also I see that you have one column with a weight of "50". That's an awfully heavy weighting compared to the other components. Even if all other components are in agreement, opposite to that one component, you will only have a perfectly divided 50/50 "score".

True, mainly because I trust that one more... The weighting is in it's infancy, don't read into it too much

 

[Happy_Trails]

Re: hi

FYI buydonthold.com is on a sell. Go figure.

Went to the Buy Don't Hold blog and it says the Buy Don't Hold system is still on a buy. I just checked the indicators for the system and they are still on a strong buy as well. The only indicator not on a buy is sentiment. Where did you see that the system flipped to a sell?

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: hi

Went to the Buy Don't Hold blog and it says the Buy Don't Hold system is still on a buy. I just checked the indicators for the system and they are still on a strong buy as well. The only indicator not on a buy is sentiment. Where did you see that the system flipped to a sell?

When I looked this morning it had a "0" which is a sell. I just went to it and it is a "3" which is a strong buy. The date is January 6. So I don't know what's up?

 

[Happy_Trails]

Re: hi

When I looked this morning it had a "0" which is a sell. I just went to it and it is a "3" which is a strong buy. The date is January 6. So I don't know what's up?

It's still a strong buy +3. I double-checked all of the indicators and they are still looking good. Sentiment is still neutral - the sentiment indicator would flip to a sell if the AAII Sentiment Survey rises above 50% one week and then, drops back below 50%. The way things are going sentiment wise, I could see a reading above 50% coming tomorrow. Still, it would only be one out of the four indicators on a sell unless the bottom falls out of this market.

 

[MaStA]

Re: hi

I'm just glad I went into the S fund yesterday and not the I fund. I was definitely considering it since it seemed to be blooming, but ready what others were saying it sounded like the I fund was going to be dropping and US stocks were going to be blooming. Hopefully this trend continues

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Re: hi

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1096"]
[TR]
[TD]

.
Trading
Date​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
Seven
Sentinels​

[/TD]
[TD]

TSP
Talk
SS​

[/TD]
[TD]

Top 5
In
Stocks​

[/TD]
[TD]

Top
10 In
Stocks​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
Season
-ality​

[/TD]
[TD]

Long-
Short
Timing​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
.
Uptrend​

[/TD]
[TD]

Mr
John
Ross​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
Jken
Johnson​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
10 Mon
M-SMA ​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
LMBF
Method​

[/TD]
[TD]

Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
Just
RMI​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
My TSP
Returns​

[/TD]
[TD]

.
My IRA
Returns​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

Weight?​

[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]2.5
[/TD]
[TD]2.5
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]50
[/TD]
[TD]???
[/TD]
[TD]???
[/TD]
[TD]???
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

30-Dec​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]40
[/TD]
[TD]50
[/TD]
[TD]56
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Buy G
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Long
[/TD]
[TD]Short
[/TD]
[TD]Long
[/TD]
[TD]Short
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-271
[/TD]
[TD]5.80%
[/TD]
[TD]2.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]49
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Buy G
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Long
[/TD]
[TD]Short
[/TD]
[TD]Long
[/TD]
[TD]Long
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-293
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]74
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Buy G
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-635
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-585
[/TD]
[TD]Short-776
[/TD]
[TD]Long-471
[/TD]
[TD]Short
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-672
[/TD]
[TD]0.01%
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]80
[/TD]
[TD]54
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Buy G
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-627
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-579
[/TD]
[TD]Short-788
[/TD]
[TD]Long-461
[/TD]
[TD]Hold
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663
[/TD]
[TD]0.02%
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]60
[/TD]
[TD]46
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Buy G
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-643
[/TD]
[TD]Long-596
[/TD]
[TD]Short-808
[/TD]
[TD]Long-431
[/TD]
[TD]Hold
[/TD]
[TD]Short-679
[/TD]
[TD]0.18%
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]20
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]44
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Buy G
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-635
[/TD]
[TD]Long-758
[/TD]
[TD]Short-784
[/TD]
[TD]Long-480
[/TD]
[TD]Hold
[/TD]
[TD]Short-465
[/TD]
[TD]0.24%
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]81
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]48
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Short-730
[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663
[/TD]
[TD]Long-428
[/TD]
[TD]Short-802
[/TD]
[TD]Long-450
[/TD]
[TD]Hold
[/TD]
[TD]Short-482
[/TD]
[TD]0.25%
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]50%
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Short-586
[/TD]
[TD]Long-712
[/TD]
[TD]Long-288
[/TD]
[TD]Short-835
[/TD]
[TD]Long-411
[/TD]
[TD]Short
[/TD]
[TD]Long-536
[/TD]
[TD]0.67%
[/TD]
[TD]0.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]56%
[/TD]
[TD]Safe
[/TD]
[TD]Short-605
[/TD]
[TD]Long-547
[/TD]
[TD]Long-229
[/TD]
[TD]Short-624
[/TD]
[TD]Long-411
[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short
[/TD]
[TD]Long-489
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

13-Jan​

[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Buy
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]59%
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Short
[/TD]
[TD]Long
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[eccougar]

Re: hi

Very nice RMI.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Re: hi

Very nice RMI.

I agree. I hope you keep this going.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I agree. I hope you keep this going.

I've been doing it since June, so I know I will... posting... I suppose I could

 

[Mapper]

RMI,

I'm confused by your comments in my thread and what I thought​ was your position.

I thought, based on your chart above, you went in yesterday and stayed long today? "Just RMI" shows a long for both days, does that show your position using all your indicators?

OR is "Just RMI" simply another component. If so, are you going to add a column that shows your actual position based on the aggregation of your weighted model components?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

RMI,

I'm confused by your comments in my thread and what I thought​ was your position.

I thought, based on your chart above, you went in yesterday and stayed long today? "Just RMI" shows a long for both days, does that show your position using all your indicators?

OR is "Just RMI" simply another component. If so, are you going to add a column that shows your actual position based on the aggregation of your weighted model components?

I have been long in my TSP for a couple days, taking a small advantage of the float up due to the low volume... missed a good entry by a day, but you can't win them all.

As far as my comments in your thread; I believe what I said is really what is going on. Had I not gone long in my TSP a couple days ago, I wouldn't be going long today. I am mostly short in my IRA; hedged with some long small/mid cap swing trades.

I see a market top coming soon if not tomorrow. I guess JPM earnings tomorrow before the opening may/may not be the catalyst, or the big guys may just be waiting for more people to be buying up the market. Someone is buying the dips, but they are not doing it with large chunks 'o cash... just enough to make the market come back and not start dropping... yet.

I guess we'll see.

I don't trade my IRA in one lump some so putting my positions in that account would be really confusing.

 

[nnuut]

That's why they call it "The Wall of Worry"!
Definition of 'Wall Of Worry'

A phrase used to describe a bullish market trend occurring in the face of negative uncertainties.

Investopedia explains 'Wall Of Worry'

When stock prices are rising regardless of market uncertainties, the stock market is said to be climbing a wall of worry. These worries may include political or economic risks. Once the perceived risks have been resolved or have past, average market share prices tend to decline.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp#ixzz1jI0JZiWs​

 

[Mapper]

Gotcha.

I was also still wondering what the 3-digit numbers are in your table. Are those percentages too?

And yep, I'm jumping right onto that wall of worry. Up is up! until it's down

 

[daze823]

Going long in TSP, does that refer to staying in for awhile?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I was also still wondering what the 3-digit numbers are in your table. Are those percentages too?

Those are Autotracker positions...

Going long in TSP, does that refer to staying in for awhile?

No, it means that I am in equities or bull type ETFs
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/short.asp

http://etfdb.com/screener/

 

[Mapper]

Ah, that makes more sense.

I was thinking that something in your formula required a percentage that wasn't using a decimal for some unknown reason. I know that doesn't really make any sense, but I couldn't come up with anything better. Thanks for all the clarifications. It's a nice table and I also hope you continue to post it. I keep toying with the idea of trying to make my positioning more mechanical and less emotional but, contrary to everything I have learned and common wisdom, I do much better when I use my gut as a guide after digesting everything I see happening. I would love to join the Auto tracker but I know I'll get too concerned about my position and that will influence my moves. Glad there are others out there that can make more mechanical/quantifiable sense of the market.

I definitely feel like a shoe is going to drop one of these days but I'm hoping we all can make a little more money before that happens.

Cheers to the long weekend.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

RMI OCD Chart:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1144"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD].
Jken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD].
Just
RMI[/TD]
[TD].
My TSP
Returns[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Dec[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]56%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-271[/TD]
[TD]5.80%[/TD]
[TD]2.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]49%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long ?[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-293[/TD]
[TD]0.01%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]74%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe-635[/TD]
[TD]Safe-585[/TD]
[TD]Short-776[/TD]
[TD]Long-471[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-672[/TD]
[TD]0.02%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]54%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe-627[/TD]
[TD]Safe-579[/TD]
[TD]Short-788[/TD]
[TD]Long-461[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663[/TD]
[TD]0.02%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]46%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe-643[/TD]
[TD]Long-596[/TD]
[TD]Short-808[/TD]
[TD]Long-431[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-679[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]44%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-708[/TD]
[TD]Safe-637[/TD]
[TD]Long-760[/TD]
[TD]Short-786[/TD]
[TD]Long-482[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-465[/TD]
[TD]0.24%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]81%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-730[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663[/TD]
[TD]Long-428[/TD]
[TD]Short-802[/TD]
[TD]Long-450[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-482[/TD]
[TD]0.25%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Short-586[/TD]
[TD]Long-712[/TD]
[TD]Long-288[/TD]
[TD]Short-835[/TD]
[TD]Long-411[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-536[/TD]
[TD]0.67%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]56%[/TD]
[TD]Short-605[/TD]
[TD]Long-547[/TD]
[TD]Long-229[/TD]
[TD]Short-624[/TD]
[TD]Long-411[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-489[/TD]
[TD]1.11%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]59%[/TD]
[TD]Short-640[/TD]
[TD]Long-506[/TD]
[TD]Long-206[/TD]
[TD]Short-658[/TD]
[TD]Long-384[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-458[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Jan[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Glad there are others out there that can make more mechanical/quantifiable sense of the market.

Trying, but definately not there yet. What I really need to do is quit watching the market intra-day...
I am either:
Dang, I should have went short!
Dang, I should have went long!
@#$%^&@#$%$^, why did I go short?
@#$%^&@#$%$^, why did I go long?
Sigh, it will eventually go back (up/down)...
If I had only...

So, all emotions are not out by any stretch...

 

[Mapper]

:laugh:
Yep,

Have the day off today, just got up to check things out and have that "dang" should have doubled down on the short feeling!

But hey;; can't win, or learn, without trying!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

RNI's OCD Chart:

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 1142"]
[TR]
[TD].
Trading
Date[/TD]
[TD].
Seven
Sentinels[/TD]
[TD]TSP
Talk
SS[/TD]
[TD]Top 5
In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD]Top
10 In
Stocks[/TD]
[TD].
Season
-ality[/TD]
[TD].
.
Uptrend[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
Ross[/TD]
[TD]J
Ken
Johnson[/TD]
[TD].
10 Mon
M-SMA [/TD]
[TD].
LMBF
Method[/TD]
[TD]Non-TSP
Buy/Sell
Model[/TD]
[TD]Long-
Short
Timing[/TD]
[TD].
Just
RMI[/TD]
[TD].
My TSP
Returns[/TD]
[TD]My IRA
Realized
Returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Weight?[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[TD]???[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30-Dec[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]40%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]56%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-271[/TD]
[TD]5.80%[/TD]
[TD]2.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]49%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long ?[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-293[/TD]
[TD]0.01%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]74%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe-635[/TD]
[TD]Safe-585[/TD]
[TD]Short-776[/TD]
[TD]Long-471[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-672[/TD]
[TD]0.02%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]80%[/TD]
[TD]54%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe-627[/TD]
[TD]Safe-579[/TD]
[TD]Short-788[/TD]
[TD]Long-461[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663[/TD]
[TD]0.02%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]60%[/TD]
[TD]46%[/TD]
[TD]Buy G[/TD]
[TD]Safe-643[/TD]
[TD]Long-596[/TD]
[TD]Short-808[/TD]
[TD]Long-431[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-679[/TD]
[TD]0.18%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]20%[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]44%[/TD]
[TD]Safe-708[/TD]
[TD]Safe-637[/TD]
[TD]Long-760[/TD]
[TD]Short-786[/TD]
[TD]Long-482[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-465[/TD]
[TD]0.24%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]81%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Short-730[/TD]
[TD]Safe-663[/TD]
[TD]Long-428[/TD]
[TD]Short-802[/TD]
[TD]Long-450[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Short-482[/TD]
[TD]0.25%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]90%[/TD]
[TD]50%[/TD]
[TD]Short-586[/TD]
[TD]Long-712[/TD]
[TD]Long-288[/TD]
[TD]Short-835[/TD]
[TD]Long-411[/TD]
[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-536[/TD]
[TD]0.67%[/TD]
[TD]0.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]56%[/TD]
[TD]Short-605
[/TD]
[TD]Long-547[/TD]
[TD]Long-229[/TD]
[TD]Short-624[/TD]
[TD]Long-411[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-489[/TD]
[TD]1.11%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13-Jan[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
[TD]59%[/TD]
[TD]Short-640[/TD]
[TD]Long-506[/TD]
[TD]Long-206[/TD]
[TD]Short-658[/TD]
[TD]Long-384[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-458[/TD]
[TD]0.46%[/TD]
[TD]0.62%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17-Jan
[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[TD]10%[/TD]
[TD]65%[/TD]
[TD]Short-506[/TD]
[TD]Long-600[/TD]
[TD]Long-236[/TD]
[TD]Short-530[/TD]
[TD]Long-429[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
[TD]Long-524[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

I really don't get the whole "top X of the tracker". It seems like text-book dumb money to me. In which case shouldn't it be a contrarian indicator?

When the market goes down, everyone that was invested in stocks falls out of the top 10. So the top 10 become less invested, but not necessarily because the top 10 sold.
When the market goes up, any top 10 not in stocks gets passed by people just below them who are in stocks, causing the top 10 to look more invested.

But in both these cases, its likely already too late for a person timing the market, hence being the dumb money. Its not tracking what the top people are doing, its tracking how the top people got there.

The only time it would work is would be during longer bull/bear trends. But its still cause and affect.

The top X are where they are because of where the market already took them, not because of what they think the market will do next.