jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Today looks like it could get real ugly.
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- Thread starter RealMoneyIssues
- Start date
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 100
Maybe
Yes, it is looking that way...
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Maybe
Yes, it is looking that way...
So what's the plan? You guys going to buy the dip? :nuts: I'm 50 in, 50 out, so I'm in no hurry. I'll give half of whatever this correction takes, and buy back in at the first sign of a bounce.
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
So what's the plan? You guys going to buy the dip? :nuts: I'm 50 in, 50 out, so I'm in no hurry. I'll give half of whatever this correction takes, and buy back in at the first sign of a bounce.
I might jump in 50% C as my system was close to flipping back to a Buy on Thursday evening. Don't want to go all the way in. This will be my last IFT for the month.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 100
So what's the plan? You guys going to buy the dip? :nuts: I'm 50 in, 50 out, so I'm in no hurry. I'll give half of whatever this correction takes, and buy back in at the first sign of a bounce.
Nothing to buy with, all in S right now...
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Nothing to buy with, all in S right now...
Sorry, maybe it will bounce back after the initial gap down.
clester
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 37
If we follow Europe we will head on down. They are down 2-3%
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 100
Doubtful because there is way too much Hopium going around. I used up all my stash and can't find a dealer...
Sensei
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 27
Nothing to buy with, all in S right now...
Ouch, sorry man. For some reason I thought you had sold your position this month. FWIW, I think we're in the beginning of a top, and if you just hold tight for a few days~weeks, we'll float back up over 1400. Then you can sell before the next downdraft.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 100
Sounds good, lets see if the market agrees...
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Things are looking worse. Maybe a dead cat bounce tomorrow? Worth playing?
jpcavin
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 97
Hey RMI
Out of the top 50 or so on the tracker, is there some way to research who made the best timed entry and who made the best timed exit? If we had some way of tracking that, I think it would be a great tool for everyone. For example, if NASA makes the best timed exits and Davd-O makes the best timed entries, one would exit when NASA exits and one would enter when Dave-O enters. What da ya think?
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Hey RMI
Out of the top 50 or so on the tracker, is there some way to research who made the best timed entry and who made the best timed exit? If we had some way of tracking that, I think it would be a great tool for everyone. For example, if NASA makes the best timed exits and Davd-O makes the best timed entries, one would exit when NASA exits and one would enter when Dave-O enters. What da ya think?
Definitely worth looking into.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 100
Hey RMI
Out of the top 50 or so on the tracker, is there some way to research who made the best timed entry and who made the best timed exit? If we had some way of tracking that, I think it would be a great tool for everyone. For example, if NASA makes the best timed exits and Davd-O makes the best timed entries, one would exit when NASA exits and one would enter when Dave-O enters. What da ya think?
I could only do that with the folks I track and I only track those that are not B&H and hit the top 10 at some point. I can look back at that information, but since the "best" entry is subjective, what I think was a good move may not be what you think is... additionally, it also depends on whether you are a medium (TSP) or long term (semi-B&H) trader/investor.
Just my 2 cents
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
I think we all agree that around Jan 1 was a good entry point. A good exit would have been when we were up 13.5%. I don't remebr when that was. Can RMI look back and see if anyone went to G when the S was up 13.5% for 2012? If there are several people that got in around Jan 1 and then exited around 13.5% gain, that might provide some insight. Better yet, if MacDaddy would just tell us when to get in and out, we would all do well.
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Hey RMI
Out of the top 50 or so on the tracker, is there some way to research who made the best timed entry and who made the best timed exit? If we had some way of tracking that, I think it would be a great tool for everyone. For example, if NASA makes the best timed exits and Davd-O makes the best timed entries, one would exit when NASA exits and one would enter when Dave-O enters. What da ya think?
I forgot, what happened on April 5? I think that is when you said you hould have got out.
jpcavin
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 97
On April 4th, my composite rate of change ended at 3.12 (from a previous 6.46). When it drops below 4, it signals a sell. On April 5th, the following day which would have been when I would have sold, the 3d sma crossed below the 10d sma for further confirmation. On April 5th, slow stochastics cross from above 80 to below 80. This is where it gets tricky for me...I get this readin when I look at a 1 month view, but if I look at a 3 month view, i get a different reading. This is where I am stuck...Maybe Mr Ross can help me here.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 100
RMI's OCD Chart - Contrarian Signal:
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[TD].
Trading
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[TD]Top 5
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[TD]Top
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.
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Seven
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[TD]TSP
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SS[/TD]
[TD]Mr
John
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[TD]J
Ken
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[TD]Non-TSP
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????
lol[/TD]
[TD]In a
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[TD]Term[/TD]
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[TD]Medium[/TD]
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[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
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[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]100[/TD]
[TD]SPX[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]10-Apr[/TD]
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[TD]Stop_Half[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
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[TD]11-Apr[/TD]
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[TD]Long-453[/TD]
[TD]Safe-857[/TD]
[TD]Safe-4[/TD]
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[TD]Hold_Buy[/TD]
[TD]Buy-6[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]12-Apr[/TD]
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[TD]Short[/TD]
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[TD]Safe-162[/TD]
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[TD]Sell-4[/TD]
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[TD]16-Apr[/TD]
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[TD]Long-942[/TD]
[TD]Long-452[/TD]
[TD]Safe-935[/TD]
[TD]Safe-6[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
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[TD]Hold[/TD]
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[TD]Long[/TD]
[TD]-31.10%[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]17-Apr[/TD]
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[TD]Safe-939[/TD]
[TD]Safe-6[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
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[TD]Long-122[/TD]
[TD]Hold_Short[/TD]
[TD]Sell-3[/TD]
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[TD]18-Apr[/TD]
[TD]100%[/TD]
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[TD]56%[/TD]
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[TD]Safe-995[/TD]
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[TD]19-Apr[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]24-Apr
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[TD]Safe-931[/TD]
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[TD]Buy[/TD]
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[TD]Safe-79[/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
[TD]Sell-4
[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
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[TR]
[TD]25-Apr[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]48%[/TD]
[TD]Safe[/TD]
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[TD]Long[/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
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[/TD]
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[TD]26-Apr[/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
[TD]56%[/TD]
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[TD]Short[/TD]
[TD]Long[/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Buy[/TD]
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[TD] [/TD]
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[/TD]
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Well, yet another interesting day. The herd is buying dips, wary people are on the sidelines, traders are mostly staying in cash, and day traders are in hog-heaven...
So, are will looking for a quick sympathy bounce from here, or is there going to more noise from Europe? Day to day is what it is going to have to be for awhile. December 19th through April 2nd would have gained you 200 pts on the SPX (18%+). If the bull run is going to continue , then making lower lows and lower highs is not the way to do it...
While some have claimed that the EU and US markets have disconnected, there is too much evidence to the contrary. Although we only lost 0.8 to 1% where the EU lost from 2-3x that much today. Will we continue, or have our markets hit support?
I think the bigger question is do we follow Birchtree to Bull bliss, or be cautious and wait and see if there is a better buying opportunity as the markets complete the "correction." Some of the market indexes have completed a trend change (lower lows, lower highs), but not all of them. Can this bull run be saved, or is there further (much further) downside to come?
Who knows... Only time will tell
Have a Blessed night and good luck tomorrow.
jkenjohnson
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 24
Sorry, but another manual change. Mine flipped over to a buy last night. I got busy and did not post until this morning.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 100
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