RealMoneyIssues' Account Talk

[jpcavin]

Not sure what you mean.

You have a rule of thumb. Do you have another rule of thumb as a backup in case your first rule of thumb fails? :laugh:
Not trying to give you a hard time man. Just trying to understand how other people think. It helps my learning process.

 

[jpcavin]

She means when and what will encourage you to capitulate - when the SPX hits 1900?

Exactly!

 

[jkenjohnson]

You have a rule of thumb. Do you have another rule of thumb as a backup in case your first rule of thumb fails? :laugh:
Not trying to give you a hard time man. Just trying to understand how other people think. It helps my learning process.

No. If I don't see the pullback, I guess I'll miss out on a lot of profits. Remember, everybody is exuberant right now, but the market can fall just as fast as it has risen. I don't try to buy high and sell higher. I like to buy low and sell high. I am a bit conservative - maybe too much. I think we probably shouldn't hijack RMI's thread anymore.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Exactly!

By the way, I have over $1,000,000 in my TSP. I did not get there by being lucky.

 

[jpcavin]

I think we probably shouldn't hijack RMI's thread anymore.

It'll give him food for thought..

 

[JTH]

You have a rule of thumb. Do you have another rule of thumb as a backup in case your first rule of thumb fails? :laugh:
Not trying to give you a hard time man. Just trying to understand how other people think. It helps my learning process.

This 6-month rally has already seen 3 shallow 3% pullbacks, a rational trader doesn't buy at the top of the channel, they wait for prices to reel in, it is the right choice to make the majority of the time. TSP's IFT restrictions make it prudent to take the conservative approach, if you buy at the top, then you are forced to absorb the loss and/or exit to the G-Fund where you may not get the opportunity to jump back in when/if the rally resumes.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I think we probably shouldn't hijack RMI's thread anymore.

Heck, I don't care... it's not like I am saying anything important...

Thanks for stopping by !!

 

[jpcavin]

This 6-month rally has already seen 3 shallow 3% pullbacks, a rational trader doesn't buy at the top of the channel, they wait for prices to reel in, it is the right choice to make the majority of the time. TSP's IFT restrictions make it prudent to take the conservative approach, if you buy at the top, then you are forced to absorb the loss and/or exit to the G-Fund where you may not get the opportunity to jump back in when/if the rally resumes.

I hear ya and I agree with ya. I guess I am stuck in "what if" mode. What if the markets keep going higher? I guess it goes back to what RMI said earlier. If you are invested you have one mentality and if you are out you have another.

 

[WorkFE]

I have over $1,000,000 in my TSP.

Shoot, don't we all. :nuts:

 

[jkenjohnson]

Shoot, don't we all. :nuts:

I was trying to make a point. I do not care how much money anyone has but me.

 

[tsptalk]

By the way, I have over $1,000,000 in my TSP. I did not get there by being lucky.

You and 74 other people, although I'll bet the list is growing this year. That's quite an elite group you're in. Not that I want folks posting their balance, but congratulations!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc/8487-tsp-millionaires.html#post276401

 

[jkenjohnson]

You and 74 other people, although I'll bet the list is growing this year. That's quite an elite group you're in. Not that I want folks posting their balance, but congratulations!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc/8487-tsp-millionaires.html#post276401

Took 26 years to get there.

 

[rktect1]

A million is all nice and fine but what really matters at the end of the day is the percent increase. I've got a lot invested in no less than four accounts and they are all over 12% for the last four months.

I really really want to take every last dollar out of the market right now. But I won't. I'm probably about 65% invested right now. Ill wait for a down turn hopefully to put more in. I'm no permabull that is for certain.

 

[jpcavin]

You and 74 other people, although I'll bet the list is growing this year. That's quite an elite group you're in. Not that I want folks posting their balance, but congratulations!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc/8487-tsp-millionaires.html#post276401

All I keep thinking about is where that million would be today if it was invested in the "S" fund since the beginning of the year...:nuts:

 

[jkenjohnson]

All I keep thinking about is where that million would be today if it was invested in the "S" fund since the beginning of the year...:nuts:

I have been in and out of the S fund. I guess you are assuming that I have been in the G fund since January 1. I am up 7% for the year. If you are looking at the Autotracker, don't - I usually don't update it when I make a move.

 

[jkenjohnson]

All I keep thinking about is where that million would be today if it was invested in the "S" fund since the beginning of the year...:nuts:

I have been in and out of the S fund. I guess you are assuming that I have been in the G fund since January 1. I am up 7% for the year. If you are looking at the Autotracker, don't - I usually don't update it when I make a move.

 

[jpcavin]

I have been in and out of the S fund. I guess you are assuming that I have been in the G fund since January 1. I am up 7% for the year. If you are looking at the Autotarcker, don't - I usually don't update it when I make a move.

Not assuming that at all. But it is safe to assume that if you are not in now, then you have not been in for the entier year..that's all.

My thinking had more to do with how it would apply to me. i.e. what would it be like to have $1,000,000 and how much more it would grow if I had it invested in S all year.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Not assuming that at all. But it is safe to assume that if you are not in now, then you have not been in for the entier year..that's all.

My thinking had more to do with how it would apply to me. i.e. what would it be like to have $1,000,000 and how much more it would grow if I had it invested in S all year.

Would have been nice if I had stayed in, but I am in preservation mode while still trying to get a decent return.

 

[jpcavin]

So RMI, did you stay in "I" or did you switch to something else? I would like to be 50C/50S or 40C/40S/20I but not willing to waste an IFT.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Economic Calendar for today:

Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET

Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET

Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET

Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

Just remember, say it with me...

Good news is good for the market...
Bad news is good for the market...

Well, mixed news is good for the market (which makes sense based on what I postulated above)...

Bulls are bulls and Bears are hibernating. Looks like I will have a 3% gain for this year.

Have a great year, see ya in 2014 !!