ravensfan's Account Talk

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Hello my High Flying Friend! So how is it going??? Today was another little stinker.

I should have exited C fund TODAY per my latest strategy (candle wick crossed the 20 EMA two days ago) and today was higher, which appears to be what traditionally happens and then it drops. But MACD line still sloping up so that is good. Still if it drops tomorrow or the next day, it will just reinforce the historical info I have been seeing on this.

As for the S fund, its time to get out as well....MACD is going negative. Just really dislike locking in another loss. I might just ride this out a bit longer, but per my strategy I should get out.

So tomorrow is the day I should bail on both C and S fund. Will see.....:rolleyes: Stay in or jump?????? ugggghhhhhhhhh

Best Wishes to You! DBAnnie :)
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hello my High Flying Friend! So how is it going??? Today was another little stinker.

I should have exited C fund TODAY per my latest strategy (candle wick crossed the 20 EMA two days ago) and today was higher, which appears to be what traditionally happens and then it drops. But MACD line still sloping up so that is good. Still if it drops tomorrow or the next day, it will just reinforce the historical info I have been seeing on this.

As for the S fund, its time to get out as well....MACD is going negative. Just really dislike locking in another loss. I might just ride this out a bit longer, but per my strategy I should get out.

So tomorrow is the day I should bail on both C and S fund. Will see.....:rolleyes: Stay in or jump?????? ugggghhhhhhhhh

Best Wishes to You! DBAnnie :)
Click to expand...

Not as high flying as I once was. Got this ball and chain around my ankle known as the S Fund. What's that saying; It's hard to soar with eagles when you work with turkeys...The S Fund has definately been a turkey of late.

Regarding my strategy, I will stay in at least through early May. After that I will sit in the G Fund and wait for a better opportunity. Like you, I really hate locking in a loss, but if that dog won't hunt (the S Fund) there's no sense riding it down to new lows. Better to jump out for awhile and take the C train...

All The Best...Ravensfan
 
Whipsaw said:
JTH pulled down his signature analysis links... maybe somethings wrong? He hasn't posted since Thursday... :worried:
Click to expand...

Nothing wrong, yes the signature block has been cleaned up but the threads are still there. Last week was a busy week, my college work is picking up, I did a half-marathon on Sunday with my daughter, compounding this, my PC at work took a dump and it's just now back online.

On a lighter note, there isn't enough beer to overcome the pain of not training for a 13.1 mile run, like I always tell people, if you don't know what you're doing, fake it till you make it :D
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hello my High Flying Friend! So how is it going??? Today was another little stinker.

I should have exited C fund TODAY per my latest strategy (candle wick crossed the 20 EMA two days ago) and today was higher, which appears to be what traditionally happens and then it drops. But MACD line still sloping up so that is good. Still if it drops tomorrow or the next day, it will just reinforce the historical info I have been seeing on this.

As for the S fund, its time to get out as well....MACD is going negative. Just really dislike locking in another loss. I might just ride this out a bit longer, but per my strategy I should get out.

So tomorrow is the day I should bail on both C and S fund. Will see.....:rolleyes: Stay in or jump?????? ugggghhhhhhhhh

Best Wishes to You! DBAnnie :)
Click to expand...

ravensfan said:
Not as high flying as I once was. Got this ball and chain around my ankle known as the S Fund. What's that saying; It's hard to soar with eagles when you work with turkeys...The S Fund has definately been a turkey of late.

Regarding my strategy, I will stay in at least through early May. After that I will sit in the G Fund and wait for a better opportunity. Like you, I really hate locking in a loss, but if that dog won't hunt (the S Fund) there's no sense riding it down to new lows. Better to jump out for awhile and take the C train...

All The Best...Ravensfan
Click to expand...
Hello Ravensfan, was just looking at charts again. Yes I should pull out tomorrow....but again I am straying from my strategy. Just keep doing that! I am fairly certain I am not bailing tomorrow.....but if I do, it will be last minute. Will be reading a little more tonight about today's price action, and decide in morning. I just want to give it another day or two. Best wishes, SBAnnie :)
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hello Ravensfan, was just looking at charts again. Yes I should pull out tomorrow....but again I am straying from my strategy. Just keep doing that! I am fairly certain I am not bailing tomorrow.....but if I do, it will be last minute. Will be reading a little more tonight about today's price action, and decide in morning. I just want to give it another day or two. Best wishes, SBAnnie :)
Click to expand...

Charts and sentiment are showing strength at least thru 5 May (hey isn't that Cinco de Mayo) and then the rest of the month is iffy until the last few days. Look at Tom's May chart to see what I mean. With that in mind, I will stay the course at least thru Monday and then jump to the G Fund until more favorable conditions occur. Of course FOMC minutes and Friday's jobs number could change everything. So for now, the Raven will sit on his perch and swang with the gang!

All The Best...Ravensfan
 
Sounds like you and I share the same thought process. Better to lick our wounds in the G then get thrashed even more in the may to stay away.
 
BichonFreeze said:
Sounds like you and I share the same thought process. Better to lick our wounds in the G then get thrashed even more in the may to stay away.
Click to expand...

Problem with May is the stats are so bad, that folks may refuse to jump in because they are focusing on past stats over present price. last May the C-Fund made 2.34%, ranking 175 on the Auto Tracker, that was a bad month for me, I lost more than 2%. I spent nearly the entire month in the F-Fund and got trampled for it.

From May 1st 2013
JTH said:
Going back to 1963, today was the 2nd worst May 1st. Of the previous Top 10 worst May 1st, 8 closed the next day in the positive.
Click to expand...

From 3 May 2013
JTH said:
At the moment, I don't plan on getting in for the first half of May. If I'm wrong it will suck...
Click to expand...

From 6 May
JTH said:
These past 2 days have not been fun for me, I've manged to lose .50% in the F-Fund and that's a lot to lose in 2 days. I'm also number 8 from the bottom on the Tracker MTD, Number 1048, it's pretty darn hard to get any lower than that. My patience is getting tested, my position in TZA will be a good guide as to what I should do, thus far it's holding...
Click to expand...
 
JTH said:
Problem with May is the stats are so bad, that folks may refuse to jump in because they are focusing on past stats over present price. last May the C-Fund made 2.34%, ranking 175 on the Auto Tracker, that was a bad month for me, I lost more than 2%. I spent nearly the entire month in the F-Fund and got trampled for it.

From May 1st 2013


From 3 May 2013


From 6 May
Click to expand...

Yep, and last May the S Fund gained 2.71%. I tooking quite a shellacing in April (-3.66%) so there is lots of ground to be made up. As you say, May stats are so bad so being on top of your game will be paramount to success. I've remained 100% invested in the S Fund since COB 1 April, which will give me the ability to get out in May when things go south and then buy back in later in the month when they turn around. Hopefully my strategy for May will get me back on track.
 
JTH said:
Problem with May is the stats are so bad, that folks may refuse to jump in because they are focusing on past stats over present price. last May the C-Fund made 2.34%, ranking 175 on the Auto Tracker, that was a bad month for me, I lost more than 2%. I spent nearly the entire month in the F-Fund and got trampled for it.
Click to expand...

That may be true for 2013 (S fund grew 2.34%), but in 2012 the S fund lost 6.01% (1.27% in 2011), which is what I'm invested in. I'm planning on buying a house in Aug - Nov time frame, and it's highly likely I'll be borrowing from my TSP to help out with the purchase. I had figured April to be a safer bet on putting money in the S fund, but got so banged up to the tune of close to -7% at one point, I was trapped.
 
BichonFreeze said:
That may be true for 2013 (S fund grew 2.34%), but in 2012 the S fund lost 6.01% (1.27% in 2011), which is what I'm invested in. I'm planning on buying a house in Aug - Nov time frame, and it's highly likely I'll be borrowing from my TSP to help out with the purchase. I had figured April to be a safer bet on putting money in the S fund, but got so banged up to the tune of close to -7% at one point, I was trapped.
Click to expand...

In trying to find some ray of hope in the S Fund, the 10 day SMA is about to cross above the 20 day SMA. With a positive day today, that will happen. The 10 and 20 are still below the 50 day but I look at this as a sign of improvement. In addition, over the past 10 trading days the average daily return is +1.38%, another positive sign. I'm not a big fan of borrowing against my TSP and hope you have considered all other options before doing so. IMHO
 
Yeah I really don't want to borrow against it either, but interest rates are so low right now I'm considering skipping buying a starter home to spend more on a final home.
 
BF
i took a tsp loan out several years ago and it worked out great for me. i was paying it back and contributing also which made pop back up to all time highs with my account. i knew i had to pay it off before i retired or face capitol gains tax. so i worked with my bank since i wanted to get a lower interest rate on my home. planned extra money with that and payed off tsp loan. its all good now. just my take.
BichonFreeze said:
Yeah I really don't want to borrow against it either, but interest rates are so low right now I'm considering skipping buying a starter home to spend more on a final home.
Click to expand...
 
GUCHI said:
BF
i took a tsp loan out several years ago and it worked out great for me. i was paying it back and contributing also which made pop back up to all time highs with my account. i knew i had to pay it off before i retired or face capitol gains tax. so i worked with my bank since i wanted to get a lower interest rate on my home. planned extra money with that and payed off tsp loan. its all good now. just my take.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's really difficult to say what's right or wrong. The thing on my side is time. I have well over 35+ years before I retire, heck if I can retire. I don't have much in my TSP account, meaning by taking out a loan I'm hurting my base to build interest off early in my career. At the same time, I feel the housing market in the DMV area is so insulated from government money that it's better to take advantage of lower interest rates then hope for home values to drop; namely because they don't really drop here. Certainly there are markets that are cheaper here, but the crime and school systems substantially get worse.
 
ravensfan said:
In trying to find some ray of hope in the S Fund, the 10 day SMA is about to cross above the 20 day SMA. With a positive day today, that will happen. The 10 and 20 are still below the 50 day but I look at this as a sign of improvement. In addition, over the past 10 trading days the average daily return is +1.38%, another positive sign.
Click to expand...
Hi Ravensfan, I too hope it moves up further. The DWCPF closed at 999.04 and by my calc needs to go another 17 points or so before it goes above the last high. Would be nice....but at least the Slow Stochastic is sloping upward, and MACD just crossed into positive territory.. Keeping fingers crossed. :worried: I'm not getting out just yet! Best Wishes, DBAnnie :)
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi Ravensfan, I too hope it moves up further. The DWCPF closed at 999.04 and by my calc needs to go another 17 points or so before it goes above the last high. Would be nice....but at least the Slow Stochastic is sloping upward, and MACD just crossed into positive territory.. Keeping fingers crossed. :worried: I'm not getting out just yet! Best Wishes, DBAnnie :)
Click to expand...

I'm showing DWCPF hitting 1047.54 which occured on 4 March as the high for 2014. If that were to occur I would be back in positive territory...woohoo! I'm still going to deploy my strategy for May which is to closely monitor DWCPF. If things go south (and chances are they will) I'll bail and wait for a better entry point later in the month. But for now, I'm riding the bull. :rolleyes:
 
Guess it's not that clear cut. Had to give me a few minutes to look at the report, seems like Wall St. doesn't really know how to view it either.
 
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