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ravensfan's Account Talk
- Thread starter ravensfan
- Start date
ravensfan
Well-known member
I've heard that is the best time...high fear = low prices. Of course many other factors go into timing the bottom, but fear is what drives an oversold condition. IMHO of course.
BichonFreeze
Member
Does this index really hold merit, it seems on a day to day basis it varies so greatly. Granted volatility this year has been ridiculous at times, so maybe it's a bit difficult for this index to track.
ravensfan
Well-known member
By itself, not so much, but when combined with other indicators it helps to define sentiment.
BichonFreeze
Member
Definitely is an indication 1) the S fund may be stalling and or out of gas while 2) the C fund catches up. In any event, after being wrecked in April by the S-Fund, I decided my future entry's will be split between the S and the C.
ravensfan
Well-known member
I think that's a good call. The C Fund has definately been leading the charge of late and IMHO merits some consideration at least until the S Fund gets back on track. The key though is timing, when to get in and when to get out. Good luck with whatever you decide to do and may the Investment Gods smile down on you...
ravensfan
Well-known member
Fear and Greed Index as of 9 Jun 14: 92% = extreme greed
Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney
Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney
Whipsaw
Well-known member
What does extreme greed indicate? Chasing? A top is near?
Sensei
Well-known member
I like your updates on these stats. Are you using them in any particular way to determine IFTs? I once tried to back test a "Best Fund Last Week" type of system, and it yielded horrible results. :laugh: There have been extensive discussions on the LMBF thread about whether you could maximize results by using a best fund last 15 days system, but I think the numbers keep leading people to the monthly model. Just curious what you've got in mind regarding these stats. Thanks!
ravensfan
Well-known member
Good question! This is just a simple Excel spreadsheet I put together to help me gain a bigger picture view of the markets. Unfortunately it paints a picture of where we have been, not where we are headed. But coupling it with things like MACD, Bollenger Bands, Slow Stochastics and RSI, I get a better feel for the market and hope to make more informed decisions on my investments. For instance, I knew pretty quickly when the S Fund tanked in April that the best place to be was the C Fund. Had I trusted what I was seeing and moved to the C Fund , I would probably be in positive territory for 2014 but...shoulda, woulda, coulda. I've also watched the S Fund come back in recent weeks. So with daily stats, you can see the momentum change from fund to fund.
I never thought about backtesting and coupling that with 2 IFT's per month, but that may be something to look in to.
ravensfan
Well-known member
Exactly...I think it was Warren Buffet who said "Buy when everyone else fears the market".
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