Psychology and the market

[GGal]

Where is Ronald Reagan when we need him....



GGAL

 

[James48843]

Where is Ronald Reagan when we need him....



GGAL

GGAl, I hate to break this news to you, but Ronald Regan was the President of the United States at the time when the market got hit with the worst decline in history-

It was a Monday. I remember because I lost a lot of money that day.

October 19,. 1987, with Ronald Regan as President, our Dow Jones fell 22.6 percent in one day.

 

[GGal]

Exactly.

And I think he came on tv or did a press meeting and told everybody, hey, its all your head, if you'll just put your money back in everything will be okay.

And it was.

That's what I meant.

Never assume a woman is stupid just because she is a woman.

GGAL

 

[offtrack]

And I think he came on tv or did a press meeting and told everybody, hey, its all your head, if you'll just put your money back in everything will be okay.

And it was.

Well as another survivor I can tell you it wasn't quite as simple as that. :laugh: I tend to follow the thought that the economy and markets are somewhat independent of Presidents though.

 

[GGal]

Amazing. I crack a little joke about Reagan and the 87 crash, and men come out of the woodwork to challenge my knowledge and admonish me for my faulty reasoning.

Why am I not surprised?

GGAL

 

[mlk_man]

Amazing. I crack a little joke about Reagan and the 87 crash, and men come out of the woodwork to challenge my knowledge and admonish me for my faulty reasoning.

Why am I not surprised?

GGAL

You were fine until you made this little comment. Two men means "coming out of the woodwork"? Also, you say that the market turned around after Reagan's speech but then next thing you say is that your original comment was just a joke. Now we get this little male bashing post.

I wonder who the real ones not surprised are.

 

[James48843]

Ok=

Psychology time.

This morning, I looked at the early strength, and thought I saw a good opportunity to catch a bounce in the "I" upward tomorrow.

Then, I saw Tom move OUT of the market today, after I moved INTO the market.

Now, I see this huge force downward moving.

Lots of psychology today.

What are people thinking? Are we at a near panic point for the general public?

Or is this the buying opportunity of the year?

You have to admit, it's a nice 10% decline from the high, and then some, and stocks are "on sale" now.

Where will the bottom be?

12,000 Dow?

10,000 Dow?

 

[vectorman]

" Lots of psychology today. " I'll say...


Fear...Fear...Fear



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[tsptalk]

Ok=

Psychology time.

This morning, I looked at the early strength, and thought I saw a good opportunity to catch a bounce in the "I" upward tomorrow.

Then, I saw Tom move OUT of the market today, after I moved INTO the market.

I moved out in a "sell the rally" move. Unfortunately, by COB we had no rally. We will get a decent rebound soon - but it may be another selling opportunity.

The thing that spooks me most is that the market is not bouncing from extreme oversold conditions. That's new and a concern.

 

[vectorman]

I moved out in a "sell the rally" move. Unfortunately, by COB we had no rally. We will get a decent rebound soon - but it may be another selling opportunity.

The thing that spooks me most is that the market is not bouncing from extreme oversold conditions. That's new and a concern.

" The thing that spooks me most is that the market is not bouncing from extreme oversold conditions. "

That's when the panic starts to take hold.:worried:

Everyones' rush to keep 4 years worth of profits causes the situation to get worse. And in my mind this all snow balled after Cramer exploded on TV, getting the media to start scaring the heck out of the world. Besides, its the big dogs game, we just hope to hang on to the leftovers.

 

[tsptalk]

In 1997 we had a 1-day 500 point drop in the Dow - the equivilant of close to a 1000 point drop today. Now that was panic - and the next day's 250 point drop in the morning did mark the bottom of that correction.

Maybe that's what we need.

 

[Birchtree]

In times of panic I try to remind myself: What's easy to do is almost always the wrong thing to do. And what's hard to do is almost always what makes you money. It has worked for me on and off over many years. In November we'll look back and think....how silly we all were. Some will hold and many will run, only time will be the judge.

 

[ATCJeff]

Tom wrote.......

The thing that spooks me most is that the market is not bouncing from extreme oversold conditions. That's new and a concern.

This is the only reason I bailed today. We are not seeing the bounces.

 

[James48843]

The thing that spooks me most is that the market is not bouncing from extreme oversold conditions. That's new and a concern.

I absolutely concur.

Very odd.

I am trying to remember a period of similar behavior- the 10% correction and the accelerating downward thrusts. I am thinking this is more like January 1991. But the financial market is totally different and the outside influences are totally different this time. Which means that what we are seeing COULD be a cascading of letting off steam for the longer term run up, not just a simple 10% sell off before resuming upward. The housing market rules. Look at the parallels between the current state of the housing market, (and the NAHB confidence numbers) now and January 1991. That is a better clue as to what is next.

And it is not pretty.

 

[Bullitt]

Let us be thankful we have commerce. Buy more. Buy more now. Buy. And be happy. The Shanghai Bull will save you from all evil.

Remember when the Bull arrived at the drunken orgy on Wall Street...

“From the next day, it started to go up,” says Di Modico. “It never stopped.”

WSJ LINK

 

[Bullitt]

This is what a mania looks like

Why Young People Should Buy Stocks on Margin

You don't have money, so the only way to have more exposure to the market is to employ a little leverage. It may be leverage, but it's not on a lot of money

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1982327,00.html

​

 

[Bullitt]

No wonder everybody is happy, it's nearly vertical right now. What ever happened to buy low, sell high? Let me guess- We've still got a long ways to get to match 2007 so right now you're actually buying low.

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