Greetings
This blog and most of the stats posted are geared towards our IFT limitations so it's only fair to post some November charts in Mid-October.
For the Long-term, here are some things we may want to consider as we prep our IFTs for the remainder of 2023:
--- From 1960, quarter 4 has a 78% win ratio (the best of 4 quarters)
--- From 1954 of the past 17 4-Year Presidential Cycles, Year 3 has a 76% win ratio (the 2nd best)
--- From 1954, Quarter 4 (of presidential year 3) has a 76% win ratio (the best of 4 quarters)
--- From 1960, the Month of November has a 68% win ratio (the 3rd best of 12) with the 4th best average-of-gains at 3.92%
Looking out into the short-medium timeframe:
--- For the last 10 days of October & the first 10 of November (for buyers) there is some weakness shown on trading days 18/19/21 towards the end of October. For sellers, there is some strength shown in the first 5 trading days of November.
--- For November 2023 we have 21 trading days, with a Holiday on Thursday the 23rd, followed by a half-day on Black Friday.
View attachment 59103
--- From November’s MTD statistical range. When the first day closed positive, the month closed up 11 of 13 times. Adding to this, when the first 3-Day’s performance was positive, the month closed up 13 of 16 times.
THE DAY OF MONTH LISTED WAS INCORRECT, UPDATE POST IN.
STATS FOR NOV
For now, we'll wait to see how October plays out and how this may impact November, thanks for reading!
This blog and most of the stats posted are geared towards our IFT limitations so it's only fair to post some November charts in Mid-October.
For the Long-term, here are some things we may want to consider as we prep our IFTs for the remainder of 2023:
--- From 1960, quarter 4 has a 78% win ratio (the best of 4 quarters)
--- From 1954 of the past 17 4-Year Presidential Cycles, Year 3 has a 76% win ratio (the 2nd best)
--- From 1954, Quarter 4 (of presidential year 3) has a 76% win ratio (the best of 4 quarters)
--- From 1960, the Month of November has a 68% win ratio (the 3rd best of 12) with the 4th best average-of-gains at 3.92%
Looking out into the short-medium timeframe:
--- For the last 10 days of October & the first 10 of November (for buyers) there is some weakness shown on trading days 18/19/21 towards the end of October. For sellers, there is some strength shown in the first 5 trading days of November.
--- For November 2023 we have 21 trading days, with a Holiday on Thursday the 23rd, followed by a half-day on Black Friday.
View attachment 59103
--- From November’s MTD statistical range. When the first day closed positive, the month closed up 11 of 13 times. Adding to this, when the first 3-Day’s performance was positive, the month closed up 13 of 16 times.
THE DAY OF MONTH LISTED WAS INCORRECT, UPDATE POST IN.
STATS FOR NOV
For now, we'll wait to see how October plays out and how this may impact November, thanks for reading!
