Pre-Bell ☕ Brief: 7-Oct-2025

[JTH]

[ARCHIVED — SEE TODAY’S THREAD]
Time: 2025-10-03 08:15 (ET, America/New_York)
Grades: Sources A/B | Bias: Mixed | Plausibility: High | Probability: 65% (Base)

Conclusion
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is delayed by the shutdown, so the open will lean on private jobs proxies and price action instead. The Washington Post+1 Breadth still needs to widen beyond a handful of leaders for gains to stick. If banks and industrials participate, today’s tone can improve. If participation narrows, any early strength likely fades. The dollar and yields matter, but without NFP the tape will overreact to headlines. Earnings updates and guidance changes will set the sector tone. The first hour is about confirmation: does leadership broaden, or do buyers tire quickly? Gold’s bid says hedging demand persists, so dips may find support but squeezes can stall. Net takeaway: constructive bias at the open, but conviction requires broader leadership and cleaner catalysts once NFP returns.

What to Watch in the First Hour
• ES: ON high/low zone 6,787/6,767. A hold above ON VWAP favors grind-up. Investing.com
• DXY near 97.9. A drop helps risk; a pop above 98 may cap tech. MarketWatch
• 10-year near 4.10%. A push to ~4.15% likely pressures NQ. MarketWatch
• WTI ~$61. If crude slides again, energy lags and small caps wobble. Investing.com
• Breadth: total put/call ~0.81 yesterday; <0.8 opens = frothy. YCharts

Situation Scan
Since Thursday’s 16:00 ET close, ES is modestly higher; NQ outperforms; RTY is positive. DXY is slightly weaker on the week. The 10-year yield is ~4.10%. WTI crude rebounds toward $61; Brent sits near $64. Gold trades near $3,880 per ounce. Asia ended higher overnight (Nikkei up). Europe’s Stoxx 600 is positive intraday. Government shutdown enters Day 3, pausing some U.S. data prints.

▶ Triggers to Watch Out For
• Any intraday move in the 10-year toward 4.15% or below 4.05%. MarketWatch
• Oil headlines from OPEC+/refinery incidents that swing crude >$1. Reuters
• Shutdown developments that restore or delay major data releases. Reuters

4M Power & Incentive Map
• Motivation: Bulls want rate-cut odds to anchor risk premia. Bears want shutdown angst and data void to sap confidence.
• Money: AI and chips keep leadership; cyclicals catch a bid if yields stay calm.
• Material: Oil supply headlines and any refinery issues could move energy quickly.
• Message: “No payrolls, no problem” narrative persists while the Fed path looks easier.

Evidence Block
2025-10-03: ES +0.17% pre-U.S. open; NQ firmer; RTY positive. Investing.com+2Yahoo Finance+2
2025-10-03: DXY ~97.9; week softer; yen firmer. MarketWatch
2025-10-03: 10-year ~4.10% early; prior close ~4.09–4.10%. MarketWatch+1
2025-10-03: WTI near $61; weekly drop 7–8% before bounce; Brent ~64. Reuters+2Investing.com+2
2025-10-03: Gold near $3,880; seventh straight weekly gain. Reuters
2025-10-03: Asia green; Nikkei up; Europe’s Stoxx 600 higher midday. Reuters
2025-10-02: Total put/call 0.81; VIX mid-teens. YCharts+1

Disclaimer: This is analysis, not advice.
Powered by AI-Intela v2.91 — Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.

 

[JTH]

Pre‑Bell Brief
Time: 2025‑10‑07 09:45 (ET)

Key Takeaway
• The S&P 500 has now posted 7 consecutive up closes, a streak whose longevity will depend heavily on today’s tone and opening.
• The U.S. Gov. shutdown continues to mute key economic releases, forcing markets to lean on Fed commentary and corporate news. [1,2]
• AI/semiconductor themes remain the main engines in equity performance, while defensive fronts watch from the sidelines.

What Moved Overnight
• AMD rallied sharply on a chip deal with OpenAI, fueling tech and AI exuberance. [3]
• U.S. futures slipped modestly, reflecting caution ahead of Fed signals and the risk of overextended price action. [4]
• The shutdown has delayed many major data releases, leaving investors starved for fresh economic direction. [2]

How the Prior Session Closed
• The S&P 500 notched a new all‑time closing high, extending the winning run. [1,3]
• The gains were led by mega‑cap tech and semiconductor names, offsetting weakness in more defensive sectors. [3]
• Treasury yields drifted slightly lower, hinting at mild bond support accompanying the rally. [3]

Today’s 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• A strong S&P 500 open could fortify the 8‑day streak; a weak one raises the risk of reversal.
• Keep an eye on AMD / semis / AI names for leadership signals.
• Watch dollar (USD) and Treasuries (esp. 2s/10s) — cross‑asset moves may pressure or support equity momentum.

Upcoming Headlines (5‑Day Window, ET)
• 10/07 TUE: U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug)
• 10/07 TUE: Fed Vice Chair Bowman speech
• 10/08 WED: FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 10/09 THU: Wholesale Inventories (Aug, revised)
• 10/10 FRI: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct prelim)

Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI‑Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.

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▶ Citation Block
[1] 2025‑10‑07: AP News: “Wall Street drifts around its records following its 7‑day winning streak”
[2] 2025‑10‑06: Reuters: “U.S. government shutdown: How it affects key economic data publishing”
[3] 2025‑10‑06: Reuters: “S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as investors focus on AMD‑OpenAI deal”
[4] 2025‑10‑07: Reuters: “Wall Street opens higher as Fed cues awaited”

 

[tsptalk]

Hope you don't mind, but I have been posting a link to some of your posts on x.com/tsptalk

 

[JTH]

Hope you don't mind, but I have been posting a link to some of your posts on x.com/tsptalk

Ha, only if's factual

Still tweaking the Blog Templates, it's a process, trying to get consistent + accurate results. Today's was released post bell which at the last minute created some intraday data problems.