Pre-Bell 
Brief
Time: 29-Oct-2025 07:22 (ET)
Key Takeaway
• Fresh highs Tuesday: SPX +0.23% with tech leadership; tone hinges on Fed cut odds and Big Tech tonight. [1]
• 10-year sits near 4.0% heading into the decision, a key check on multiples. [2]
• Dollar a touch firmer premarket, a small headwind if it persists. [3]
What Moved Overnight
• Futures slightly higher as AI bellwethers stay bid; VIX mixed; oil and gold firm. Link
• Nvidia gains again and nudges futures up, while traders eye a likely Fed cut this afternoon. Link
• Dollar index edges up and the 10-year hovers just under 4.0% into the open. Link
How the Prior Session Closed
• SPX +0.23% to 6,890.89 as UPS and PayPal paced winners; small caps lagged. Link
• IXIC +0.80% to 23,827.49, third straight record close. Link
• DJI +0.34% to 47,706.37, steady ahead of the Fed. Link
• Top SPX Winner: UPS (United Parcel Service) +8.0% (Industrials: Air Freight & Logistics) Link
• Bottom SPX Loser: RCL (Royal Caribbean Group) −8.5% (Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure) Link
♔ Equities & ♛ Barometer
• Prior Session: SPX added +0.23% with megacaps leading; 10-year near 4.0%, VIX steady, DXY firmed slightly.
• WTD: Risk-on bias with broader participation; small caps and transports improved but trailed megacaps.
• MTD: Mixed drift: rates volatility eased, supporting multiples; dollar firmness capped cyclicals.
• 3-Week: Momentum improved as VIX trended lower; dollar headwind faded.
TSP Stats
G-Fund Estimated Forward Returns • +0.0118% per session [4]
• 5 Sessions: +0.059% • November: +0.22% • 3 Months: +0.75% • 1 Year: +3.00%
FCSI Past-5 Sessions
• F-Fund +0.05% • C-Fund +2.32% • S-Fund +0.67% • I-Fund +1.42% [4]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For
• 10/29 WED 14:00 — [Fed] FOMC decision: expected −25 in 0.01 percent steps; guidance is the mover. [5]
• 10/29 WED 14:30 — [Fed] Powell presser: labor tone, balance-sheet path, and dot-path hints. [5]
• 10/29 WED — [Earnings] Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft after the bell: AI spend and margins in focus. [6]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)
• 10/29 WED 14:00 — [Fed] Rate decision and statement. [5]
• 10/29 WED 14:30 — [Fed] Powell press conference. [5]
• 10/30 THU 08:30 — [Macro] Q3 GDP (advance): soft-landing check. [7]
• 10/30 THU 17:00 — [Earnings] AAPL fiscal Q4 call. [8]
• 11/03 MON 10:00 — [Macro] ISM Manufacturing PMI. [9]
▶ Citation Block
[1] 29-Oct-2025: AP News: How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 10/28/2025
[2] 29-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Overview
[3] 29-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview
[4] 29-Oct-2025: TSPtalk.com: TSP Fund Prices (daily share prices)
[5] 29-Oct-2025: Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar (Oct 28–29, 2025)
[6] 27-Oct-2025: MarketScreener: Earnings calendar for Oct 27–31, 2025
[7] 30-Oct-2025: BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)
[8] 30-Oct-2025: Nasdaq: Apple (AAPL) earnings date
[9] n.d.: ISM: ISM PMI release time (Manufacturing)
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.
• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
BriefTime: 29-Oct-2025 07:22 (ET)
Key Takeaway• Fresh highs Tuesday: SPX +0.23% with tech leadership; tone hinges on Fed cut odds and Big Tech tonight. [1]
• 10-year sits near 4.0% heading into the decision, a key check on multiples. [2]
• Dollar a touch firmer premarket, a small headwind if it persists. [3]
What Moved Overnight• Futures slightly higher as AI bellwethers stay bid; VIX mixed; oil and gold firm. Link
• Nvidia gains again and nudges futures up, while traders eye a likely Fed cut this afternoon. Link
• Dollar index edges up and the 10-year hovers just under 4.0% into the open. Link
How the Prior Session Closed• SPX +0.23% to 6,890.89 as UPS and PayPal paced winners; small caps lagged. Link
• IXIC +0.80% to 23,827.49, third straight record close. Link
• DJI +0.34% to 47,706.37, steady ahead of the Fed. Link
• Top SPX Winner: UPS (United Parcel Service) +8.0% (Industrials: Air Freight & Logistics) Link
• Bottom SPX Loser: RCL (Royal Caribbean Group) −8.5% (Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure) Link
♔ Equities & ♛ Barometer
• Prior Session: SPX added +0.23% with megacaps leading; 10-year near 4.0%, VIX steady, DXY firmed slightly.
• WTD: Risk-on bias with broader participation; small caps and transports improved but trailed megacaps.
• MTD: Mixed drift: rates volatility eased, supporting multiples; dollar firmness capped cyclicals.
• 3-Week: Momentum improved as VIX trended lower; dollar headwind faded.
TSP StatsG-Fund Estimated Forward Returns • +0.0118% per session [4]
• 5 Sessions: +0.059% • November: +0.22% • 3 Months: +0.75% • 1 Year: +3.00%
FCSI Past-5 Sessions
• F-Fund +0.05% • C-Fund +2.32% • S-Fund +0.67% • I-Fund +1.42% [4]
Today's 1st Hour of Trading, What to Watch For• 10/29 WED 14:00 — [Fed] FOMC decision: expected −25 in 0.01 percent steps; guidance is the mover. [5]
• 10/29 WED 14:30 — [Fed] Powell presser: labor tone, balance-sheet path, and dot-path hints. [5]
• 10/29 WED — [Earnings] Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft after the bell: AI spend and margins in focus. [6]
Upcoming Headlines (5-Day Window, ET)• 10/29 WED 14:00 — [Fed] Rate decision and statement. [5]
• 10/29 WED 14:30 — [Fed] Powell press conference. [5]
• 10/30 THU 08:30 — [Macro] Q3 GDP (advance): soft-landing check. [7]
• 10/30 THU 17:00 — [Earnings] AAPL fiscal Q4 call. [8]
• 11/03 MON 10:00 — [Macro] ISM Manufacturing PMI. [9]
▶ Citation Block
[1] 29-Oct-2025: AP News: How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 10/28/2025
[2] 29-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note Overview
[3] 29-Oct-2025: MarketWatch: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Overview
[4] 29-Oct-2025: TSPtalk.com: TSP Fund Prices (daily share prices)
[5] 29-Oct-2025: Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar (Oct 28–29, 2025)
[6] 27-Oct-2025: MarketScreener: Earnings calendar for Oct 27–31, 2025
[7] 30-Oct-2025: BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate)
[8] 30-Oct-2025: Nasdaq: Apple (AAPL) earnings date
[9] n.d.: ISM: ISM PMI release time (Manufacturing)
Disclaimer: Any resemblance to actual outcomes is purely coincidental.• Powered by AI-Intela: Sometimes thinking hard, sometimes hardly thinking.
