Stocks rebounded nicely on Thursday with many indices moving from morning losses into a positive day. The Dow was not one of them as it ended the day down 20-points, but it had been down 85 at the morning's lows. Small caps had a good day leading to the upside.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The I-fund was up slightly and the F-fund was up despite despite some mixed results in the bond ETFs.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) bounced off the 20-day EMA for a third straight day and remained above the July breakout level and in the trading range box that we have been in and watching since mid-August. But if early 2014 is any indication, that could go on a long time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 2014 chart reminds us how long these consolidations can last as we saw similar action in March and all the way into May. There were a few fake-outs in both directions before the upside resumed, and during those fake-outs investors had to be careful or they would have been whipsawed in and out of stocks at the wrong time.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) had a nice day following up on Wednesday's positive reversal. It is back above the 20-day EMA but remains in a short-term downtrend. However, if the Russell 2000 is any indication, that downtrend may be breaking above the overhead resistance very soon.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell 2000 shows that breakout although its trend was more of a falling wedge, which we would expect to break to the upside. This is not a bad looking chart, but it needs to move above the early September high to create an official rising trend with a higher low and higher high.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Despite the small gain in the I-fund, the EFA (EAFE Index) was down but closed strongly with U.S. stocks rallying Thursday afternoon.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The IEF (Bonds / F-fund) open higher and filled the small open gap to start the day on Thursday, but the chart resumed its downward action and now the IEF has created a negative outside day, all below key support levels. They may be getting oversold in the short-term, but these bond charts are looking a lot more bearish than they were a week ago.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The F-fund closed with a small gain despite losses in the IEF and AGG ETF's.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
