Poolman's Account Talk

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noticed your timely IFT into the pond; so what's next? I've always found this "intermediate" condition (equity 20 dma between the 50 and 200; non-extreme/non-breakout ^VIX) difficult to read.
 
Just poking my head in to say hello. Be back when things become more volatile and fun. Sideways action bores me to swine ( i mean death). Grim Reaper replaces the bull. Watch out. :)
 
poolman said:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04282009/business/questions_about_goldman_sachs_role_in_ma_166505.htm
Click to expand...

Could some of the GS consp... be true? Is GS manipulating the markets?
From M.A. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/04/martin-armstrong-on-goldman-sachs.html
(8) Obama was the golden Manchurian Candidate of Goldman Sachs, is perhaps a bit over the top. It is true that the employees at Goldman Sachs were among the largest donors to Obama as reported by Portfolio $884,000.

a) the Rumor was that Goldman Sachs manipulates Obama and is on its way to become its own superpower.

Truth:
Goldman Sachs did not only back Obama. You will see they supported McCain as well. They know how to play politics very well. Goldman Sachs works very hard at controlling government. They groom their own for positions within the executive branch. Yet don't forget New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine. Also do not for a moment think this is limited to the United States. We also see the World Bank run by Robert Zoellick, who was a managing director of Goldman Sachs. We find Mario Draghai, who is leading the European Union response to the crisis is yet an0ther..Vice President of Goldman Sachs previously. Hank Paulson, appointed a 35-year old Goldman Sachs vice president Neel Kashkari to head the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program ('1'ARP). The Goldman Sachs power base is even on both sides of the Atlantic, and we find that the Merrill Lynch CBO John Thain was also a former co-president of Goldman Sachs and the head of Wachovia Robert Steel was a former Goldman Vice Chairman. This amazing group of political connections runs deep into the workings at the International Monetary Fund as well. The real question is; How Can a Treasury Secretary still have stock in Goldman Sachs?

25 Years in the Making

For at least the last 25 years, there has been a group of "professional" so called traders that have not really been interested in trading, but in manipulation. Perhaps it began with the Agricultural markets. Like the movie Trading Places with Eddie Murphy that centered on commodity brokers who were looking to get access to an agricultural report from Government that would move markets, there was some of that going on. But there were others who actually manipulated the inventories by moving product from one warehouse to another. Not all warehouses were within the official exchange inventory. Therefore, moving product in and out of the warehouse could manipulate markets on a short—term basis since the average traders tended to rely upon fundamental news. The advent of technical analysis was the early 1970s. It was a lost art after the 1929 collapse.
.................
 
poolman said:
Thanks Birchtree,

I have gotten stuck with my economical analysis with a bunch of other things that are going on in my life.

I have decided to back off and see what happen's.

I pop in from time to time and see what is going on.

Nothing against the MB or anyone In the MB. I'll be back full time in time.....
Click to expand...

Not sure if you've popped in; but you just cracked the top 30 on the tracker. Rest of month should be interesting. This will take some guts for both bears and bulls.
 
I look forward to your incites poolman tsp #1, the way Burchtree post, you would believe he was #1, him and ferdtheturd, I guess he didn’t see the two ZEROS behind his #1..00 on tsp.:nuts:
 
I was and am flabber gasted with this last rally to 8500 in the dow. I have to say it was a nice rally in a Bear Market and I missed all but maybe 3% of it. Normally I would have caught more of this Rally BUT we are not in normal times and I would have never thought there would be so much Goverment Injection. I think it is Foul Play and is ruining this country. It is very hard knowing what to do because you never know when Obama or Geitner will be on t.v. pumping and propping the markets.
But this can only go on for so long before the house of cards collapses.

As of now I am watching the S&P 875 level to see if it gets violated or not. Also I think it is a good time to be in the G - Fund. The Trend has changed for now and I don't see a reason to be in equities. I see unemployment getting no better very quick. We are going to hear more about GM and Chrysler very soon and 1 heck of alot of layoffs.
 
poolman said:
I was and am flabber gasted with this last rally to 8500 in the dow. I have to say it was a nice rally in a Bear Market and I missed all but maybe 3% of it. Normally I would have caught more of this Rally BUT we are not in normal times and I would have never thought there would be so much Goverment Injection. I think it is Foul Play and is ruining this country. It is very hard knowing what to do because you never know when Obama or Geitner will be on t.v. pumping and propping the markets.
But this can only go on for so long before the house of cards collapses.

As of now I am watching the S&P 875 level to see if it gets violated or not. Also I think it is a good time to be in the G - Fund. The Trend has changed for now and I don't see a reason to be in equities. I see unemployment getting no better very quick. We are going to hear more about GM and Chrysler very soon and 1 heck of alot of layoffs.
Click to expand...

Hey Poolman--yes, I've missed almost all of this rally, too. And I have no idea what the markets are going to do. Nothing would surprise me now. We could keep going up to 12k-14k on the Dow or we could drop to 4,000--neither would shock me. But what I do know is, as you said, this is a house of cards.

I'm staying out simply because the rules change all the time. Mark to market changes, changes on shorting rules, TARP and all its variations, Fed and Treasury pumping, printing money, and doing all they can to inflate the next bubble--it all gets old. And I don't like playing any game when the rules are always changing.

Something like a third of all American households are within 1 or 2 paychecks of losing it all. With more jobs being lost everyday and more houses in foreclosure, how can discretionary spending (which is the driver of this economy) increase? I honestly hope I am completely wrong and the economy forms a V-shaped recovery. That would be fantastic. But I'm a realist and I just don't see it.
 
ContrarianJeff said:
Hey Poolman--yes, I've missed almost all of this rally, too. And I have no idea what the markets are going to do. Nothing would surprise me now. We could keep going up to 12k-14k on the Dow or we could drop to 4,000--neither would shock me. But what I do know is, as you said, this is a house of cards.

I'm staying out simply because the rules change all the time. Mark to market changes, changes on shorting rules, TARP and all its variations, Fed and Treasury pumping, printing money, and doing all they can to inflate the next bubble--it all gets old. And I don't like playing any game when the rules are always changing.

Something like a third of all American households are within 1 or 2 paychecks of losing it all. With more jobs being lost everyday and more houses in foreclosure, how can discretionary spending (which is the driver of this economy) increase? I honestly hope I am completely wrong and the economy forms a V-shaped recovery. That would be fantastic. But I'm a realist and I just don't see it.
Click to expand...


Jeff,

I completely agree with everything you have said and thanks for your input. I am trying to play logically but there is no logic. You never know what is going to happen and all the rules have changed. This Housing/Banking Crisis would have been the House of Cards collapsing without all the government intervention. You cannot keep printing money and injecting it into the economy without Bad results down the road.

How long can things be made to look Rosy and make people think things are getting better. Maybe some things are getting better but What is getting worse. That day is coming.
 
CJ and PM excellent analysis and insights and I am in both of your camps also. The recent bear market rally has dumbfounded me in it's percentage move and strength. I am waiting to see the S&P earnings for this last quarter but it is extremely hard to get a true handle on this. With the S&P around 900ish I think it is too rich right now based on PE but I don't know where a good entry is. Will it retest the 666 level... Probably not but I have to think a re-test will come... Anyway GL to all... DA FIREANT
 
Poolman -- reading a few of your recents posts, and it's nice to see someone else who views the current situation exactly as I do (and who is equally frustrated by the illogical movements in the market recently.)

You said this:

I am trying to play logically but there is no logic. You never know what is going to happen and all the rules have changed. This Housing/Banking Crisis would have been the House of Cards collapsing without all the government intervention. You cannot keep printing money and injecting it into the economy without Bad results down the road.

How long can things be made to look Rosy and make people think things are getting better. Maybe some things are getting better but What is getting worse. That day is coming.
Click to expand...

...and I couldn't have said it better myself. This sounds exactly like what I've been saying and thinking for weeks now -- and yet the nonsensical "green shoot" talk continues unabated. The question is, how long until "the day," as you put it, comes, and how hard do we fall? If things pan out the way I keep thinking they might, a very bearish downturn may not be the ONLY problem we have...can anyone say "government insolvency?"

Steve
 
steveg said:
Poolman -- reading a few of your recents posts, and it's nice to see someone else who views the current situation exactly as I do (and who is equally frustrated by the illogical movements in the market recently.)

You said this:



...and I couldn't have said it better myself. This sounds exactly like what I've been saying and thinking for weeks now -- and yet the nonsensical "green shoot" talk continues unabated. The question is, how long until "the day," as you put it, comes, and how hard do we fall? If things pan out the way I keep thinking they might, a very bearish downturn may not be the ONLY problem we have...can anyone say "government insolvency?"

Steve
Click to expand...


Steve,

Thank you for your input. Trouble is down the road. I don't know when exactly but it is coming.

I think we will have a significant drop in the next 6 trading days.

There has been no correction as of yet. Even the Messiah (Hitler)
cannot make the market's go straight up.

I'm sure most of you will remember this guy. I should send him a sweet check for keeping my azzz out of trouble last year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTMWq4nSfvY
 
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