Poolman's Account Talk

[coolhand]

Tomorrow could be an all day panic day pushing the Dow +300 or better. Now that would be special. Can you imagine the level of fear that would unleash.

That element is certainly working for the longs right now. My take, and I've alluded to this recently, is that all that media attention and reports from various entities starting to proclaim a new bull market and/or an easing or end to the recession is increasing. That's a psychological element that will take some time to embed itself deep within those already in the market and those wishing they were in the market. It also includes those who currently do not accept this bullish scenario (rightly or wrongly does not matter).

Now good news in and of itself is okay for the market. But as the level of acceptance and commitment rises, the risk of a deep sell-off will also rise.

Having said that, I believe the powers that be will milk this sentiment for all it's worth, and I suspect we have a ways to go yet. We may pull back enough to allow more folks on board or we may not, but I do believe we are going higher in the longer term (at least 2 months and more than likely into next year). Of course we will get some sell-offs along the way, but it probably won't be enough to kill the rising bullishness.

For the moment, it appears the longs have time and sentiment on their side.

 

[Birchtree]

I felt the urge to chase today and I'm already in up to my chin - imagine how the anxiety is building in the cash accounts. The hedge funds are coming - get us in at any price. The short hairs are in the process of covering and that will take months. Yup, the next 5 months might just be remarkable in a historical perspective.

 

[poolman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4jzxD6Wj-U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTERI6r040k

 

[poolman]

We have CPI Consumer Price Index coming out tomorrow.

Dollar is coming down again. I was not convinced early this week that the dollar was reversing course. I'm glad I stayed put where I did in the I - Fund. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-dips-further-after-retail-sales-jobs-data-2009-08-13

I have a feeling today will be a consolidation day. I feel sentiment is neutral to positive. I'm looking for 1 more solid up day.

I still have both my IFT'S for the month.

Saturday me and the Fam go on Vacation for a week. Same place as last year, Same Condo in-fact. Emerald-Isle NC. I will have my laptop with me and yes we have WI-FI. The Game doesn't stop just because of Vacation.

 

[coolhand]

I realize it's only been two days since the SS gave a sell signal, but thanks for helping me interpret that call. Each of us has various internal filters we pass information through and it's easier to interpret collectively vice individually.

Looks like a good call so far.

 

[turbo23dog]

^^ X2

 

[fedgolfer]

CH & PM,

Keep the mo' going. Great analysis and vids.

 

[poolman]

I realize it's only been two days since the SS gave a sell signal, but thanks for helping me interpret that call. Each of us has various internal filters we pass information through and it's easier to interpret collectively vice individually.

Looks like a good call so far.

Your quite Welcome Coolhand,

You and I make a good team. I think we feed off of each other. Our analysis complements each other.

I would also like to thank Turbodog and Fedgolfer. You guys are great.

We need to be careful and accurate with our tools. The markets never stop. I will be careful this time and not get burned out. That is essentially what happened to me over the last 3 months. Not this time.

This day is turning out exactly as I expected. A nice consolidation day. I hope it holds.

 

[GUCHI]

pool

r u from N.C. ??? I live her in N.C. Rocky Mount and have beeen 2
Emerald-Isle NC. beautiful beach. u and your family enjoy your vacation. good 2 know your helping to support our economy, thanks.

 

[poolman]

pool

r u from N.C. ??? I live her in N.C. Rocky Mount and have beeen 2
Emerald-Isle NC. beautiful beach. u and your family enjoy your vacation. good 2 know your helping to support our economy, thanks.

No I live in Manassas, Va

I've been to emerald-Isle every year for the last 4 years. I love it there, It's beautiful and not a real busy beach. I find it very relaxing. I have no Problem supporting the Economy in NC. I love it there.

 

[WorkFE]

Used to be some Great Fishing at Lake Gaston. Been about 5 years since I fished there.

 

[GUCHI]

WORK
still goood fishing there and the Roanoke River.

 

[poolman]

Your quite Welcome Coolhand,

You and I make a good team. I think we feed off of each other. Our analysis complements each other.

I would also like to thank Turbodog and Fedgolfer. You guys are great.

We need to be careful and accurate with our tools. The markets never stop. I will be careful this time and not get burned out. That is essentially what happened to me over the last 3 months. Not this time.

This day is turning out exactly as I expected. A nice consolidation day. I hope it holds.

We had a very nice day today. Sentiment is pretty positive now. Lot's of stock earnings still coming in positive.

Retail sales #'s came in weak this morning but for the most part the market has shrugged that off.

Before you know it all we will hear is CPI.. Let's hope that # comes in good. Up Up and Away..............:laugh:

 

[poolman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pERST1zxRvA

 

[poolman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDtnJRoQWSw

 

[poolman]

Hindsight is Forsight. We got lucky today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wb_ndgUoLpA

 

[poolman]

Well it appears that yesterday's gains along with part of Wednesday's gains are disappearing at this point in the day.

Consumer sentiment came in disappointing today.

I figure we probably won't see what losses we have today until next week the 18'Th with Building permits and Housing starts. These numbers will probably come in good.

I have made a IFT to 100% - S Fund today. I am trying to set myself up for a good exit.

 

[coolhand]

Well it appears that yesterday's gains along with part of Wednesday's gains are disappearing at this point in the day.

Consumer sentiment came in disappointing today.

I figure we probably won't see what losses we have today until next week the 18'Th with Building permits and Housing starts. These numbers will probably come in good.

I have made a IFT to 100% - S Fund today. I am trying to set myself up for a good exit.

A tricky market indeed. Too early to say what this selling pressure means as it's just one day, but volume may be telling. The dip buyers are still out there. They could turn this around this afternoon or next week. We'll see.

 

[fedgolfer]

A tricky market indeed. Too early to say what this selling pressure means as it's just one day, but volume may be telling. The dip buyers are still out there. They could turn this around this afternoon or next week. We'll see.

The lower bollinger and the mid-line (20 dma) are skyrocketing on the S&P. In a bull move, dip-buyers usually step in and support it at the mid-line. It's almost there and should provide support. I like the multiple touches of the upper bollinger and quick one touches of the the 20dma and lower bollinger... that's indicative of a bull and the current trend.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p19232943421

 

[poolman]

I'm not really worried yet. This market is tricky indeed. This market was ready for a dip. IMO consumer sentiment readings that come in like this usually don't tank the market's this much. I think you might be right and this market cuts it's losses by half eod.

I've got to run some errands this afternoon and fix a couple of things around the house. All in preparation for vacation. So I'll be in and out today.