Playing the I fund

[Wimpy]

While the chasm was clearly widening prior to this latest pullback it may well be narrowing now. The decline in the I fund is about 7 1/2 % (more like 9% after today), while the C fund is down about 5 1/2 %.

Dave
<><

The operative word here is 'overall' rises and declines as I stated originally. Go back to the official TSP website and find the line where all the funds were at or very close to $10.00 a share and then observe what happens over the next few years. It doesn't get much clearer than that.

Jovarn had the right idea...step back, breathe, and go wash the car...at least if you're in the I-Fund. If you are in any of the other funds...you're SOL, IMVHO.

 

[Griffin]

Wimpy,

I maintain an excel spreadsheet that graphs the differences in fund prices, charts and calculates growth rates and moving averages for each fund over a 30, 60 and 120 day period and the growth rate of my account. Unfortunately it's over 1.2 MB, or I would post it. Even if I zipped it, it would be to large.

Anyway, up until, late March of this year, the I fund would peak out at about $1.50 more then the S-Fund, and would bottom out at about -$.15 before reversing. The oscillation was not regular, and the differences are slight - so I created a weighted average chart about a month ago which shows the pattern clearer.

Late March, the I-fund took off away from the S-fund and hit a peak a couple of weeks ago of almost $3.00 more a share. However, during this pullback, the gap has narrowed significantly and is back down to about $2.50 more a share. I believe this trend will continue to the advantage of the S-fund.

 

[Wimpy]

Wimpy,

I maintain an excel spreadsheet that graphs the differences in fund prices, charts and calculates growth rates and moving averages for each fund over a 30, 60 and 120 day period and the growth rate of my account. Unfortunately it's over 1.2 MB, or I would post it. Even if I zipped it, it would be to large.

Anyway, up until, late March of this year, the I fund would peak out at about $1.50 more then the S-Fund, and would bottom out at about -$.15 before reversing. The oscillation was not regular, and the differences are slight - so I created a weighted average chart about a month ago which shows the pattern clearer.

Late March, the I-fund took off away from the S-fund and hit a peak a couple of weeks ago of almost $3.00 more a share. However, during this pullback, the gap has narrowed significantly and is back down to about $2.50 more a share. I believe this trend will continue to the advantage of the S-fund.

We've obviously come to differing conclusions after reviewing the same data. That is what makes markets. Appreciate your viewpoint!

 

[Wimpy]

The only bad thing on the U.S. side, is many (like myself) have elected to save the USD. From a personal level... it sucks to see what has become of our economy, and our savings accounts. Who do we thank for all this?

I understand where you are coming from. There is a time, however, to quit bailing water and man the lifeboats. The U.S.S. Dollar is taking on water fast. Ignore the music in the ballroom (Media cheerleaders) and those reshuffling the chairs on the deck (Fed Jawboning) and man a lifeboat (gold/silver).

Trying to save the dollar, on a personal level, would be a little like balancing yourself on a ledge 36 stories up and reaching out to save a 300 pound man bent on committing suicide. Forgiddaboutit!

You ask, "Who do we thank for all this?" Pseudo democracy!

 

[Griffin]

We've obviously come to differing conclusions after reviewing the same data. That is what makes markets. Appreciate your viewpoint!

That is what makes this site so great. It's like having someone proof read your work.

One other nugget for thought. The S-Fund is the only fund to ever be the top performing fund three months in a row. It has done this three times in the past 5 year (twice in 2001 and once in 2005). The I fund has hadonly one three month winning streak (in 2002) and it was the best performer in April, and I am fairly certain it will be the best performer for May - so going into June? What are the odds?

 

[EW_ret]

MSCI EAFE is reported -1.269% today. Time to buy?

 

[Wheels]

at least if you're in the I-Fund. If you are in any of the other funds...you're SOL, IMVHO.

I've been in the G all this month, I'd hardly call that SOL.

Dave
<><

 

[Wheels]

That is what makes this site so great. It's like having someone proof read your work.

Agreed. I liked what you posted about the S leading the way out of many of these corrections. When I jump back in I'm thinking it will be into the S, initially at least.

Dave
<><

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Agreed. I liked what you posted about the S leading the way out of many of these corrections. When I jump back in I'm thinking it will be into the S, initially at least.

Dave
<><

S leads up to a greater gain and it leads down to a greater loss vs. the C fund at least.

 

[Wimpy]

I've been in the G all this month, I'd hardly call that SOL.

Dave
<><

You bought dollars...I sold dollars. Nice doin' business with ya!

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Since May 1, G = +.035%, I = -.448%, granted can be turned around in a day..but probably not TO DAY

 

[sugarandspice]

MSCI EAFE is reported -1.269% today. Time to buy?

That should be around -.24/.25 cents.

 

[Wheels]

Since May 1, G = +.035%, I = -.448%, granted can be turned around in a day..but probably not TO DAY

Shouldn't that read -4.48%?

Dave
<><

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Shouldn't that read -4.48%?

Dave
<><

yes, thank you, Dave..will take SEVERAL days to turn around

 

[Wimpy]

yes, thank you, Dave..will take SEVERAL days to turn around

days? u mean I can't quick turn d'baby usin' the 18 minute chart? Whatever happened to d'good old days of instant gratification?:cheesy:

 

[Griffin]

When you calculate the return for the month you have to start with the last day of the previous month, in this case April 28th.

So the return to date's for the stock funds are
C -3.98
S -5.81
I -3.87

I should have thrown a smiley face on that statement that started this, because I didn't really mean it to be a serious legitimate argument. Although, statiscally there probably is some validity to it.

Oh and I guess I should have clarified, the S fund is the only fund to have three POSITIVE back to back winning months.

 

[Wimpy]

Date G F C S I
Jun 02, 2003 10.00 9.97 10.03 10.05 10.17
Jun 02, 2004 10.41 9.91 11.87 12.95 13.20
Jun 02, 2005 10.88 10.67 12.93 14.73 15.22
May 24, 2006 11.37 10.61 13.76 16.82 19.14

 

[Wimpy]

2003 .12-.14 spread between I-Fund and S & C respectively
2004 .25-1.33 spread between I-Fund and S & C respectively
2005 .49-2.29 spread between I-Fund and S & C respectively
2006 2.32-5.38 spread between I-Fund and S & C respectively

Looking strictly at the price comparisons, a logical argument would make the I-fund out to be overvalued and some of the lagging funds the best buy. Looking at the fundamentals, however, suggests that what has driven the I-Fund to such stellar performance is STILL in play. In other words, the dumpster dollar is still trending down.

Black box momentum and volitility is going to whipsaw the heck outta day traders trying to catch every little dollar bounce. Double the drag with TSP trading lag times.

Never been to a horse race in my life, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out which horse is in the lead...and it doesn't look like he's limping too bad compared to the rest of the slugs on the field.

 

[Wimpy]

I could've included the G and F funds in the comparison, but they were so far back in the race my binoculators couldn't see 'em. :cheesy:

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

days? u mean I can't quick turn d'baby usin' the 18 minute chart? Whatever happened to d'good old days of instant gratification?:cheesy:

not 18 minute, but 3 day ema trend has been working pretty good, or slow stochs...5 minute chart of s&p futures can provide some pretty quick gratification. Now selling naked puts/naked calls on ..oh i dunno..silver last month, can get ya a nice ambo ride...thanks for that derivatives post, btw...had me reachin for my medication