Pill's Account Talk

[Bullitt]

One way I know I am doing OK by being a buy and hold investor is what shares I have accumulated in the previous 5 years, I just doubled in one year by increasing my contributions during this down turn.

You've got balls admitting that Mr. Pill. Not too many people believe in the buy and hold strategy these days. I'm not saying that's a bad thing either.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

isn't this 'more shares' thing kinda like sayin ' I had 10 100 dollar bills ($1,000), but now I have 5 times more(50) 10 dollar bills ($500)' ??

 

[Pill]

With the current shares prices that is correct, sir. But we all know what the market does after a bear market. It goes up and up and before you know it we are at a new market high! So this means my account will have not only doubled but will be even greater because I have been buying all the way up just like I did all the way down.

The fact that I have been collecting share prices below what they were when I started as a civilian in 2003 makes me very happy.

Of course this isn't a sweet scenario for someone who is looking to retire in the next few years.

I don't know how to compare DCA(dollar cost average) vs. 2IFT's(2 inter-fund transfers)buy low sell high folks but I am pretty certain my method will hands down win over say a 30 year career. (With exception to pro’s (Ebb, Trader Fred) But to the average federal civilian I feel I would win. It’s up for debate but this is my chosen method at the time as long as I keep my emotions out of it and stick to the plan. I believe DCA is safer and more productive!

I hope every ones plan works in there favor! Now lets make some money$

 

[Pill]

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/DCAvsVA.asp

 

[Birchtree]

I must tell you that I dollar cost averaged my way into our last bottom in November to the tune of $500K or more making 432 individual stock purchases. Those were generational low prices and I went for the chalice. In the last seven weeks counting week #7 as a correction week I've made $363K - and I've never made green like that. And I suspect the next six weeks will be just as rewarding. And soon I'll be buying all the way back up. Those unfortunate fools that cut and ran while we were placing the bottom are now being punished - they have no assets working for them. It's a lot like sitting on the ice pack in the G fund - your butt might be comfortable but it ain't making no money.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Tried and true performance measure is annual percentage return on principal. Anything else is smoke, mirrors, and noise.

 

[Birchtree]

Eight more months my friend will tell the story.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Eight more months my friend will tell the story.

Obviously, a good chance you will do well this year, but what will your two year performance be?

 

[Birchtree]

I have yet to lock a loss so it's hard to tell - riding the old come back trail again only with more DCA shares to lift my spirits. So the inter year swings don't really bother me - it's the constant accumulation of shares that keeps me honest. I do believe now that the trend may be changing that I'll be ready for a little swing trading. You won't mind if I follow your lead you handsome guy - but you got to get off the ice block first.

 

[Pill]

It feels good to be green again! 10%

I can't wait to see my account balance when we reach the highs again. I don't really have a prediction when that might happen however as history proves it will(could be extremely fast or even take years). I will be buying all the way up! Even down if the market so chooses.

We may get a small pull back but I don't believe it will be more than 10%. So I should remain in green for the rest of the year.

 

[Boghie]

It feels good to be green again! 10%

I can't wait to see my account balance when we reach the highs again. I don't really have a prediction when that might happen however as history proves it will(could be extremely fast or even take years). I will be buying all the way up! Even down if the market so chooses.

We may get a small pull back but I don't believe it will be more than 10%. So I should remain in green for the rest of the year.

Glad to see you active again. You are one of the folks I picked to watch last year. Not too many trades, and those trades seemed sensible.

Anyway, what does Birch mean by 'swing trades'???

 

[Pill]

Boghie-

Swing trades are normally short term trades of in and out, within say 5-10 day period. It’s now pretty hard to do in our tsp accounts as you can only do it once a month, but technically I guess you could call it a swing trade.

I learned a few things last year and although some of my moves paid off, some did not. Personally I still may make some moves for an extra gain, but I believe there is more of a risk in doing so. I am certain for me, that if I stayed put for 10 years on one account and the other made some moves, my staying put account would win hands down.

Sticking to the plan is always hard! Good luck this year.

 

[Boghie]

Boghie-

Swing trades are normally short term trades of in and out, within say 5-10 day period. It’s now pretty hard to do in our tsp accounts as you can only do it once a month, but technically I guess you could call it a swing trade.

I learned a few things last year and although some of my moves paid off, some did not. Personally I still may make some moves for an extra gain, but I believe there is more of a risk in doing so. I am certain for me, that if I stayed put for 10 years on one account and the other made some moves, my staying put account would win hands down.

Sticking to the plan is always hard! Good luck this year.

Thanks Pill,

I don't know if absolutely 'staying pat' is the best strategy. A proper asset allocation is probably the most important long term strategy there is. Especially if the allocation is properly maintained. For example, the past 18 months would overbalance holdings to cash and bonds. However, rebalancing montly via one IFT would have gained you shares in the stock funds that will be quite juicy on recovery.

However, I think three allocations might be better.
The Good,
the Bad,
and the Ugly.

Saved my bullocks last year. Probably made too many trades myself thinking I could time the market. I was kinda in the market (Bad) when it collapsed. Got out, but my -5% for the year went to -14% in a heartbeat. Still only lost 20%. Yea!!!

 

[Pill]

Well I am staying put! Or like what I love to say at the table- I'm All In!

I appreciate everyone’s knowledge, I love reading and following along. However, I have too long to go to be protecting any gains.

Rain or shine!

 

[Bullitt]

Birch might challenge you to a game of who can hold on longer.

 

[Boghie]

Pill, You Broke into the Backfield...

Pill,

Congrats, you broke into the 9 I backfield. There are actually only 7 I's now. I don't know where the other one went.

Again, congrats.

 

[kar_crazy]

pull out your sooner flag and fly it proudly this weekend Phil , even if they end up kicking our behinds:blink:

 

[Pill]

My Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the 12 months ending 11/30/2009 is 36.83%.

Not bad for not a single trade.

However, I did take a hit when the market plunged, but I increase my contributions by 7% during the plunge so it worked out nicely for me. And I will do it again if given the oppertunity. I can contribute about $190 a paycheck before I max out at $16,500.

Bring on the Santa Rally!

 

[Handballer]

My Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the 12 months ending 11/30/2009 is 36.83%.

Not bad for not a single trade.

However, I did take a hit when the market plunged, but I increase my contributions by 7% during the plunge so it worked out nicely for me. And I will do it again if given the oppertunity. I can contribute about $190 a paycheck before I max out at $16,500.

Bring on the Santa Rally!

Not bad at all. But you are only about 30% more than me. Since I retired I can't contribute any more. I hope to finish the year up 7%, more will be appreciated. I'm ready for the rally too!

 

[Bullitt]

Nice work maxing out TSP, your experience should be a lesson to newbies who think they are going to find (or think they've already found) the holy grail to investing. A friend of mine told me today actually that he's less than 10% below his all time high with a DCA approach.

I used to max out TSP, but I contribute to a Roth IRA now.