P&F Chart School

[JTH]

Thanks James, 1015 is a solid number and great bullish objective.

 

[JTH]

Tsk tsk

1015 PO one minute, 825 Double Bottom Breakdown the next...

View attachment 6534

 

[James48843]

Bummer.

It didn't pop downward until after the noon cutoff. Will be watching in the morning. If it holds- it will be a sell tomorrow. However, I am on the road traveling and won't be able to make the move in the auto tracker. If it goes up tomorrow, then I would hold until an exit point over the next couple days and bail then. Again, in TDY status, so no joy on the markets in the next couple days.

 

[JTH]

Hope you're not gone for too long James

New Price Objective 805 :worried:

View attachment 6556

 

[James48843]

And here we go again.

A Double Top breakout yesterday. New bullish price objective is 1085. That would be a welcome number to those who have suffered lately.


Here is the chart:

View attachment 6574

I have a feeling we'll slide back down around 890 to 910 range on the next down cycle, giving another buying opportunity to those sitting on the sidelines. That would retrace and build a nice foundation if this 1085 forecast is correct. Not sure if that will actually happen, but past performance sometimes CAN be an indicator of potential future results.

But the chart is clear today anyway- the chart says- higher moves ahead.

Good luck.


​

 

[wv-girl]

And here we go again.

A Double Top breakout yesterday. New bullish price objective is 1085. That would be a welcome number to those who have suffered lately.

I have a feeling we'll slide back down around 890 to 910 range on the next down cycle, giving another buying opportunity to those sitting on the sidelines. That would retrace and build a nice foundation if this 1085 forecast is correct. Not sure if that will actually happen, but past performance sometimes CAN be an indicator of potential future results.​

But the chart is clear today anyway- the chart says- higher moves ahead.​

Good luck.​

I hope you are right. I'd for one would like the opportunity. Hope I didn't just jinx it.

 

[mdszj]

Hello all,

I have been looking for daily numerical totals of buy and sell pnf signals with not too much success. Looks like stockcharts does not have them, or at least I cant find them. Does anybody here know where I might be able to get pnf buy signals totals? I want to try comparing daily trends and compare it to mkt performance.

thx

 

[James48843]

Now showing 1115 as the bullish price objective on the P&F chart.

My guess is that we've about run this cycle, and should get a pullback below 920 shortly, but then continue to head north again to above the present level.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

 

[James48843]

Well, well, well.

We're now up 22 units on this upswing, and officially into a "long tail up" mode. The good news is that the bullish price objective is now raised to 1190- lots of momentum carried us higher. The good news also is that there are now a number of points that would create resistance, should we begin to fall back from here. Many, many resistance points built in that weren't there before. I'll take it.

Here is the chart this morning:

View attachment 6591

Now, with a 22 unit long tail up raise, I am thinking "We've GOT to have a reversal here". 22 units is about the most we've seen in any of these cycles over the last year, so I am thinking we MAY get one or two more units, and then pause. So I am seriously considering moving to the sidelines today and taking a breather for a bit.

But then again, you never know. This rally doesn't make that much sense- there is still a LOT of pain out there- unemployment continues to rise, and this week, my bank capped out the home equity line of credit I had. Banks tightening up all the way around on credit lines -and I am still expecting fallout in the credit card/home equity market, just like we've had fallout in home loans. The credit card crush hasn't hit the markets yet, nor has the fact that the minimum wage rise kicks in this week in 30 states that had lower than the new federal minimum wage.

Be careful out there!

Good luck.
​

 

[luv2read]

pin that tail on the Donkey....their "economic strategy" is working..the stimulus funds are about to enter the economy. Have to spend it to make it.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

pin that tail on the Donkey....their "economic strategy" is working..the stimulus funds are about to enter the economy. Have to spend it to make it.

I respectfully disagree. I think they are simply propping up a house of cards that will one day crash hard. Our great grandchildren will have to pay for the mistakes of today.

While the axiom that one must spend money to make money may work for the private sector, it doesn't work so well in the government sector, where the government makes (prints) money in order to spend it.

 

[mick504]

I also disagree...things like trading older cars for newer cars as only one example, does nothing. There are useful ways to spend money...not in the current Administrations venue though! I truly believe we are in a buildup....using foam rubber instead of cement. We are building up for a fall. My opinion only!

 

[James48843]

Finally- the trend is broken.

Here is today's opening chart.

Could be an interesting week.

View attachment 6680
​

There is a lot of support below here, so I wouldn't expect it to fall a great deal. However, there is now a break in the updraft. Perhaps a couple of days here. We'll just have to wait and see.

​

 

[JTH]

Thanks James, do you have any idea what price level we have to reach in order to see a BEARISH price objective?

 

[James48843]

Upswing today is very solid- giving us a double top breakout.

The retracement over the last few days has given us a great base upon which to build, and a solid foundation for another large upward swing.

Here is the chart this morning- showing the double top breakout, and a new green "X", higher that the previous cycle high. The estimate is now showing 1295 is the bullish objective likely ahead.

View attachment 6695​

Good luck.​

 

[JTH]

Knock knock, anyone home?

View attachment 6791

 

[James48843]

OK. Yah, sure. An update on the chart.

Well, as you point out, the P&F chart continues to show incredible strength. WE got a triple top breakout ascending this week- a sign that there will continue to be momentum (the big MO) for some time to come. Every time we begin to slip back a bit, buyers seem to come in to try to buy on the dips- and that bolsters everything and we keep going.

As forecasted some time ago, we're still looking at a bullish price objective of 1295. Now, I see that we gained fewer units in the last upswing cycle, compared to the cycle before. But the 7 "X" uptick still was nice, followed by a four unit "O". Then a five unit "X" up, then a three unit "O" down. Nice. Regular cycles.

I think while we might have some slip back from here, it really seems to be keeping with past practice- in that we get a slightly higher number of units up, then fewer units down. Five units up, and three units down. etc. That gives us the possibility to try and hit one of those swing cycles this month. Not sure just yet, but we could be set up nice for that now.

We're not quite at a "breakdown" point yet as these cycles get narrower here- I think we MAY see one or two down days this week - just because we're overdue. But there is no action or event that I see on the horizon today that will break the cycle horribly. So, for now, I continue to watch, and look for a nice point to bail and perhaps capture a 1 or 2% wave over a day or two. Could be setting up soon for something like that.

Anyway- here's the chart today:

View attachment 6792

Enjoy. No panic in sight anywhere today. We'll play it by ear on Monday.

Good luck.
​

 

[tsptalk]

So, for now, I continue to watch, and look for a nice point to bail and perhaps capture a 1 or 2% wave over a day or two. Could be setting up soon for something like that.

Seasonality hasn't been a good indicator lately, but with this coming week being an options expiration week, perhaps Friday would be a good time to sell. They indices could be propped until next Monday.

That said, the signs say we should stay bullish. It is just getting a little nerve wracking. I'm still in, but call me scared / weak money at this point.

 

[JTH]

OK. Yah, sure. An update on the chart.

Thanks for the update, I always enjoy your analysis on these fascinating P&F charts!

 

[James48843]

Thanks for the update, I always enjoy your analysis on these fascinating P&F charts!

Sorry- I have been a bit distracted down in the politics thread.


No major changes on the P&F, so I just let it ride for a while.

If something major changes, I'll post something here. If not, I'm just looking for a nice place over the very near term to try and clip a percent somewhere. Like selling on a high day, and buying back in a day or two later at a lower level. Everything seems to be riding the momentum these days, so I don't see a major downturn on the horizon right now. Maybe in a month or two, we'll see something different. For now, it seems to be onward and upward.

As they say, sit down, buckle up, and hang on, because this could be a wild ride.