P&F Chart School

[James48843]

That double-bottom breakdown and sell signal in the P&F chart back on September 26 appears to be pretty significantly consistent.

It looks good today, at least.

And we have had some adjustments in the bearish targets as well in the last week or so.

Now the bearish price objective - meaning the place at which the chart is predicting we'll find solid ground again, is now down to 1840. What that means is the P&F chart is saying we still have a ways downward to go.

Here is this morning's data:



Not sure exactly where we go from here- but the P&F Chart for the S&P 500 is telling us to stay on the sidelines for a while longer.

Your mileage may vary. This is not advice- this is only charting. You decide what you want to do. Don't listen to me.

Have a great day, and good luck.

 

[craigerv]

It looks like there are some x's and o's near 1900 and a little below. That looks like a reasonable target for resistance. I'm hoping to get down that far to get back into the S Fund.

 

[Frixxxx]

Thanks James, this chart is ALWAYS helpful!

 

[James48843]

Just an FYI- the "S" fund's P&F Chart, as represented here by the Wilshire 4500, just broke through and is indicating a major down trend with "Triple Bottom Breakdown" this morning- and showing a bearish price objective in the 880 range. This is indicative of a significant downward motion ahead.

If I was waiting to jump back into stocks, I would be hesitent here.

 

[James48843]

Just an update- the S&P 500 P&F chart continues to indicate a further drop is expected before we get resistance.

I expect it to hit the 1840 mark as indicated here in the next few days. That is the "Bearish price objective", and the point we can expect to reach soon.

Note- Remember- that does't mean we won't blow PAST the bearish price objective- that is always possible, but I am thinking that it is a 75% chance or greater that we'll hit the bearish price objective of 1840 soon.

 

[James48843]

OK Folks- looks like this morning's downward thrust pushed down and crossed the BEARISH PRICE OBJECTIVE.

That's the 1840 level on the S&P 500 that we were looking at.

According to the chart, we've hit that now, and I would NOT be surprised if, over the next day or two, we retest that number, but then I also think we'll see some significant support right around this 1830-1840 level. The P&F Chart is saying we're going to bump up against that blue line as well. If that holds, then the bloodshed may be about over.

Here:


Let's see what the next day or two brings before reassesing.

Note: The "S" fund chart is still saying there is further downward to go on the "S",- but the "C" fund chart here is showing we may have made it almost to the hard point.

Enjoy.

Remember- - this is not advice. Do what your heart says, and what your stomach can handle- and live with the result.

Good luck.

 

[weatherweenie]

Just an update- the S&P 500 P&F chart continues to indicate a further drop is expected before we get resistance.

I expect it to hit the 1840 mark as indicated here in the next few days. That is the "Bearish price objective", and the point we can expect to reach soon.

1840 was hit intraday, today.

 

[Frixxxx]

1840 was hit intraday, today.

And bounced hard.......I think it went there too quickly.....I need to see if this was just a test or a rush to set the bottom.

 

[weatherweenie]

And bounced hard.......I think it went there too quickly.....I need to see if this was just a test or a rush to set the bottom.

Goin down again.

 

[JTH]

OK Folks- looks like this morning's downward thrust pushed down and crossed the BEARISH PRICE OBJECTIVE.

That's the 1840 level on the S&P 500 that we were looking at.

According to the chart, we've hit that now, and I would NOT be surprised if, over the next day or two, we retest that number, but then I also think we'll see some significant support right around this 1830-1840 level. The P&F Chart is saying we're going to bump up against that blue line as well. If that holds, then the bloodshed may be about over.

Here:

Let's see what the next day or two brings before reassesing.

Note: The "S" fund chart is still saying there is further downward to go on the "S",- but the "C" fund chart here is showing we may have made it almost to the hard point.

Enjoy.

Remember- - this is not advice. Do what your heart says, and what your stomach can handle- and live with the result.

Good luck.

Thanks James, if you don't mind, I'd like to post the weekly view for everyone.

Folks, please don't be alarmed by the weekly 1660 price objective, longer timeframes have longer price objectives, just as shorter timeframes have shorter price objectives.

What I believe it's important to understand is that on the long-term weekly scale, we have a higher high and lower low, therefore the trend is broken & undefined. At this time, I think it is acceptable to look for the next higher wave to be lower, once it's followed up with a lower low, the downtrend has been established.

On the way up, we have price congestion from 1880-1900, I count 5 Xs over 3 months in this zone.

On the way down, we've already busted below 3 previous lows and have minor support at 1820. I'm watching 1740, it's the 2014 low, if it doesn't get defended, then it would be a concern. IMHO, until new 52-week highs are made, capital preservation/raising cash should be a key component of your survival plan.

View attachment 30664
View attachment 30665

 

[James48843]

P&F chart this morning before the open?

Perfect symmetry. Grace. Beauty.





By the way- thanks JTH- nice to see that chart up there too.

personally, I think that longer term chart may or may not reach down that far. I think nearer term we've just about finished the fall. But we need to see it steady around this level now if that is correct.

P.S.- "S" fund chart still looking weak. But the "C" fund chart is a picture perfect thing of grace and beauty this morning before the open.

Enjoy.

Good luck!

 

[James48843]

note-

P&f chart just moved to a double top breakout.

I am am traveling this week, so I can't post the chart- but it moves to
a new bullish price objective above 2200.

So the P&F system will slide back in today- If I can get the trade to work from
my cellphone. Moving to buy back in to the c fund.

Good luck.

 

[bmneveu]

Looks like you nailed this one. Great job!

View attachment 30683

I think nearer term we've just about finished the fall.

 

[Minnow]

Here's a shot off of stockcharts for the SPX P&F chart:

$SPX - Graphical P&F - Charting Tools - StockCharts.com=

 

[JTH]

Wrapping bollinger bands around the Daily PnF shows median price to be at 1930, the same area of a previous double bottom. A long tail down should get triggered around 1950, but a reversal won't get triggered till 1820 (roughly an 11% decline from current levels)

View attachment 31524

 

[nnuut]

Bogga Bogga!

 

[James48843]

I concur JTH- Everything I am seeing here is telling me the S&P 500 is on it's way down to around 1950, where there is a harder floor, and then then is another resistance point about 1900-1910. I think that we are around a 50% chance of hitting 1910, and then a 20% chance of falling below 1900. Yes, it is possible, but not likely to go below that, if the P&F chart this afternoon is correct.

We'll see how it pans out. I am out right now, but will be looking for a good entry point to get in if we dip to 1920 or less.

 

[alevin]

I concur JTH- Everything I am seeing here is telling me the S&P 500 is on it's way down to around 1950, where there is a harder floor, and then then is another resistance point about 1900-1910. I think that we are around a 50% chance of hitting 1910, and then a 20% chance of falling below 1900. Yes, it is possible, but not likely to go below that, if the P&F chart this afternoon is correct.

We'll see how it pans out. I am out right now, but will be looking for a good entry point to get in if we dip to 1920 or less.

View attachment 31550

I may just take a shot if we get down below 1920. There's a gap on the daily chart between 1905 and 1909 that needs to be filled. Then again, my favorite DeMark indicator guru says market close today below 2002.39 means market goes longterm neutral, intermediate/longterm bearish, so I may just sit and watch for awhile longer after that even. Trade Trekker

 

[JTH]

View attachment 31738

 

[James48843]

Note: chart flipped today.

Will be posting later tonight- P&F going to safety of "G".