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P&F Chart School
- Thread starter James48843
- Start date
James48843
Well-known member
We opened at 972 this morning- crossing below the predicted 990 level.
that is a techincal signal on the P&F to buy for an expected bounce back up.
That's one identifier- corrsing the projected point.
Here is a second identifier- Rate cut. Coordianted among multiple countries. Means they mean business.
That's a send reason to move.
Here is the chart:
that is a techincal signal on the P&F to buy for an expected bounce back up.
That's one identifier- corrsing the projected point.
Here is a second identifier- Rate cut. Coordianted among multiple countries. Means they mean business.
That's a send reason to move.
Here is the chart:
I will be moving the "mock" P&F chart account in autotracker into a BUY mode this morning.
I still don't know if I am bold enough to do it with my real money- but I am seriously thinking that right now.
Best of luck.
I still don't know if I am bold enough to do it with my real money- but I am seriously thinking that right now.
Best of luck.
Silverbird
Well-known member
Here be Dragons.
James48843
Well-known member
I'm going to post this here for me to comment on later.
We tested the low of 970 three times today, and it held. Plus, our VIX hit 59 today. Plus, we met the P&F chart forecasted objective.
With those three items done, I took the plunge before noon today and went 100% C.
Reading the P&F chart, it MAY be too early. We didn't get the rebound yet for the signal I was looking for , but these noon deadlines make it difficult to make a call, and then have to wait till four p.m. to see what the rest of the day brings.
Anyway- I'm posting this here now, so that I can have some discussion about it tonight after the market closes.
We tested the low of 970 three times today, and it held. Plus, our VIX hit 59 today. Plus, we met the P&F chart forecasted objective.
With those three items done, I took the plunge before noon today and went 100% C.
Reading the P&F chart, it MAY be too early. We didn't get the rebound yet for the signal I was looking for , but these noon deadlines make it difficult to make a call, and then have to wait till four p.m. to see what the rest of the day brings.
Anyway- I'm posting this here now, so that I can have some discussion about it tonight after the market closes.
From chart school- it's called the "Long tail".
More tonight.
More tonight.
James48843
Well-known member
James48843
Well-known member
OK- back to chart school:
Today we dipped down to the 970 level three times. And each time it held.
That is significant because I have been watching both the volume, which was heavier today, and the length of descent. We're now at the 21st square down in this downward cycle. Anything over 20 is officially called a LONG TAIL down.
Now, usually (if there is such a thing as "usually" in times like these), a long-tail down only goes a few more than 20. The last long tail down, the 1420 down to 1210, lasted 23 squares, and then immediately bounced 8 squares up before beginning to drop again.
I am sure we're in a continued BEAR market for a while. But with the FED doing the co-ordinated rate cut, the 700 billion bill passing, and everything else going on, we've been down an awful lot without getting any breather here.
Today, this morning, I saw that first and second test of the 970 limit before noon. Volume spiked when it hit there- telling me there is some appetite by someone with money out there to buy on the dip. And sure enough, after lunch, we started to get some upward drift. Finally, something that WASN'T STRAIGHT DOWN. And we've been six days in a row down.
Now, if you read the "STOCKCHARTS CHART SCHOOL" (graphic from http://stockcharts.com - I highly recommend them as a great place to learn).,
a long tail is always followed by a blip up at some point in time. We've descended down past the price objective, so this is a good time to start looking.
Now- about that 990 price objective-
We met that today. And, in P&F charting, that's all the message that we will get. It COULD go far below that target price. Or not. Either way, the chart will say "TARGET MET", which is now does.
We'll break out of that when we get a postive three "X"s formed higher. today, we ALMOST had that. If we would have finsihed were we were around 3 pm today, we would have had that reversal appear. But we didn't finish there.
the indications are to me, then, as I read the chart, that we MAY get another two or three squares down before the reversal happens. I actually think the odds right now are that we'll get a rebound tomorrow. When the rebound happens, I think it will be quick and hard up, but only about 8 squares up from the bottom, maybe nine. That will put it in the 1020-1030 area.
So I am in tonight, watching for a 8 or 9 square pop up. If it comes tomorrow, I may get out tomorrow, and sit in "G" for the rest of the month.
Long term we're in a down cycle. But short term we're due for a pop. Even if we DO go, say , five or six more down squares ( which I feel is now much more UNLIKELY due to rate cut today), then when the pop of 8 or 9 comes, then we'll STILL be positive from where we are today, and it will be an exit opporunity higher than now.
Of course, if this IS 1929, we're toast anyway. Very fatalistic.
I have at LEAST 12 more year till retirement, so I'm playing my impression of the odds on this one. If the pop up comes, I'm more than likely getting out and holding until things settle down, or until next month, when we get fresh "2 moves" and an election to go through.
Note the comment at the bottom of the "Chart School" graphic. It says "A long tail ...The first reversal is a good trading opporuntiy, but the steep drop should give the buyer pause".
That's exactly how I feel tonight. I was thinking, when I pulled the trigger at noon today, that we were likely to get the reversal by COB today. We didn't quite get it, but almost did.
It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
that's all for tonight. Japan is now open. And up 1.1% tonight. I think that is how tomorrow will open in New York as well. We'll have to wait and see.
Today we dipped down to the 970 level three times. And each time it held.
That is significant because I have been watching both the volume, which was heavier today, and the length of descent. We're now at the 21st square down in this downward cycle. Anything over 20 is officially called a LONG TAIL down.
Now, usually (if there is such a thing as "usually" in times like these), a long-tail down only goes a few more than 20. The last long tail down, the 1420 down to 1210, lasted 23 squares, and then immediately bounced 8 squares up before beginning to drop again.
I am sure we're in a continued BEAR market for a while. But with the FED doing the co-ordinated rate cut, the 700 billion bill passing, and everything else going on, we've been down an awful lot without getting any breather here.
Today, this morning, I saw that first and second test of the 970 limit before noon. Volume spiked when it hit there- telling me there is some appetite by someone with money out there to buy on the dip. And sure enough, after lunch, we started to get some upward drift. Finally, something that WASN'T STRAIGHT DOWN. And we've been six days in a row down.
Now, if you read the "STOCKCHARTS CHART SCHOOL" (graphic from http://stockcharts.com - I highly recommend them as a great place to learn).,
a long tail is always followed by a blip up at some point in time. We've descended down past the price objective, so this is a good time to start looking.
Now- about that 990 price objective-
We met that today. And, in P&F charting, that's all the message that we will get. It COULD go far below that target price. Or not. Either way, the chart will say "TARGET MET", which is now does.
We'll break out of that when we get a postive three "X"s formed higher. today, we ALMOST had that. If we would have finsihed were we were around 3 pm today, we would have had that reversal appear. But we didn't finish there.
the indications are to me, then, as I read the chart, that we MAY get another two or three squares down before the reversal happens. I actually think the odds right now are that we'll get a rebound tomorrow. When the rebound happens, I think it will be quick and hard up, but only about 8 squares up from the bottom, maybe nine. That will put it in the 1020-1030 area.
So I am in tonight, watching for a 8 or 9 square pop up. If it comes tomorrow, I may get out tomorrow, and sit in "G" for the rest of the month.
Long term we're in a down cycle. But short term we're due for a pop. Even if we DO go, say , five or six more down squares ( which I feel is now much more UNLIKELY due to rate cut today), then when the pop of 8 or 9 comes, then we'll STILL be positive from where we are today, and it will be an exit opporunity higher than now.
Of course, if this IS 1929, we're toast anyway. Very fatalistic.
I have at LEAST 12 more year till retirement, so I'm playing my impression of the odds on this one. If the pop up comes, I'm more than likely getting out and holding until things settle down, or until next month, when we get fresh "2 moves" and an election to go through.
Note the comment at the bottom of the "Chart School" graphic. It says "A long tail ...The first reversal is a good trading opporuntiy, but the steep drop should give the buyer pause".
That's exactly how I feel tonight. I was thinking, when I pulled the trigger at noon today, that we were likely to get the reversal by COB today. We didn't quite get it, but almost did.
It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.
that's all for tonight. Japan is now open. And up 1.1% tonight. I think that is how tomorrow will open in New York as well. We'll have to wait and see.
James,
I decided to copy this post because I mentioned you by name this morning and believe it is proper to make sure you see it. Thanks for the fine work you are doing.
Re: Squalebear's Account Talk
Squalebear,
Correct me if I am wrong, but judging by the time you posted this message, I am assuming that you and I have beeen watching the interesting interviews on CNBC's European Power Lunch.
I would like anyone else who might want to do so to opine as to the potential short-term bounce. In fact, I want to be corrected if I misinterpreted the information.
James, I am thinking of you also because you have made excellent analyses in your P&F Chart thread. Linking your thoughts to todays events, we might be looking at further confirmation of the development of the possible bounce.
Right now, I am fully committed 100% between the C and S funds, as many others in this board are. The temptation to go to cash (G fund) has been great. However, I am trying to recover some of my losses if a bounce is to occur. Although there are no guarantees of a bounce happening, I will be losing more money yet, if this fails. In this case dollar cost averaging (purchasing more shares) would seem to be the solution with the expectation of rising prices eventually.
This morning, a technical analyst on CNBC stated his opinion that we are about to get a short-term bounce, but that he expects to see the markets drop again around the 22nd of October. Two other female analyst considered the global events in Italy, Europe, the U.S., and Asia. Central bankers and financial authorities are decidedly bent on not allowing any more bank failures, and apparently this "baby step", is a good start before the investors regain confidence in the markets. The analysts opined that they expect a bounce in these extremely oversold markets. But they expect another drop when the reality of lower earnings expectations sets in and investors understand that slower economic growth will linger for some time to come. However, their analysis is consistent with the technical analysis of the first guest that was interviewed on CNBC. In addition, all of this supports James technical analysis of the SPX P&F Chart, regarding the "TARGET MET", as well as the behavior of the SPX successfully testing the 970 level. Furthermore, Wall Street apparently likes the actions taken to stabilize the financial markets, and cash futures remain persuasively positive.
Pardon me for extending myself here. I guess I have relieved some of the tension I have built up. Best wishes to all!
I decided to copy this post because I mentioned you by name this morning and believe it is proper to make sure you see it. Thanks for the fine work you are doing.
Squalebear,
Correct me if I am wrong, but judging by the time you posted this message, I am assuming that you and I have beeen watching the interesting interviews on CNBC's European Power Lunch.
I would like anyone else who might want to do so to opine as to the potential short-term bounce. In fact, I want to be corrected if I misinterpreted the information.
James, I am thinking of you also because you have made excellent analyses in your P&F Chart thread. Linking your thoughts to todays events, we might be looking at further confirmation of the development of the possible bounce.
Right now, I am fully committed 100% between the C and S funds, as many others in this board are. The temptation to go to cash (G fund) has been great. However, I am trying to recover some of my losses if a bounce is to occur. Although there are no guarantees of a bounce happening, I will be losing more money yet, if this fails. In this case dollar cost averaging (purchasing more shares) would seem to be the solution with the expectation of rising prices eventually.
This morning, a technical analyst on CNBC stated his opinion that we are about to get a short-term bounce, but that he expects to see the markets drop again around the 22nd of October. Two other female analyst considered the global events in Italy, Europe, the U.S., and Asia. Central bankers and financial authorities are decidedly bent on not allowing any more bank failures, and apparently this "baby step", is a good start before the investors regain confidence in the markets. The analysts opined that they expect a bounce in these extremely oversold markets. But they expect another drop when the reality of lower earnings expectations sets in and investors understand that slower economic growth will linger for some time to come. However, their analysis is consistent with the technical analysis of the first guest that was interviewed on CNBC. In addition, all of this supports James technical analysis of the SPX P&F Chart, regarding the "TARGET MET", as well as the behavior of the SPX successfully testing the 970 level. Furthermore, Wall Street apparently likes the actions taken to stabilize the financial markets, and cash futures remain persuasively positive.
Pardon me for extending myself here. I guess I have relieved some of the tension I have built up. Best wishes to all!
James48843
Well-known member
Thanks Airlift!
You wrote
That's exactly what is about to happen. You see it. I see it. Those MSNBC spokesfalcks see it. Since everybody sees it, everybody will do it, and that's why it will ONLY be a very short bounce. Everybody expects it to be only a short bounce, not a reversal. Self-fullfilling prophecy.
We WILL get some kind of a bounce near here. Maybe today, then again maybe not today. We'll see.
The question is how much of a bounce, and for how long.
My answer- not much, and not for long.
Odds say it will only be about an eight or nine square bounce up. Overall, we have nothing to show us yet that we've broken the curse of the bear.
So the smart play is- like what everyone else is about to do- play the bounce up if we can, and take a snip, then wait for another opportunity later. It's about the only way to play a bear market. It's just too dangerous to do anything else.
You wrote
That's exactly what is about to happen. You see it. I see it. Those MSNBC spokesfalcks see it. Since everybody sees it, everybody will do it, and that's why it will ONLY be a very short bounce. Everybody expects it to be only a short bounce, not a reversal. Self-fullfilling prophecy.
We WILL get some kind of a bounce near here. Maybe today, then again maybe not today. We'll see.
The question is how much of a bounce, and for how long.
My answer- not much, and not for long.
Odds say it will only be about an eight or nine square bounce up. Overall, we have nothing to show us yet that we've broken the curse of the bear.
So the smart play is- like what everyone else is about to do- play the bounce up if we can, and take a snip, then wait for another opportunity later. It's about the only way to play a bear market. It's just too dangerous to do anything else.
James48843
Well-known member
One more note that I'll throw in just for thought.
We've all been watching for the huge increase in volume to signal a capitulation.
It occurred to me on the way home last night WHY we haven't seen the huge spike in volume.
It's because they banned so many short sales.
Short sales numbers are pluged into the number of shares traded. Without those, the volume is artificially smaller.
We saw a minor spike in volume yesterday. In reality, that IS a surge in trading volume, because it's the volume WITHOUT counting the number of short shares.
I had totally failed to take that into account, until I realized that last nigtht.
Which means we really ARE due for a little more postive bounce soon.
We'll see.
Good luck.
We've all been watching for the huge increase in volume to signal a capitulation.
It occurred to me on the way home last night WHY we haven't seen the huge spike in volume.
It's because they banned so many short sales.
Short sales numbers are pluged into the number of shares traded. Without those, the volume is artificially smaller.
We saw a minor spike in volume yesterday. In reality, that IS a surge in trading volume, because it's the volume WITHOUT counting the number of short shares.
I had totally failed to take that into account, until I realized that last nigtht.
Which means we really ARE due for a little more postive bounce soon.
We'll see.
Good luck.
James48843
Well-known member
Ok- here is the opening chart- and we got the three green as expected:
So the question becomes....
NOW WHAT?
Where do we go from here?
So the question becomes....
NOW WHAT?
Where do we go from here?
TRAFFIC_DOG
Member
I disagree with this.
The exreme credit seize up and panic has had the effect of blowing us right through that intermediate period where we would expect the stair step action down. Normally it takes awhile for the wrangling of opinions and data to get us to a clear picture of what has just occurred, along with what this means for the future. This is what shows up in the charts as knee jerk drops, followed by partial recovery rallies, then farther down as confirmation of the negative scenario comes in.
I don't beleive anyone could possibly need time for the reality of a slower economy and lower earnings to set in.
The market is pricing in a recession at these levels right here.
Any further declines will solely be the result in a lack of confidence that the proper functioning of the credit environment is close at hand.
The longer the patient remains in a coma, the worse the prognosis for a full recovery.
James48843
Well-known member
Fourth brush with 970 mark, and it held again. 971.38.
Good.
Solid foundation for a quick blip up.
I'm still thinking Green today by the end of the day.
I'm looking one and two days out, max right now.
Good.
Solid foundation for a quick blip up.
I'm still thinking Green today by the end of the day.
I'm looking one and two days out, max right now.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
sp500 at 967 now. :worried:
James48843
Well-known member
This is really, really bad.
Gumby
Active member
James,
Did we actually get a three box reversal earlier today or was the Looooong tail down extended to 30 O's.
James48843
Well-known member
This is really, really bad.
I am speechless.
I'll let the chart do the talking.
I am speechless.
I'll let the chart do the talking.
James48843
Well-known member
That's some "down" there.
James48843
Well-known member
By the way- I've never seen a 34 square "long tail" down on the S&P 500 before.
In my life.
I'm 48 years old.
I guess if you live long enough, you see something new all the time, eh?
In my life.
I'm 48 years old.
I guess if you live long enough, you see something new all the time, eh?
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