P&F Chart School

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Ok- here is what I was seeing yesterday when I posted that note.

According to the chart, we flipped to a 1510 bullish price objective as a result of the big move up friday. Then, we fell back a little in the "first cycle" down after the big jump.

On technical merit, that puts us in a fine position to be ready to buy - as the chart is indicating a possible slight fall to 1150 to 1170 area. Yesterday we only made it down to 1188, so I'm not sure what will happen. It COULD be that there is a lot of strength in the background ready to pounce on, so when it does go up again on this next cycle up, it could be a strong one.

Ooops- I guess about here is where I should post the chart, no?


Anyway- as I was saying. On technical merit, it looks to be a very favorable place to buy in. The next cycle up should be a strong one. I'm thinking that this is the place where the new bottom support line is going to form underneath- I've penciled in where I THINK it will form. It hasn't formed yet- so we'll have to wait and see if it does.​

Now, the one thing I would say here is that if you've been following this thread from the beginning- the one thing that really drives P&F chart movement is outside forces. We are TOTALLY being affected right now by outside forces. If fear dominates the markets in New York, and some other big shoe drops- then- all bets are off. And yes, another shoe could drop any time.​

On the other hand, Warren Buffett just decided to put his toes in the water with Goldman - that could be a good driver today. We'll see how it goes.​

Everything is happening at about five times the normal speed of things now- big swings up and big swings down.​

These are the times when you have to pick your points, and cross your fingers.​

As always- you make your own decisions- don't listen to me. I'm not very good at it-​

but I am always, always learning.​

On technical merit, if this were a platform diving contest, I'd say technical FORM is looking very good. This is one of the better FORMATIONS from a technical perspective, and a move to 1160 range would be a 9.5 on the rating scale as a technical opportunity here.​

STYLE, we'll that's something else. With the big gyrations happening, it' s not pretty.​

We'll just have to wait and see.​

Caution- dont hit your head on the bottom of the pool if you dive in.​
 
Yep.

That's about how I feel tonight.

All previous comments about "technical formations" are hereby canceled.

I bit by teeth. Bad.

I have NO IDEA where we go next.

Too much outside influence to even begin to guess.

and THANKS for the video!
 
JTH said:
Bump :p (hint hint)
Click to expand...

S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) INDX
29-Sep-2008, 16:00 ET, daily, O:1,209.07 H:1,209.07 L:1,106.42 C:1,106.42 V:5,904,864,000 Chg:-106.85
Traditional, 3 box reversal chart
Prelim. Bearish Price Obj. (Revised): 990.00
P&F Pattern: Double Bottom Breakdown

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,P&pref=G


JTH, tried to oblige you with a P&F Chart but all I can get to copy is the captioning. The chart itself won't paste. Probably another Vista glitch to make me crazy. But these days, driving me crazy is a short trip! :o

Lady
 
Maybe I'm missing something, but how can a VIX chart have a "price" objective? That better not be the volatility objective! :sick:
 
Silverbird,
I'm no expert with this, just a student, but felt compelled to reply. It was just an interesting chart overall. We know POs change/adjust, and I expect this PO was set when VIX hit 49. Anyway if the reversal continues, I'd expect the PO to be revised (not that at some point, e.g., in a d-word situation, it couldn't happen, IMHO). Maybe our Teacher can add insight?. :o
 
P&F Chart still UGLY.

Nothing but down ahead showing.

UGLY.


Price objective remains at 990,

Trend is still down.

Last up cycle only made it halfway from previous high.

Woud the last one out of the market please turn off the lights, because I really don't want to see the bloodshed anymore, and if you turn out the lights, then maybe I won't have to look at it as much.

Thank you
​
 
Interestingly- we're not quite at the 990 mark. We got down to just a hair over 1000 before it bounced back up.

At the same time, the 990 mark did NOT change in the P&F chart, at least not yet, so that very well may be the rally point ahead.

Watching for a floor here to develop. We've tested 1000 region once. Looking for a second test, and then maybe a third to dip below 1000 to the 990 mark.

Once there- it MAY be time to move back in.

(P.S.- I am also watching the "top ten" of TSPTALKERS, for the majority of them continue to be on the sidelines. )
 
James48843 said:
Interestingly- we're not quite at the 990 mark. We got down to just a hair over 1000 before it bounced back up.

At the same time, the 990 mark did NOT change in the P&F chart, at least not yet, so that very well may be the rally point ahead.

Watching for a floor here to develop. We've tested 1000 region once. Looking for a second test, and then maybe a third to dip below 1000 to the 990 mark.

Once there- it MAY be time to move back in.

(P.S.- I am also watching the "top ten" of TSPTALKERS, for the majority of them continue to be on the sidelines. )
Click to expand...

Just to let you know. I have been watching the chart also. But I am looking for the 980 on the S&P.

Thanks for all of the charts and everything else you post. Keeps all of us on our toes. :)
 
wv-girl said:
Just to let you know. I have been watching the chart also. But I am looking for the 980 on the S&P.

Thanks for all of the charts and everything else you post. Keeps all of us on our toes. :)
Click to expand...

Might need to revise that 980???:embarrest:
 
Elgallo said:
Does this thing EVEN have a bottom to even mark!

Anyone know what the VIX and volumn was today?
Click to expand...
View attachment 4820
close 53.68
quoteUpLarge.gif
1.63 3.13%Last Trade as of 4:14 PM ET 10/7/08
0.00/0 Bid/Size
0.00/0 Ask/Size
52.05 Price Open
52.05 Previous Close
54.19 Day High
47.03 Day Low
-- Beta (5yr)
58.24/10/6/08 52wk High/Date
15.82/5/19/08 52wk Low/Date
0.0 Market Capitalization
0.0 Shares Outstanding
133.00 Volatility Avg(20 day)
0.0 Avg Vol (10 day)
NM P/E Ratio
0.00 EPS (TTM)


The S&P 500 shed 5.7 percent, while the Nasdaq lost 5.8 percent. Both indexes have declined about 10 percent in the past two sessions. The CBOE Volatility Index, widely considered to be the best gauge of fear in the market, notched a second straight record, closing at nearly 54. The last time the VIX closed above 51 was in 1987
 
Volumn today seems to be in the order of 4 billion shares if one looks at the graphs at the bottom of this page.

What volumn will it take to reach "capitulation"? $ billion seems alot to moi.
 
Two quick points.

1. VIX ran up above 53 today, but NOT as high as yesterday. I guess that must mean we're getting used to 5% drops every day.

2. P&F Chart is now showing we're very, very close to the 990 mark it predicted.

We're within spitting distance of the 990 mark. IF I had unlimited ability to move funds on a rapid basis, I would consider being a buyer here.

Now, since we DON't have unlimited moves, I'm a bit more cautious. This month I've already used one move to get out of the market already. So the next move into stocks, has to be a very, very likely gain. I will be watching tomorrow A.M. to see what it does before making a decision here.

One thing that is interesting to me is that the 990 mark on the down side has NOT changed. In the past, some of that whipsaw action would have adjusted the downside - but so far, that has not appeared.

And the momentum on the downside is very, very strong. No matter what the Fed, the SEC, or world bankers are doing, we are getting a worldwide panic attack knocking everything over.

I expect to see- perhaps starting tomorrow-, a swing back up. Maybe, Maybe not.

This is NOT the bottom. But it very well could be a rebound point here shortly.

Let get real her. We're sitting -14% below Oct 1st's level, and we're only at the 4th trading day of the month.

Most months, even in down cycles, NEVER finish more than -11% down. And those are RARE events.

The one exception was that big crash of 1987, which this IS NOT.

That year October was down -21 %. Followed by -8% more percent in November 1987. But this IS NOT 1987- not even close. Everything is happening in slow motion this time- and it is much mroe like 1929-1932 than 1987.

Every other month since 1950, we've had AT MOST an -11% decline in a single month.

October historic, down months 1950 to present:

Down Years
2005 -1.77%
2000 -0.50%
1997 -3.45%
1995 -0.50%
1990 -0.69%
1989 -2.52%
1987 -21.76%
1984 -0.01%
1983 -1.47%
1979 -6.75%
1978 -9.16%
1977 -4.34%
1976 -2.22%
1973 -0.13%
1971 -4.18%
1970 -1.25%
1967 -3.53%
1957 -3.98%
1955 -0.35%
1954 -1.89%
1951 -2.26%
1950 -0.81%

2008=?

Source: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm

So the only question remaining now is - when to jump back in?

Is it time yet?

Answer that- and we'll see.

​
 
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