- Reaction score
- 1,812
09/11/25
Stocks were mixed yesterday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting slight to modest gains with the help of a tech giant gaining 36% on the day. Otherwise, the Dow and small caps were down again. Yields were up early, but flipped over to close down on the day helping the F-fund to another gain.
The news of Charlie Kirk's assassination is stunning and I am not really in the mood to write a stock market commentary, but I have a job to do. Whether you knew of Charlie or not, liked him or not, supported his beliefs or opposed them, it was a sad day for this country.
Today also happens to be the 24th anniversary of 9/11, so in honor and remembrance of those fallen, and with a heavy heart...
The PPI report came in much lower than expected yesterday and it appears that the producers may be eating any costs of tariff inflation so far as their margins are coming down, and not passing any price increases onto the consumer - at least not yet. This morning we will get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and that may tell us more.
You're probably getting bored with this, but I continue to post this slow moving Dow Transportation Index chart because I feel it could be the tell for the economy and maybe the rest of the stocks market. It was down again yesterday but support held and it needs it to hold because it is looking over a precipice.
I do want to clarify that the economy IS NOT the stock market, meaning stocks don't necessarily go up or down with the economy, but rather more with monetary policy changes during peaks and troughs of the economy, and sometimes weak economic data brings on loose monetary policy which is usually bullish for stocks.
The weakness in the labor market sounds like bad news for the stock market but now the Fed is almost certainly cutting interest rates next week, and more may be on the way, and it is causing investors to remain bullish on stocks. A prolonged weakening economic environment may not get away with that, but right now the GDP estimates and forecasts are still looking quite positive.
One stock set that tone yesterday. A 36% gain from a company the size of Oracle is unheard of. The reason they rallied was not because of their earnings in the prior quarter, but rather their outlook going forward, and that outlook is taking lower interest rates into consideration.
The S&P 500 / C-fund continues to grinding higher. It hasn't been a runaway train, which may be why we haven't seen much of a capitulation from the bears. The bears continue to believe either stocks are about to rollover, or in my case looking for a playable dip since I have a good sized cash position because I don't like to chase or buy at the all time highs, especially in August or September, and it has cost me lately. Ever since the lows in April, that 30-day moving average has been a good place to do some dip buying but every time it gets there we think, this time it is going to break down and give us a real correction. Not yet, although the tests of that average are getting closer and closer, perhaps like a bouncing ball running out of steam and heading toward the edge of the table?
The Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 AM ET.
The DWCPF* (S-fund) underperformed for the second straight day yesterday, but it had been on a good run. The fact that yields went down yesterday and it still underperformed is something to keep an eye on, but you can see in this 5-day chart that it did rally hard into the close yesterday.
* There is a bad quote that occurred on DWCPF on September 3rd of 20,000 and it has distorted the chart, so until they fix that, this chart will be a 5-minute chart spanning just a few days.
ACWX (I-fund) made another new high yesterday, but it closed near the lows of the day and just below the breakout line.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up again so that is four closes above the top of that channel, which makes this a pretty legitimate breakout. That open gap in the channel is still there to get bond holders looking over their shoulder.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed yesterday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting slight to modest gains with the help of a tech giant gaining 36% on the day. Otherwise, the Dow and small caps were down again. Yields were up early, but flipped over to close down on the day helping the F-fund to another gain.
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The news of Charlie Kirk's assassination is stunning and I am not really in the mood to write a stock market commentary, but I have a job to do. Whether you knew of Charlie or not, liked him or not, supported his beliefs or opposed them, it was a sad day for this country.
Today also happens to be the 24th anniversary of 9/11, so in honor and remembrance of those fallen, and with a heavy heart...
The PPI report came in much lower than expected yesterday and it appears that the producers may be eating any costs of tariff inflation so far as their margins are coming down, and not passing any price increases onto the consumer - at least not yet. This morning we will get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and that may tell us more.
You're probably getting bored with this, but I continue to post this slow moving Dow Transportation Index chart because I feel it could be the tell for the economy and maybe the rest of the stocks market. It was down again yesterday but support held and it needs it to hold because it is looking over a precipice.
I do want to clarify that the economy IS NOT the stock market, meaning stocks don't necessarily go up or down with the economy, but rather more with monetary policy changes during peaks and troughs of the economy, and sometimes weak economic data brings on loose monetary policy which is usually bullish for stocks.
The weakness in the labor market sounds like bad news for the stock market but now the Fed is almost certainly cutting interest rates next week, and more may be on the way, and it is causing investors to remain bullish on stocks. A prolonged weakening economic environment may not get away with that, but right now the GDP estimates and forecasts are still looking quite positive.
One stock set that tone yesterday. A 36% gain from a company the size of Oracle is unheard of. The reason they rallied was not because of their earnings in the prior quarter, but rather their outlook going forward, and that outlook is taking lower interest rates into consideration.
The S&P 500 / C-fund continues to grinding higher. It hasn't been a runaway train, which may be why we haven't seen much of a capitulation from the bears. The bears continue to believe either stocks are about to rollover, or in my case looking for a playable dip since I have a good sized cash position because I don't like to chase or buy at the all time highs, especially in August or September, and it has cost me lately. Ever since the lows in April, that 30-day moving average has been a good place to do some dip buying but every time it gets there we think, this time it is going to break down and give us a real correction. Not yet, although the tests of that average are getting closer and closer, perhaps like a bouncing ball running out of steam and heading toward the edge of the table?
The Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 AM ET.
The DWCPF* (S-fund) underperformed for the second straight day yesterday, but it had been on a good run. The fact that yields went down yesterday and it still underperformed is something to keep an eye on, but you can see in this 5-day chart that it did rally hard into the close yesterday.
* There is a bad quote that occurred on DWCPF on September 3rd of 20,000 and it has distorted the chart, so until they fix that, this chart will be a 5-minute chart spanning just a few days.
ACWX (I-fund) made another new high yesterday, but it closed near the lows of the day and just below the breakout line.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was up again so that is four closes above the top of that channel, which makes this a pretty legitimate breakout. That open gap in the channel is still there to get bond holders looking over their shoulder.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
