oleg850's Account Talk

[oleg850]

After many inquiries and requests, I am finally starting my own account talk. I've been tossing around the idea for a while, but was unsure if I would have the time to maintain the thread adequately. This weekend, I will debut a long-only trend following system for ETF's that I have developed, along with a bias indicator for TSP trading. I hope these systems perform as well going forward as they have for me over the last year. I will keep the details to a minimum, as they are "proprietary" in nature, and I believe the more people know about a system/strategy, the faster it stops working. I will also use this thread to share some individual trades I take from time to time, but most importantly to share trading lessons about attitude, mental discipline, risk management, and diversification, among other topics. More to follow this weekend!

I appreciate all the support and hope this forum will help enlighten us all as traders/investors.

Oleg

 

[rcknfrewld]

are you from Sweden

 

[dhstdog]

Starting your own thread and using the word proprietary is a few steps away from going premium. Going premium is like getting put on the cover of the new Madden game. BE AFRAID my friend BE AFRAID. LOL my friend good luck to you and congrats...

 

[oleg850]

Let's not jump the gun here, Dog. I'm sure your knowledge and experience will help make this thread objective and information-rich, and not just a place to gloat or whine about good/bad trades. Looking forward to your participation!

 

[WhoDey]

Happy to check the forums this morning and see this, Oleg. I particularly like the intent to address topics such as risk management and diversification.

Looking forward to some great reads!

Best of luck.

 

[weatherweenie]

Starting your own thread and using the word proprietary is a few steps away from going premium. Going premium is like getting put on the cover of the new Madden game. BE AFRAID my friend BE AFRAID. LOL my friend good luck to you and congrats...

Be careful with mocking premium services. I speak from experience.

 

[oleg850]

Starting your own thread and using the word proprietary is a few steps away from going premium. Going premium is like getting put on the cover of the new Madden game. BE AFRAID my friend BE AFRAID. LOL my friend good luck to you and congrats...

Be careful with mocking premium services. I speak from experience.

I'm not mocking a Premium Service with this thread. It's merely a forum for me and others to share our insight and analysis on the markets. Moreover, I will post weekly trading lessons - many learned from personal experience. I feel this site, and others, have a lot of people willing to put a lot of money at the mercy of the markets with no real concept of risk or money management ability. My goal is to help address those issues so we don't have so many sour members complaining about how they're losing money hand over fist. There will always be critics, and they are free to come and go as they please. The last thing on my mind is starting a Premium Service. Dealing with people's inability to control their emotions is not worth the stress, for me anyway.

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm not mocking a Premium Service with this thread. It's merely a forum for me and others to share our insight and analysis on the markets. Moreover, I will post weekly trading lessons - many learned from personal experience. I feel this site, and others, have a lot of people willing to put a lot of money at the mercy of the markets with no real concept of risk or money management ability. My goal is to help address those issues so we don't have so many sour members complaining about how they're losing money hand over fist. There will always be critics, and they are free to come and go as they please. The last thing on my mind is starting a Premium Service. Dealing with people's inability to control their emotions is not worth the stress, for me anyway.

I was replying to dhstdog, not you.

 

[skycophigh]

I too will look forward to your insight, as a rookie, i need all the help i can get...

Happy to check the forums this morning and see this, Oleg. I particularly like the intent to address topics such as risk management and diversification.

Looking forward to some great reads!

Best of luck.

 

[oleg850]

Picked up a partial position of NUGT at $54.90. Will pick up another lot at $50, if we make it down there. Price target is $70-75.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Picked up a partial position of NUGT at $54.90. Will pick up another lot at $50, if we make it down there. Price target is $70-75.

Good luck! By the way, the daily range for NUGT was $65.16 - $60.75. Perhpaps you meant you picked some up at $64.90?

Oops, looking at yesterday's prices. Doh!

 

[not_too_shabby]

Good luck! By the way, the daily range for NUGT was $65.16 - $60.75. Perhpaps you meant you picked some up at $64.90?

Oleg usually says what he means. I'm seeing a close at $54.08 today so I'm thinking he meant what he said.

 

[GEW]

Picked up a partial position of NUGT at $54.90. Will pick up another lot at $50, if we make it down there. Price target is $70-75.

The quote below was from you explaining the reasoning on your last NUGT buy for $6.24 (before the reverse split). Would this recent trade (above quote) have the same explanation? If not, what would it be?

Thanks Oleg!

People started buying gold, and lots of it, lol! I explained in a forum post earlier this week that there were a lot of shorts in NUGT, and any recovery rally could be "fast and furious." My guess is there were a lot of buy stops at various increments above $5 that, when triggered, created forced buying. In case you don't know, a "buy stop" is just like a regular limit stop order, except for shorts. When you short an equity, your goal is for the price to come down, and as the trade goes in your favor, many people will place "buy stops" slightly above the current price in case the trade reverses direction. Once triggered, the buy stop will buy that equity to "cover your short." In yesterday's case, the higher the price of NUGT went, the more buy stops were triggered, and hence the more buying that occurred. I think we see some good follow through on this action next week, as yesterday's volume was the biggest NUGT has ever had, even bigger than the capitulation volume that urged me to get in the trade in the first place. Always good to see a nice reversal candle on volume. In my opinion, gold in general is getting quite oversold, and while the media keeps pumping that it is in a bear market and to stay away from it, I think we are approaching levels that could sustain a much longer bounce. I like CEF as a non-leveraged gold fund, since over 90% of their assets are in physical gold. Should it pierce $12 in the next month and I may start dipping my toe in the water for a longer term play (1-2 years).

 

[oleg850]

The quote below was from you explaining the reasoning on your last NUGT buy for $6.24 (before the reverse split). Would this recent trade (above quote) have the same explanation? If not, what would it be?

Thanks Oleg!

There are always a lot of institutional shorts in leveraged ETF products like NUGT/DUST (or UVXY/SVXY for example) because they bleed out so fast. That is why these instruments exist, to make the big boys selling them money. From time to time, the parameters I use to determine high probability trades direct my attention to NUGT. This particular trade is technical in nature and I wont go into the details. I will say that the upcoming FED taper was a big factor in me taking it, as I feel that will create favorable volatility with the metals and miners. Don't fall in love with this ETF though, trying to trade it regularly is poor money management, IMO. I think the last time I played it was in June or July - as you can remember, that was a big winner.

 

[oleg850]

Well I thought I would be able to find time this weekend to debut my systems properly, but no such luck. I am getting ready to relocate half way across the country and have a lot of household "chores" I am tending to. What I will do below is give a quick abstract of the trading system(s) I have put together and post the latest signals. As I find free time, I will elaborate on certain aspects more, but like I stated earlier, I will not delve into the nitty gritty of either system, mainly to keep them working profitably.

Before I go on, I will state that any information, market-related or otherwise, found on this thread ("oleg850's Account Talk") is not investment advice, and should not be considered as such, either implicitly or explicitly. I am not an SEC registered investment adviser, trading/investing is merely my hobby. I may or may not take the trades I post on this or any other thread, on the TSPTalk website, or anywhere else on the world wide web. You are free to use the information provided as you see fit. If you choose to take a trade I post or follow an investment systems/strategies found on this thread or elsewhere, you do so on your own accord, after evaluating the risk involved in trading the financial markets. Investing/trading involves significant risk and the potential of significant monetary losses. I am not authorized to give individual trading advice, so please do not ask me for such. All information provided on this thread and elsewhere is for educational purposes only. I will not be held responsible for any losses or other consequences incurred by following any/all information contained in this forum thread.

Please be courteous and professional with your comments. I like jokes as much as the next guy, but I would prefer a more market-focused discussion group. Save your complaints and frivolous posts for the "entertainment" threads on this site.

Moving on,

As I stated earlier, the main trading system I am using for ETF trades is a long-only trend following system that utilizes proprietary stops. That means the only signals it can generate are long (buy), hold, or cash (stop). The stops are continuously updated as the trend progresses, so as to prevent whipsaws and premature position exits. Some of you may have tried using stops with 3X ETF's, it is nearly impossible unless you set them pretty wide. I have found a way that is effective at preserving capital and still allows the system to hang on to 80% of the trend. The signals are issued on a weekly basis (again so as to prevent whipsaws and cut down on trading fees). Generally speaking, the system will only produce 1 signal per week, although it is possible that 2 signals are produced if the system is stopped out of a position.

A quick reason for why this is a long-only system. It has capital preservation as its underlying principle. Shorting the markets can be profitable, but few can do it on a consistently profitable basis. The general trend of the markets as and always will be up, and it's foolish to fight against the trend. A lot of newcomers to the trading realm develop a false sense of ability and start throwing their money at the market without any real understanding of risk. There is a reason why employer-sponsored retirement accounts are generally long only and have only a limited selection of funds - to keep the plan participants solvent! If you find yourself trading long/short 3X ETF's as a primary trading vehicle with more than 20% of your total account capital, I would seriously evaluate your risk management principles (or lack thereof). Ordinary people do not get rich overnight (or in a few short years) by trading the markets. Trading these very risky instruments lightheartedly will only help the statistic that 95% of amateur traders consistently lose money.

The system uses SPY/IWM as a barometer. The signals are issued based on these non-leveraged ETF's. I will keep stats for SPY/IWM trades, as well as for SSO (2X long SPY ETF and TNA (3X long IWM ETF), but if using the leveraged products, please take into account the risk involved. I will try to do a post on position sizing later this week to give everyone an idea of how I personally think leveraged ETF's should be used.

Anyway,

(1) The long-only ETF system has been long since COB 09/06/2013.

(2) The indicator system (which is long/short) is currently biased long.

I will be using the indicator system for timing TSP trades. All ETF trades will be taken in accordance with the trend following system. I will post YTD stats later this week, as I've been testing this system since January 2013. Since this is "officially" the system's go-live date, I am more interested in the results going forward than any back-tested data.

Hope everyone had a great weekend!

 

[oleg850]

Just sold NUGT at $67.20 from $54.90 entry for 22.4% profit. On to the next trade!

 

[Dutchy]

oleg850.....Just sold NUGT at $67.20 from $54.90 entry for 22.4% profit. On to the next trade!

Great trade Oleg !! I'm holding NUGT too, but won't sell at this level. Have a long way to go to be profitable... Hoping for the best over the next weeks, month..

 

[WhoDey]

I decided to sell on this afternoon's bounce at $68.37. I decided to play it safe and not gamble on Bernake saying something this afternoon to cause the price to dip. Turns out things continued to go up, but I'm okay. I've had a series of bad trades and am very content locking in a nice gain.

That said, I still think there's upside to NUGT. If the price pulls back in the coming days perhaps I'll re-enter.

Thanks for the conversation!

 

[Luke]

Picked up a partial position of NUGT at $54.90. Will pick up another lot at $50, if we make it down there. Price target is $70-75.

Wow, dead nuts with that call! Great trade, now that I know you have your own accont talk I'll be subscribing.

Edit: All your systems signals will be posted here correct Oleg?

 

[CrabClaw]

Oleg, are you still looking at $50 for a good buy in on NUGT? Just curious after it basically met your $70 price target on last week's run.