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OK I Fund Dogs Where Are You?
- Thread starter nnuut
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Woof!
nnuut,I do not see the dollar gaining any strength tomorrow. If Friday's trade report comes in like expected, that is an increase in the trade deficit, I expect the dollar will take another hit. I see no reason for the trade deficit to be good news. We are not an export country. But, foreign equities won't like that news either. They are dependent on our economy to keep the global market going.
Watch the foreign market tonight. I bet it drops like our domestics did today. I also expect our domestics to drop again tomorrow. Don't forget about oil. It's taking its toll on equities right now. Even a good inventory report didn't help (lower dollar is the reason).
If Friday's report comes in showing a widening trade balance...another sell-off could ensue. Question is, how far are we going to drop? FOMC looms on the horizon.
I will say this, the "I" fund is probably a better short term play than either "C" or "S" right now.
Just my thoughts. I'm not an economist (not that they're any help).
Good Luck!
Woof!
nnuut,I do not see the dollar gaining any strength tomorrow. If Friday's trade report comes in like expected, that is an increase in the trade deficit, I expect the dollar will take another hit. I see no reason for the trade deficit to be good news. We are not an export country. But, foreign equities won't like that news either. They are dependent on our economy to keep the global market going.
Watch the foreign market tonight. I bet it drops like our domestics did today. I also expect our domestics to drop again tomorrow. Don't forget about oil. It's taking its toll on equities right now. Even a good inventory report didn't help (lower dollar is the reason).
If Friday's report comes in showing a widening trade balance...another sell-off could ensue. Question is, how far are we going to drop? FOMC looms on the horizon.
I will say this, the "I" fund is probably a better short term play than either "C" or "S" right now.
Just my thoughts. I'm not an economist (not that they're any help).
Good Luck!
imported post
I agree with the I trend continuing forward/up with an occassional draw back, and that's about as in-depth as I go for now, other than the recent word on the streetout of asia, particularly Japan is fairly good economically,in spite of pressures they are having with oil, as we are. Of course the Euros could put a drag on I. As for investors here, smart or otherwise, appears they may be dumping the dollar in favor of chasing the oil stocks/funds/commodities which would seem to account for the pressure on the dollar and then add on the trade deficit, ow!
Just got this off Reuters on Yahoo:
TOKYO (Reuters) - [size=-1]The dollar spun to a two-month low against the euro on Thursday, hit by comments from the Japanese prime minister that Japan's foreign reserves needed diversity. ....Traders said a range of factors have dented the dollar, including oil rising to near an all-time high and concerns about upcoming U.S. trade deficit data, though a prime mover was the attraction of currencies of countries with high interest rates. [/size]
I agree with the I trend continuing forward/up with an occassional draw back, and that's about as in-depth as I go for now, other than the recent word on the streetout of asia, particularly Japan is fairly good economically,in spite of pressures they are having with oil, as we are. Of course the Euros could put a drag on I. As for investors here, smart or otherwise, appears they may be dumping the dollar in favor of chasing the oil stocks/funds/commodities which would seem to account for the pressure on the dollar and then add on the trade deficit, ow!
Just got this off Reuters on Yahoo:
TOKYO (Reuters) - [size=-1]The dollar spun to a two-month low against the euro on Thursday, hit by comments from the Japanese prime minister that Japan's foreign reserves needed diversity. ....Traders said a range of factors have dented the dollar, including oil rising to near an all-time high and concerns about upcoming U.S. trade deficit data, though a prime mover was the attraction of currencies of countries with high interest rates. [/size]
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
Dollar is tanking again. Asian equities are following our market down from yesterday. Euroland has not begun trading yet, but I suspect will also drop. Even if the trade balance looks good, the "I" fund may not be the place to be Friday. The dollar will probably bounce and offset any gains.
It's so mixed. The Fed keeps telling us the economy is moving along okay, but we have so many negatives weighing on the market. Maybe I'm a little too early with my expectation that the market is going to drop, but it's not as though my attitude toward the marketisn't justified.Iwant to get back in, I'm just having a hard time finding a reason to.
I do keep an eye on John's market timing models. He's all "G" right now too as are you and others. I happen to like my company right now
.
tsptalk wrote:
Of course, you could be right Tom. It may be a time to buy the rumor. The problem as I see it is that the jobs we seem to be manufacturing are service sector jobs. What are we exporting? China's still putting cheap goods on the street here. Plus, what if the report comes in lukewarm? Even so, it's tempting to put a little something in, especially if we're downtoday. It just seems like such a gamble though.
Dollar is tanking again. Asian equities are following our market down from yesterday. Euroland has not begun trading yet, but I suspect will also drop. Even if the trade balance looks good, the "I" fund may not be the place to be Friday. The dollar will probably bounce and offset any gains.
It's so mixed. The Fed keeps telling us the economy is moving along okay, but we have so many negatives weighing on the market. Maybe I'm a little too early with my expectation that the market is going to drop, but it's not as though my attitude toward the marketisn't justified.Iwant to get back in, I'm just having a hard time finding a reason to.
I do keep an eye on John's market timing models. He's all "G" right now too as are you and others. I happen to like my company right now
.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
imported post
Don't know, Just don't know???? Think we will lose on the Trade numbers and may force the market further down, but that may be a chance to get in and catch the bounce? Rolo thinks the other direction "Bounce, possibly. I'm not expecting anything as volatile as the C fund, though. Steady as she goes, upward, is the way I see it." I'm in a wait and see mode for now.:*
Don't know, Just don't know???? Think we will lose on the Trade numbers and may force the market further down, but that may be a chance to get in and catch the bounce? Rolo thinks the other direction "Bounce, possibly. I'm not expecting anything as volatile as the C fund, though. Steady as she goes, upward, is the way I see it." I'm in a wait and see mode for now.:*
imported post
Speculating is healthy and a great way to learn about the market and economics. However, with so much uncertainty, I will go where the evidence leads...the observable, measurable, certain evidence. That evidence, so far, is that the I fund is in a very nice uptrend and I will stick with it until I see a clear indicator otherwise (i.e. it tanks on volume/tangible bad news ordollar clearly reverses trend).
The same goes for C only it isn't nearly as strong; if it doesn't resume the uptrend by Monday, I will move 100% I.
Speculating is healthy and a great way to learn about the market and economics. However, with so much uncertainty, I will go where the evidence leads...the observable, measurable, certain evidence. That evidence, so far, is that the I fund is in a very nice uptrend and I will stick with it until I see a clear indicator otherwise (i.e. it tanks on volume/tangible bad news ordollar clearly reverses trend).
The same goes for C only it isn't nearly as strong; if it doesn't resume the uptrend by Monday, I will move 100% I.
imported post
I'm with Rolo, and playing the long-term uptrend. Playing the short term wiggles hasn't helped me. I expect there will be choppiness, but I believe the uptrend will continue over the next weeks and possibly months. If the dollar continues to weaken toward $1.45/euro, which many anticipate is likely, that alone could give me a 10% return this year even if the stocks themselves remain flat. I'll take that.
Until I see a definitive downturn, I will stick to my 100% I.
I'm with Rolo, and playing the long-term uptrend. Playing the short term wiggles hasn't helped me. I expect there will be choppiness, but I believe the uptrend will continue over the next weeks and possibly months. If the dollar continues to weaken toward $1.45/euro, which many anticipate is likely, that alone could give me a 10% return this year even if the stocks themselves remain flat. I'll take that.
Until I see a definitive downturn, I will stick to my 100% I.
TEUFEL HUNDEN
Member
imported post
I think that the I may fall a little and that could be a good op to buy in for people. I also think that over the next few weeks it will continue to gain strength. I will remain 100% I unless it drops below the 10 DMA.
US $ down .13% right now and EFV is down .28 EFA down .45 Not to bad. The oil issue will leave a scratch, but I think this fund will continue to gain.
I think that the I may fall a little and that could be a good op to buy in for people. I also think that over the next few weeks it will continue to gain strength. I will remain 100% I unless it drops below the 10 DMA.
US $ down .13% right now and EFV is down .28 EFA down .45 Not to bad. The oil issue will leave a scratch, but I think this fund will continue to gain.
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
smedlap wrote:
[align=center]
[/align]
Happy trading,
TSPGO!
smedlap wrote:
I would be a little uneasy to be 100% invested in I. The I-Fund has been in a sustained uptrend for a while but it is showing signs of slowing down and possible reversal. It is slowly moving away from the upper trend line and approaching the base trendline. Watch the base trend line carefully. If It breaks it, trouble is ahead. I am expecting a sell signal any day now. (for sell signals see http://www.tspgo.com)
[align=center]
Happy trading,
TSPGO!
TEUFEL HUNDEN
Member
imported post
On Feb 25th you stated this:
tspgo_com wrote:
tspgo_com wrote:
I will stay 100% I unless it drops below the 10 DMA
On Feb 25th you stated this:
tspgo_com wrote:
and today you state this
tspgo_com wrote:
This is nearly 2 weeks of gains for the I fund and has set a new high three times since the 25th. I have been noticing a trend of about 3-4 days of increase followed by a drop then back to the 3-4 days of increase.The I fund has droped to the lower trend line 3 times in the last30 days and has rebounded every time.
I will stay 100% I unless it drops below the 10 DMA
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
imported post
Well, looks like you called that one on the money Coolhand, good job!:^We'll see tomorrow.Woof!
nnuut,I do not see the dollar gaining any strength tomorrow. If Friday's trade report comes in like expected, that is an increase in the trade deficit, I expect the dollar will take another hit. I see no reason for the trade deficit to be good news. We are not an export country. But, foreign equities won't like that news either. They are dependent on our economy to keep the global market going.
Watch the foreign market tonight. I bet it drops like our domestics did today. I also expect our domestics to drop again tomorrow. Don't forget about oil. It's taking its toll on equities right now. Even a good inventory report didn't help (lower dollar is the reason).
If Friday's report comes in showing a widening trade balance...another sell-off could ensue. Question is, how far are we going to drop? FOMC looms on the horizon.
I will say this, the "I" fund is probably a better short term play than either "C" or "S" right now.
Just my thoughts. I'm not an economist (not that they're any help).
Good Luck!
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Dollar is a little firmer this evening ahead of the trade report. As goes the trade report so may follow the dollar. Report will be released 8:30 in the morning, an hour before the opening bell.
http://tinyurl.com/6aw3o
Futures marketis pretty flat.
Dollar is a little firmer this evening ahead of the trade report. As goes the trade report so may follow the dollar. Report will be released 8:30 in the morning, an hour before the opening bell.
http://tinyurl.com/6aw3o
Futures marketis pretty flat.
imported post
Coolhand, good morning. The dollar may firm in the short term but the truth of the matter is that the $ will weaken for a long time to come. Only those that travel to Europe see that as a problem. Now, we love our dollar. But our dollar does not know us. Dollar will weaken minimum 7% this CY which means an equal kicker to the I fund (an equal fund to the stong C and S). The historic charts of the funds reflect such over the past 2 years - equal strength and dollar weakness. We have a great economy and I see job growth during the next 2 month reports. I'm out to G Jun unless something dramatic occurs. Tom has called the market well according to historic charts / data. But it has been erratic because Warren has been played against the dollar, so the weak hands are not there. I just think the I fund and patience are the current and near future play. We areconsumers and remain such becauseour economy is in great shape! Appreciate your charts and your plays. I am sticking to a steady hand only because I do not see the steady growth waves experienced during Nov - Jan where one can jump back and forth. Right now, one can leave I fund for a seeminly better near-term C or S fund opportunity only to get hit by a surprice increase somewhere. Patience and lets see if we can get the 8% annual growth plus 7% kicker. I would be very happy with this come 31 Dec!!!
Nice morning - work!! Thanks Tom, I see you in G trying to give best advice - and you are!
Coolhand, good morning. The dollar may firm in the short term but the truth of the matter is that the $ will weaken for a long time to come. Only those that travel to Europe see that as a problem. Now, we love our dollar. But our dollar does not know us. Dollar will weaken minimum 7% this CY which means an equal kicker to the I fund (an equal fund to the stong C and S). The historic charts of the funds reflect such over the past 2 years - equal strength and dollar weakness. We have a great economy and I see job growth during the next 2 month reports. I'm out to G Jun unless something dramatic occurs. Tom has called the market well according to historic charts / data. But it has been erratic because Warren has been played against the dollar, so the weak hands are not there. I just think the I fund and patience are the current and near future play. We areconsumers and remain such becauseour economy is in great shape! Appreciate your charts and your plays. I am sticking to a steady hand only because I do not see the steady growth waves experienced during Nov - Jan where one can jump back and forth. Right now, one can leave I fund for a seeminly better near-term C or S fund opportunity only to get hit by a surprice increase somewhere. Patience and lets see if we can get the 8% annual growth plus 7% kicker. I would be very happy with this come 31 Dec!!!
Nice morning - work!! Thanks Tom, I see you in G trying to give best advice - and you are!
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