03/27/26
One step forward, two steps back. The indices fell sharply on Thursday, keeping the streak of early weekly gains slipping away later in the week. That was actually the 9th negative Thursday in a row for the S&P 500. After the bell yesterday there was an announcement from Trump about pausing the Iranian power plant destruction. Oil futures went down, equity futures went up, but what will mean for today...?
In an announcement after the stock market closed, President Trump sent out a message saying, "I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time." Talks are ongoing and the stock market and its investors are at the mercy of these negotiations, at least in the short-term.
Meanwhile, the price of oil was up yesterday but there is some resistance near 95, and the announcement yesterday evening pushed the price downward...
... as this Oil ETF showed. The initial reaction after hours was quite dramatic, but oil quickly recovered much of that loss and was down just modestly.
Yields are moving with the price of oil and it is compounding the negative impact on the stock market. The 10-year Yield closed over 4.4% for the first time in a while yesterday, and it got there in a hurry.
I heard an analyst on TV sound a little overly concerned about the 2-year treasury Yield hitting 4%. While investors are concerned about any rapid moves in yields, 4% isn't any kind of magic level that hurts the stock market. It spent most of 2023 and 2024 above 4% and the stock did just fine, if not great, during that time, so it is a matter of concern over how quickly it is moving, and what portfolio managers will have to do in their accounts to adjust for these abrupt changes.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed at a new low for the year while testing last Friday's intraday lows. Still no high volume capitulation, although as we pointed out on Monday, last Friday's high volume sell off felt like capitulation, but it was actually a quarterly expiration Friday which is characterized by high trading volume - similar to the spike in trading volume during December's expiration Friday.
There's no positive movement coming the from the PMO momentum indicator yet, but if we squint our eyes, we can see that the MACD has been making higher lows despite the lowest close on the S&P 500, so that might be considered a positive divergence, but that is grasping at straws.
The Transportation index was down just 0.39% showing some relative strength, and while down modestly and closing below the 20-day average again, it didn't really back off from that resistance. It's still hanging around. Again, grasping for clues of a low, but the action remains bleak elsewhere.
Whether you are in stocks or not, we're all at risk of the volatility. If you're in stocks, we could continue to see this market act poorly with a possible capitulation-like sell off coming due where the Dow has one of those 1000-point loss plus kind of days. If you're out of stocks it would not be unusual in this type of market to see a 1000-point move in the other direction for a day or two, if and when something gets resolved. And with our TSP delays in execution of our trades, it makes it that much tougher, so I can't imagine that anyone is comfortable right now.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) was doing so well in the morning as it went positive and was holding at the 200-day average, but it lost that. Unlike the S&P 500, this index is still above the recent lows, and there's an outside chance here that, if it can hold, we still have a "V" bottom on this chart. Stop laughing! I believe it is holding up a little better because of the number of oil and oil services companies that are in the S-fund.
ACWX (I-fund) took another hit on Thursday losing over 2% on the day. The dollar was up, oil was up, and yields were up, and that's been the recipe for disaster in this once hot TSP fund.
BND (bonds / F-fund) closed at it lowest level in many months as it tested last November's lows. I am still wondering where the safety trade is going if not bonds or gold?
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
One step forward, two steps back. The indices fell sharply on Thursday, keeping the streak of early weekly gains slipping away later in the week. That was actually the 9th negative Thursday in a row for the S&P 500. After the bell yesterday there was an announcement from Trump about pausing the Iranian power plant destruction. Oil futures went down, equity futures went up, but what will mean for today...?
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
In an announcement after the stock market closed, President Trump sent out a message saying, "I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time." Talks are ongoing and the stock market and its investors are at the mercy of these negotiations, at least in the short-term.
Meanwhile, the price of oil was up yesterday but there is some resistance near 95, and the announcement yesterday evening pushed the price downward...
... as this Oil ETF showed. The initial reaction after hours was quite dramatic, but oil quickly recovered much of that loss and was down just modestly.
Yields are moving with the price of oil and it is compounding the negative impact on the stock market. The 10-year Yield closed over 4.4% for the first time in a while yesterday, and it got there in a hurry.
I heard an analyst on TV sound a little overly concerned about the 2-year treasury Yield hitting 4%. While investors are concerned about any rapid moves in yields, 4% isn't any kind of magic level that hurts the stock market. It spent most of 2023 and 2024 above 4% and the stock did just fine, if not great, during that time, so it is a matter of concern over how quickly it is moving, and what portfolio managers will have to do in their accounts to adjust for these abrupt changes.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) closed at a new low for the year while testing last Friday's intraday lows. Still no high volume capitulation, although as we pointed out on Monday, last Friday's high volume sell off felt like capitulation, but it was actually a quarterly expiration Friday which is characterized by high trading volume - similar to the spike in trading volume during December's expiration Friday.
There's no positive movement coming the from the PMO momentum indicator yet, but if we squint our eyes, we can see that the MACD has been making higher lows despite the lowest close on the S&P 500, so that might be considered a positive divergence, but that is grasping at straws.
The Transportation index was down just 0.39% showing some relative strength, and while down modestly and closing below the 20-day average again, it didn't really back off from that resistance. It's still hanging around. Again, grasping for clues of a low, but the action remains bleak elsewhere.
Whether you are in stocks or not, we're all at risk of the volatility. If you're in stocks, we could continue to see this market act poorly with a possible capitulation-like sell off coming due where the Dow has one of those 1000-point loss plus kind of days. If you're out of stocks it would not be unusual in this type of market to see a 1000-point move in the other direction for a day or two, if and when something gets resolved. And with our TSP delays in execution of our trades, it makes it that much tougher, so I can't imagine that anyone is comfortable right now.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) was doing so well in the morning as it went positive and was holding at the 200-day average, but it lost that. Unlike the S&P 500, this index is still above the recent lows, and there's an outside chance here that, if it can hold, we still have a "V" bottom on this chart. Stop laughing! I believe it is holding up a little better because of the number of oil and oil services companies that are in the S-fund.
ACWX (I-fund) took another hit on Thursday losing over 2% on the day. The dollar was up, oil was up, and yields were up, and that's been the recipe for disaster in this once hot TSP fund.
BND (bonds / F-fund) closed at it lowest level in many months as it tested last November's lows. I am still wondering where the safety trade is going if not bonds or gold?
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
