03/25/26
Stocks were mixed yesterday, but mostly lower after another final hour sell off took most indices into the red, after flirting with midday gains. Higher oil prices kept the pressure on, but there were some changes after hours. Small caps did manage to close slightly positive and the I-fund took another hit with the dollar up.
Reports after the closing bell yesterday of a possible cease fire in the Middle East sent oil prices lower in after hours trading, and depending on how this plays / played out on Tuesday night, nothing else might matter - at least for a day or two. The decline after hours in oil took away the gains from Tuesday's day time trading.
That said, the market's path of least resistance has been down lately, and it will take some kind of change in the geopolitical environment to see that path change. When it happens, we don't know, but the reaction will likely be forceful, even if temporary.
The safe way to play it is to wait for an all's clear and a better chart set up, and the aggressive way to play it would be to be anticipatory. If the latter and wrong, you're going to take some losses. If correct, the reward may be very good for your account. So, it is a matter of your tolerance for risk at this point in your savings life.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) tried to rally a couple of times yesterday, but that 200-day average swatted it back down each time. On the other hand, the index held its lows for a couple of days, so whether this is a test of that low, or the start of another leg lower, remains to be seen. It may all depend on whether the rumored ceasefire is real and if the price off oil moves lower on the news.
The 10-year Treasury Yield made a higher intraday high yesterday, but it closed just below last Friday's close. The inverted head and shoulders pattern breakout actually reached its initial upside target already. Did that negative kangaroo tail reversal indicate a change is coming?
The bond market is concerned about inflation due to the price of oil. The ceasefire, if true, could reverse oil and yields lower (bonds and the F-fund higher?)
The Dow Transportation Index had a nice day but it remains stuck in its range between the 20 and 100-day moving averages. Something is going to have to give. That could be a bear flag, but if there is a ceasefire and the price of oil does fall, this would almost certainly break to the upside.
The charts aren't showing signs of a bottom yet, and that means rallies on good news should not be trusted until the charts improve enough to change the technical outlook. Unfortunately, by the time that happens, being on the sidelines could be costly and the decision of whether to chase or not would start to come into your head. So again, what's your risk tolerance? Are you more concerned about losing more money, or of missing out on a big snap back rally?
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) battled its 200-day average again yesterday, but couldn't quite close back above it. The small gain was a sign of relative strength, but if you've been in the S-fund for any length of time, you know the high beta swings could propel, or crush you, so one day doesn't mean that much. If this can hold above last Friday's low and start closing above 2456 again (200-day avg.), we may have something here.
ACWX (I-fund) took another hit yesterday but the lows yesterday were at the bottom of that open gap from the start of the year. The 200-day average is a little lower, and that may need to get tested first, otherwise, yesterday's lows near 67 would be a good place for this to find support.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again as yields get stubbornly high on the rising price of oil. Is there a cease fire coming? That could trigger a nice rebound here.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed yesterday, but mostly lower after another final hour sell off took most indices into the red, after flirting with midday gains. Higher oil prices kept the pressure on, but there were some changes after hours. Small caps did manage to close slightly positive and the I-fund took another hit with the dollar up.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
Reports after the closing bell yesterday of a possible cease fire in the Middle East sent oil prices lower in after hours trading, and depending on how this plays / played out on Tuesday night, nothing else might matter - at least for a day or two. The decline after hours in oil took away the gains from Tuesday's day time trading.
That said, the market's path of least resistance has been down lately, and it will take some kind of change in the geopolitical environment to see that path change. When it happens, we don't know, but the reaction will likely be forceful, even if temporary.
The safe way to play it is to wait for an all's clear and a better chart set up, and the aggressive way to play it would be to be anticipatory. If the latter and wrong, you're going to take some losses. If correct, the reward may be very good for your account. So, it is a matter of your tolerance for risk at this point in your savings life.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) tried to rally a couple of times yesterday, but that 200-day average swatted it back down each time. On the other hand, the index held its lows for a couple of days, so whether this is a test of that low, or the start of another leg lower, remains to be seen. It may all depend on whether the rumored ceasefire is real and if the price off oil moves lower on the news.
The 10-year Treasury Yield made a higher intraday high yesterday, but it closed just below last Friday's close. The inverted head and shoulders pattern breakout actually reached its initial upside target already. Did that negative kangaroo tail reversal indicate a change is coming?
The bond market is concerned about inflation due to the price of oil. The ceasefire, if true, could reverse oil and yields lower (bonds and the F-fund higher?)
The Dow Transportation Index had a nice day but it remains stuck in its range between the 20 and 100-day moving averages. Something is going to have to give. That could be a bear flag, but if there is a ceasefire and the price of oil does fall, this would almost certainly break to the upside.
The charts aren't showing signs of a bottom yet, and that means rallies on good news should not be trusted until the charts improve enough to change the technical outlook. Unfortunately, by the time that happens, being on the sidelines could be costly and the decision of whether to chase or not would start to come into your head. So again, what's your risk tolerance? Are you more concerned about losing more money, or of missing out on a big snap back rally?
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) battled its 200-day average again yesterday, but couldn't quite close back above it. The small gain was a sign of relative strength, but if you've been in the S-fund for any length of time, you know the high beta swings could propel, or crush you, so one day doesn't mean that much. If this can hold above last Friday's low and start closing above 2456 again (200-day avg.), we may have something here.
ACWX (I-fund) took another hit yesterday but the lows yesterday were at the bottom of that open gap from the start of the year. The 200-day average is a little lower, and that may need to get tested first, otherwise, yesterday's lows near 67 would be a good place for this to find support.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down again as yields get stubbornly high on the rising price of oil. Is there a cease fire coming? That could trigger a nice rebound here.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
