Oil Slick Stuff

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I've been trying to warn people about Chavez and CITGO for a couple of years, Look at what we have down in South America now. Building a WAR Machine with the help of our old Friends from the USSR. Which country will he annex frist? My money is on Columbia!!:nuts:
 
Gas shortages: get ready for more

The long lines and closed pumps seen across the South this week are a warning: inventories are way too low.

By Brian O'Keefe, senior editor
September 26, 2008: 1:29 PM ET

tennessee_gas.ap.03.jpg
Sign of the future? A Nashville gas station earlier this week had nothing left to pump.

(Fortune) -- While Congress and Bush administration officials have been working to complete a bailout plan and stem the financial contagion on Wall Street, a different kind of economic crisis emerged across the South this week: A severe, hurricane-related gasoline shortage has curtailed trucking from Atlanta to Asheville, N.C., and created a wave of panic buying among motorists.

The return of gas lines has largely flown under the radar of politicians who are usually keenly attuned, because their constituents are, to what's going on at the pump. But more of the Capitol gang should be paying attention to this.
That's because nationwide our gasoline inventory is shockingly low. Liquidity must be restored soon to this market, or we could be facing a crippling run on the gasoline bank. And if you think Americans are outraged about Wall Street, wait until their Main Street grocery store doesn't get the bread and milk delivery for a week or two.
Back to the '70s [more]
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/26/new...eefe.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008092613
 
James48843 said:
Man, did the reporter (and the analysts) ever get that wrong.

She just reported refineries were at 66.7% of their operable capacity.

That's simply wrong.

Only 36% of pre-hurricane production is back at normal levels. And some refineries are not yet even ready to restart - a process that takes some time.

The categories being tracked are:
1. Out of service
2. Restarting
3. Reduced runs
4. Normal production.


She just reported 66.7% of production.

While, this morning, Energy Department reports just 36% production back to normal.


She obviously has the number confused with how much CRUDE OIL is being produced out in the Gulf. And that statistic is not good either.​


The news articles talking about reduced inventories are simply the existing inventories are being consumed while workmen (and workwomen) race to repair the damages, and get things back on line.​

that's the race we're in right now- which will happen first-​

Will the stockpiles run out, and we run out of gas first, or...​

Will the workers get the damage repairs, and platforms and refineries back into production before we totally run out.​

That's the question.​


The race is on.​
Click to expand...


The race continues. Which will it be? Will inventories run out before repairs are finsihed and gasoline is being made again, or will the repairs be done and inventories hold up.

Hint: Inventories are FINITE. They DO have a limit.

Folks- you are going to see some real discomfort soon.

I give it four, maybe five more days, before we run into REAL problems. We won't SEE the problem just then, but it will be set in stone.


If production is not on-line by then, we will get a gap. A gap between the production capability, and the use of gasoline.

And in that gap, no fuel will be available in many areas. When inventories in current storage run out- it will not be pretty.


I have no idea how LONG the gap will last. But when it hits (perhaps 7-10 days for it really to show up big time), it will be bad for those who burn gasoline only.

(p.s.- I drive E85, not gasoline. You should too. :-)

My prediction- if repairs can't match need, we'll have a shortage on the order of 5 million barrels of gasoline a day, and it will hit late next week. Perahps as many as five or six states will be "out of gasoline" by the end of next week.



Mark it down.
 
Georgia and North Carolina are starting to feel the pinch of the gas shortage that is about to hit:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/09/26/gas.shortage.roundup/

CHeck out that link- already some stories of violence connected to the gas shortage.

"Police also are monitoring stations that do have gas after reports of fights at pumps between drivers accusing each other of cutting in line.
"It's been a nightmare for everybody," one driver, who found gas Thursday, told the station. Read WHNS report on how the shortage is affecting North Carolina "
 
Nnuut,
Heard of this, or posted on it previously?

3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911 Released: 4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM, Reston, VA -

North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation.
A U.S. Geological Survey assessment, released April 10, shows a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered compared to the agency's 1995 estimate of 151 million barrels of oil.

...Five continuous assessment units (AU) were identified and assessed in the Bakken Formation of North Dakota and Montana - the Elm Coulee-Billings Nose AU, the Central Basin-Poplar Dome AU, the Nesson-Little Knife Structural AU, the Eastern Expulsion Threshold AU, and the Northwest Expulsion Threshold AU.
At the time of the assessment, a limited number of wells have produced oil from three of the assessments units in Central Basin-Poplar Dome, Eastern Expulsion Threshold, and Northwest Expulsion Threshold.
The Elm Coulee oil field in Montana, discovered in 2000, has produced about 65 million barrels of the 105 million barrels of oil recovered from the Bakken Formation.
Results of the assessment can be found at http://energy.usgs.gov.
For a podcast interview with scientists about the Bakken Formation, listen to episode 38 of CoreCast at http://www.usgs.gov/corecast/.

The following was also forwarded me in an email that provided the following (that I have not personally verified):

The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable... at $107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.

'When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea.' says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst.

'This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years,' reports The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It's a formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the 'Bakken.' And it stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada. For years, U.S.oil exploration has been considered a dead end. Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken's massive reserves... and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL!

That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 41 years straight.

[And if THAT didn't throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from TWO YEARS AGO, people!]

U.S.Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World!
Stansberry Report Online - 4/20/2006 Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction.
They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates

HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this!? (Think its because America's become dependent of foreign oil?)

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East -more than 2 TRILLION barrels. Untapped. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post. :blink:
 
hessian said:
Nnuut,
Heard of this, or posted on it previously?

3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911 Released: 4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM, Reston, VA -

North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation.
Click to expand...

Yes it's there, but they never mention DRILLING there or on land with the exception of Alaska. Why are the not pressing for more exploration on the Continent? Why do they ignore this wealth of Oil right here in the USA? Are we trying to save it to use when/if the BIG CRUNCH comes? This is probably one that the TREE HUGGERS are most opposed to and would have no chance passing? I wonder if Sarah Palin knows about this?
LIKE I'VE SAID ON MANY OCCASION "THERE IS NO OIL SHORTAGE"! DRILL BABY DRILL!! oilrig1.gif
 
nnuut said:
Yes it's there, but they never mention DRILLING there or on land with the exception of Alaska. Why are the not pressing for more exploration on the Continent? Why do they ignore this wealth of Oil right here in the USA? Are we trying to save it to use when/if the BIG CRUNCH comes? This is probably one that the TREE HUGGERS are most opposed to and would have no chance passing? I wonder if Sarah Palin knows about this?
LIKE I'VE SAID ON MANY OCCASION "THERE IS NO OIL SHORTAGE"!
Click to expand...
Hey Nnuut,
I think laying the blame at tree-huggers is too convenient - I say its something more nefarious - like BIG OIL! (& profitability!) :sick:
 
hessian said:
Hey Nnuut,
I think laying the blame at tree-huggers is too convenient - I say its something more nefarious - like BIG OIL! (& profitability!) :sick:
Click to expand...

I REALLY SHOULD NOT PUT THE BLAME ON THEM, THIS IS TRUE. WHO IS TO BLAME, why not a peep from Liberals or Conservatives? What are they hiding? Come on people use your GOD GIVEN BRAINS!! THINK!!:cool:
............................WHY? IT'S THERE!oilrig2.gif
 
They don't want to report loudly about oil in the continental US because it's easier to get people excited about getting oil offshore or from the land being hogged by those evil caribou than to try to get everyone excited about something that may be hard to extract and potentially in someone's backyard or on federal grazing land, cause big mining eyesores or new floodplains, or some other darn complication. It's like trying to sell a power generation plant or a refinery - no one wants to "own" them, or hear about needing them.

Refinery Refinery! nope I don't hear anyone cheering along with me.
 
I took a graduate level natural resource economics class a lot of years ago now, before my fed career started. One entire course section was on oil. A key concept I carried away with me from that course, was that it makes good econ sense for the nation to use up other country's resources first, before we use up our own. that way we're never at a complete resource availability disadvantage relative to other supplier countries. Some of our supplies are always held in reserve for the crunch times when they arrive. Hence the Strategic Reserves around the country.

Another key concept I carried away w/me, was that we'll never replace oil completely, or even fully develop alternative energy technologies to widely commercial level, until cost-effectiveness evens out and cost balance shifts between oil and the alternatives. As long as oil-based energy is cheaper, we won't make the transition.
 
True, but the problem now is most oil is nationalized under government control - not subject to the laws of supply and demand and company revenues and risk management. This doesn't fit the usual economic model where you can buy someone's mine or ore and let them deplete resources, governments don't have the same motives as businesses, as they will always count themselves and/or their country depending if they just skim off the cream for themselves or not, first. Oil is a side business. Also, oil price is based on a dollar valued market price, not by contract, so there isn't microeconomic (firm to firm) based pricing.
 
Hmm, I thought that was my point w/first paragraph. Are you referring to the tradeoffs between oil and alt. energy?
 
hessian said:
Nnuut,
Heard of this, or posted on it previously?

3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana’s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911 Released: 4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM, Reston, VA -



U.S.Oil Discovery- Largest Reserve in the World!
Stansberry Report Online - 4/20/2006 Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction.
They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates

HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this!? (Think its because America's become dependent of foreign oil?)

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East -more than 2 TRILLION barrels. Untapped. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post. :blink:
Click to expand...

The North Dakota/Montana oil finds ARE being drilled - there is a huge oil boom going on now, and has been all year.

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2007/12/02/news/local/news04.txt

But with the oil boom comes some drawbacks for locals as well:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-09-09-dakota-drilling_N.htm

North Dakot'a is producing now about 160,000 barrels of oil per day:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/08/north-dakota-bakken-oil-hitting.html

IN fact- there was an oil boom there back in 1984, when the first of these reserves were discovered.

The new discovery has had, shall we say, INTERESTING affects already. Included in those is the declaration of succession by the Lakotah Indian Nation- http://www.commondreams.org/news2007/1220-02.htm
and http://www.republicoflakotah.com/

They say they are withdrawing from the United States- under provisions of treaties signed in the 1800's, because the U.S. failed to meet it's obligations under the treaties. And, United Nations law and treaties we have signed and ratified seem to support their position.

And the boundaries claimed by the newly established "Republic of Lakotah " encompass the majority of the new oil fields.

This could get interesting.

If you read the fine print of their treaties- they seem to be fully within their rights.
 
Hey James ,
Thanks for that reply. I was wondering with so much lands under Native People's jurisdiction, if that would have some/many implications. Regardless, there should be some compromises that you'ld think could be worked out.
Wonder why everything has to be a fight - I guess its whenever $$ is involved, unfortunately.

I still think that cheap, or even free energy, is being lobbied against by BIG OIL - its them that dependant on the Oil (rather its the profits that they're dependant on). :sick:
VR ;)
 
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