7/13/12
Stocks were hit hard early yesterday (Thursday), but climbed back respectably with some indices bouncing nicely off of support lines and the 200-day EMA. The Dow lost 31 on the day.
[TABLE="width: 90%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 241"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.004%[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD] +0.07%[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD] - 1.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
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It was a rough week for stocks and now it ends with a Friday the 13th, after 6-consecutive down days. I don't know if there are any historical stats for Friday the 13th, but as you will see below, today is the 9th trading day of July and it is historically very positive for some reason.
The S&P 500 closed in a lot better position than it was in earlier in the morning. You can see that, except for the 200-day EMA, the S&P broke below almost all support intraday yesterday before recovering.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We saw a few charts make a dramatic reversal finding support right at the 200-day EMA.
The Nasdaq did it...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
And the small caps of the Russell 2000 tested the 200-day EMA, then proceeded to close above the 50 and 20-day EMA's as well.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
A strong argument can be made for a relief rally here based on the charts and some of the oversold indicators. Whether that will be more than a relief rally, keeping the intermediate-term uptrend alive, remains to be seen.
However, seasonality remains weak for the next week or so... except for today's (trading day #9) freakishly, historically bullish day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
I'll look for some upside in the coming days. I just don't know if I want to use an IFT to buy just yet. We have some much better seasonality coming toward the end of the month.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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