NSurf9 Account Talk

[nasa1974]

1000% - Now, that's what I'm talking about.

No, I haven't bailed out of "I," but I would have been smart to have done so. The quick plunging sinker makes the hook hard to get out.

Did I mention how short, Long is? I would have bailed to "G" on June 5, with 40 cents as a salvage - but, then I would be finished for the month.

NSurf, I feel your pain. The same thing happened to me in 2007. It took me 6 months to recover my losses. (I wasn't wise to the the MB back in "07") Unfortunately the FRTIB has put us in a situation where we can no longer recover as quickly as we used to. Nor do I believe that most of us will be able to really retire with a nice LARGE TSP now that we only have two real moves. The FRTIB's decision has put all of us in a position to manage our retirement fund that will have smaller profits and larger losses. In todays market you have to have more flexiblity to manage your money, not more restrictions. The FRTIB has punished us for Barclay's failings. SORRY I'M PREACHING!!! Off my soapbox :embarrest: Hanging out in the I just shows your human. :laugh: Your still one of the leaders to follow in my book. GL

 

[luv2read]

It's all a plot to keep us FERS boomers working longer so they don't have to deal with recruitment and fixing SS.
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[nasa1974]

It's all a plot to keep us FERS boomers working longer so they don't have to deal with recruitment and fixing SS.
​

That gives the FRTIB too much credit

 

[Gumby]

1000% - Now, that's what I'm talking about.

No, I haven't bailed out of "I," but I would have been smart to have done so. The quick plunging sinker makes the hook hard to get out.

Did I mention how short, Long is? I would have bailed to "G" on June 5, with 40 cents as a salvage - but, then I would be finished for the month.

nsurf9,

How many more down days is the I fund going to have? What rapid 7% drop from the highs last Thursday. I went in 80% into I today. Maybe the stronger dollar won't squeeze the I down much more. I am looking for a bounce and then back to the Lilly pad for the rest of June.

 

[nsurf9]

The next to the last thing I want is to be whipsawed. The last is, to hang-on to more losses.

Looks like I'll go to the bottom with this one. The drop has been pretty brutal in the "I" fund - - and it could drop even further. The US equities could also continue to drop as a result of mortgages, oil and now inflation (interest rate hikes ((you think real estate has dropped, now)) and Israel's potential attack on Iran before the US Presidential election.

Back on June 5, I noticed that the "I" fund lagged behind the "S" and "C" funds. Also, I noticed the rising trend in the value of the dollar. Nonetheless, I, like some others, thought equities might continue up for a short while and I’d then move to "G" as it approached the next resistance level.

Unfortunately, instead of an upward trend moving from about the $24/"I"share to $25.5/"I" share resistance level, the "I" fund has moved down - 5.67% since 6/2; 6.41 since 6/6 - principally because of price of oil (and the US unemployment rate). As a result, where the "C" and "S" had gained some profit cushion, the "I" fund did not - the result is a more significant loss in the "I" fund, compounded by recent dollar strength.

Had I moved to "G" on June 5, I would have, of course, been automatically relegated to "G" for the rest of June. But, even then, I would have been very careful to generally be out of equities until October, unless I saw a precipitous drop like what I have experience since June 5, plus some.

 

[Gumby]

The 2 IFT limit sure makes it hard to pull the sell trigger and move back to G. This has made it a challenge to lock in profit or limit losses.
Good Luck...you have had a phenomenal run so far this year. Keep it up

 

[Fivetears]

You have built yourself quite a cushion. :nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

Hey my friend,
The week is over and I just checked things out.

We're as even as I've ever seen: I'm -11% something and your +11% something

For me it is no big deal - seriously - I could care less because I'm fully invested in the S Fund. So I won't sell until I make a profit and if it really dives a whole lot then I'll buy a whole lot more.

But I'm more concerned with you my man - cause you had just barely under 20% (it seems like yesterday).
So want to run a few things by you:
1) You are still the undisputed CHAMP
2) I admire you for not going crazy - bailing at the bottom - and showing you can take it.

For even the very best - these moments happen my friend - so be cool and be real and let it happen and you'll end up with more than what you lost.

Later bro - and a wonderful weekend to all the MB

A special "Happy Father's Day" - to all the dads on board

Steadygain

 

[nnuut]

SG is this a return, or did you lose money? They should call you David Copperfield. Copper is worth the price of gold now! Just kidding, really nice to hear from you.

 

[Steadygain]

SG is this a return, or did you lose money? They should call you David Copperfield. Copper is worth the price of gold now! Just kidding, really nice to hear from you.

Thanks Norm,
I won't have the opportunity to return fully to the MB for about another month.

NOW - DID I LOSE MONEY?? determines on how you look at things. I bought 100% S Fund when I thought a downward trend had finally ended and on the first day of what I thought would be the beginning of an upward trend. But the S Fund DOVE way below where I initially bought (SO THE VALUE OF THE SHARES IS A LOT LOWER). But I have the SAME NUMBER OF SHARES.

From my persepective I can't lose if I don't sell at a loss. This is one time where I absolutely refuse to let the Market beat me. So all contributions will go to G Fund. If S Fund has another bottom to reach - say another 10 to 15% - then will rollover personal accounts into the TSP and buy 100% S Fund.

Anyway - that's a long answer - but NO - I have not lost and there is no way I will let my last ITF take from the overall pot of gold. I don't get mad - I get even. So if the S Fund thinks it's going to burn me, it's in for a big surprise.

Rarely - I get an opportunity during the week to briefly check out the MB. I figured Nsurf9 probably took the loss (or momentary decline in the value of his shares) harder than me. At least putting myself in his place - if was just barely under 20% and the next time I check on things I'm 11% (the politically correct way of expressing my reaction would be WOW - that is a REAL (female dog).

Nsurf9, you did make a good gain Friday.

Well HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!! to all the dads out there.

 

[nsurf9]

Hope you all had a very nice Fathers' Day, I certainly did.

And SG, yes, that smarts, but I appreciate the empathic words. I was hoping to close on 20% and get out for the summer - unless an unquestionable dip materialized.

But, being a little cavalier, I blew-off how quick the dollar might rise. And, the fact that the I fund was lagging behind the US equities that had crested and the still low I fund could be pulled even further down by the falling US equities. And finally, I didn't have the IFT's available to get off and back on the tracks.

Fact is, even at the current low for all the TSP equities and recent small tick upward, I'm still skeptical about this being a true upturn. Today's NY mfg index figures bear this out.

The thing that really p.. m.. off (teaches) me, is that I knew I should have stayed in G - "unless an unquestionable dip materialized."

I rushed it.

Just another lesson on quick, patient, and the seasonal indexes of equities. I really need to get into funds that allow me to move at will, or least daily.

 

[Steadygain]

The thing that really p.. m.. off (teaches) me, is that I knew I should have stayed in G
I rushed it.

Me too - my friend. Totally there with ya.

Was feeling on top of the world staying in G and did not wait for stability to prove itself.

As long as we learn - we're better off in the long run.

 

[Birchtree]

I've been learning since 1971 and I'm still learning. The markets and cycles are always dynamic and constantly changing and that's the challenge. History does at times repeat but not always - interpreting the future as it might apply today is the game to win. And often times being right and sitting tight will provide the gains. Time in the market is often more rewarding than timing the market - so they say.

 

[nsurf9]

I don't mind the cycles and unexpected events - I just hate having the TSP Board tying my shoe laces tied together when I need to run like heck.

I could make the one-time distribution at 55 in 2 years, but my understanding is that I would have to quit (defer-retire) the Gov.

 

[FogSailing]

I tend to agree with you Birch. My B&H experiment of buy 50 stocks, hold 50 G for the year has proven to be a success (at least in my mind). I've made one poor choice to F for 2days and got whacked a little (poor timing on my part - wasn't watching the yield curve close enough), but all in all, the B&H strategy has kept me at break even ths year. Obviously, I'd like that 12% or better return, but given the situation, I'm not complaining. Best of luck to you, Steady, nSurf, and all the other members of this community.

FS

 

[nasa1974]

Hey all,

I posted this on squalebears account, but something we need to think about doing. This information talks about the NASA Inspector General but the labor department has one also. We need to work to get control of our accounts again.

This just came in from NASA Shared Services. I think a few of us need to make a phone call or two. Especially those that got strongarmed. It talks about the NASA Inspector General but I am pretty sure that there is an OIG in the labor department.

Whistleblower Disclosures

The Whistleblower Protection Act of 1989 provides the right for every employee to make Whistleblower disclosures and ensures protection from reprisal.

Whistleblower protection applies to disclosures that a government employee makes about:
· Violations of laws, rules or regulations
· Gross mismanagement
· Gross waste of funds
· Abuse of authority
· Substantial and specific danger to public health and safety

The protection of federal employee whistleblowers falls within the province of the Office of Special Counsel (OSC), an independent agency. Whistleblowers must make their disclosures to OSC in writing. To facilitate this process, OSC has developed the Whistleblower Disclosure Form (OSC-12, Disclosure of Information) which may be used to file a disclosure. Use of the form is not mandatory. However, if you do not use the form, it is important to include your name, address and telephone numbers. The Role of the U.S. Office of Special Counsel pamphlet (http://www.osc.gov/documents/pubs/oscrole.pdf) contains valuable information, as well as telephone numbers for reporting purposes.

Federal employees have the right to be free from prohibited personnel practices, including retaliation for whistle blowing. For further information, please access the OSC's Web site at http://www.osc.gov

In addition to the OSC, NASA's Office of Inspector General (OIG) is also mandated to root out fraud, waste and abuse. The OIG investigates matters that are most important in protecting taxpayers' investments, while ensuring that those who raise the issues are protected from reprisal. For more information about the OIG, please visit: http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/oig/hq/hotline.html

 

[Gumby]

NSurf9

You have nerves of steel holding 100% I fund for the month of June. I have been on that sinking ship also and have lost all the gains I had made for the year. Do you think tomorrow will be the bounce we have been waiting for? I am thinking about going 100%I for tomorrow and chance the ECB raising interest rates. Have you changed your mind on this fund and is jumping 100% I fund a good idea at this point?

 

[fedgolfer]

NSurf9

You have nerves of steel holding 100% I fund for the month of June. I have been on that sinking ship also and have lost all the gains I had made for the year. Do you think tomorrow will be the bounce we have been waiting for? I am thinking about going 100%I for tomorrow if the ECB raises rates. Have you changed your mind on this fund and is jumping 100% I fund a good idea at this point?

I thought raising rates puts inflation fighting in front of spurring growth... bad for stocks. Even though it means stronger Euro?

 

[Gumby]

I thought raising rates puts inflation fighting in front of spurring growth... bad for stocks. Even though it means stronger Euro?

I am not sure how this will turn out. The weaker dollar should help the I fund but if oil jumps because of a weaker dollar that may outweigh any benefit. If ECB does raise rates I am not sure if that will push the FEDs hand and raise rates to curb inflation here at home.
Birchtree does not think ECB will raise rates. He may be 100% correct.

 

[fedgolfer]

I am not sure how this will turn out. The weaker dollar should help the I fund but if oil jumps because of a weaker dollar that may outweigh any benefit. If ECB does raise rates I am not sure if that will push the FEDs hand and raise rates to curb inflation here at home.
Birchtree does not think ECB will raise rates. He may be 100% correct.

That, to me, sounds better for the market in terms of a rebound.