-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
NSurf9 Account Talk
- Thread starter nsurf9
- Start date
nsurf9
Member
Its "sell in May" vs wasting your last May IFT and get passed up on the Bull-train.
I can only answer on my count. I would have burned the IFT and moved to G at noon today, 5/22, and pocketed the 1% this evening, and then wait until June for new IFTs.
Birch believes we are approaching a bull market. I do too, but that are lots wind coming from several directions. The question is how soon. Oil (commodities), mortgage seizure and inflation are on the short-range scope and are likely to continue to cause difficulty on a bull run. Hurricans are a little futher out and the presid election a little further again
Though I would probably move out to (G) today, I believe enough damage done has been done in the last 2 day that it helps the case to preserve that last IFT and catch the bull-train, or ditch back to (G) later.
Generally, though, my posture changes by season. I try to limit the number of days I'm exposure in equities. I note that last summer trend went uncharistically counter to the "sell in May..." saying. But, I am still wary of the saying and the statistics it represents. Thus, October - April, I want to be in equities (but get out to avoid loss); and, May - Sept, I want to be out (but get in to seek gain).
I can only answer on my count. I would have burned the IFT and moved to G at noon today, 5/22, and pocketed the 1% this evening, and then wait until June for new IFTs.
Birch believes we are approaching a bull market. I do too, but that are lots wind coming from several directions. The question is how soon. Oil (commodities), mortgage seizure and inflation are on the short-range scope and are likely to continue to cause difficulty on a bull run. Hurricans are a little futher out and the presid election a little further again
Though I would probably move out to (G) today, I believe enough damage done has been done in the last 2 day that it helps the case to preserve that last IFT and catch the bull-train, or ditch back to (G) later.
Generally, though, my posture changes by season. I try to limit the number of days I'm exposure in equities. I note that last summer trend went uncharistically counter to the "sell in May..." saying. But, I am still wary of the saying and the statistics it represents. Thus, October - April, I want to be in equities (but get out to avoid loss); and, May - Sept, I want to be out (but get in to seek gain).
nsurf9
Member
Thanks, Asylum.
I really would have preferred a 100S move, then 100I move - which is usually the better path after a 1% US drop. Also dollar is strengthening - making "I" less attractive. But, with the recent "I" fund still lagging behind the "S," I'll try to stay in equities for at least a little while. Then, thru "F" which is also lagging, back to "G" to use-up my "overly-generous" 2 IFTs.
My posture still is "be out in May-Oct and limit exposure." Get-in, only to catch the dips. Keep wary, though, this market may still buck-the-trend, like last summer, and make a summer-rally. The question is where is the best return for investment, RE, stocks, commodities or bonds?
So far, though, the "I" fund re-traced a small leg down from $24.66 5/21, to ~$24.04 5/31, for a anticipated loss of about $.62 cents. Albeit, the trend back up to $25.32 is stretching sideways some. I'll try to stay "I" for ~ $1 fund increase then, considering bailing to "F", then to "G". My question is will the already up "S" precipate a drop in the "I" that hasn't yet increased.
Next resistence point, climbing back up the "I" fund line to the high-12/07 period, is at about $25.32 - or about ($.92 to $1.32 profit) in "I" fund cents.
Still watching summer, hurricans, sell in May, oil, dollar
I really would have preferred a 100S move, then 100I move - which is usually the better path after a 1% US drop. Also dollar is strengthening - making "I" less attractive. But, with the recent "I" fund still lagging behind the "S," I'll try to stay in equities for at least a little while. Then, thru "F" which is also lagging, back to "G" to use-up my "overly-generous" 2 IFTs.
My posture still is "be out in May-Oct and limit exposure." Get-in, only to catch the dips. Keep wary, though, this market may still buck-the-trend, like last summer, and make a summer-rally. The question is where is the best return for investment, RE, stocks, commodities or bonds?
So far, though, the "I" fund re-traced a small leg down from $24.66 5/21, to ~$24.04 5/31, for a anticipated loss of about $.62 cents. Albeit, the trend back up to $25.32 is stretching sideways some. I'll try to stay "I" for ~ $1 fund increase then, considering bailing to "F", then to "G". My question is will the already up "S" precipate a drop in the "I" that hasn't yet increased.
Next resistence point, climbing back up the "I" fund line to the high-12/07 period, is at about $25.32 - or about ($.92 to $1.32 profit) in "I" fund cents.
Still watching summer, hurricans, sell in May, oil, dollar
Last edited:
fedgolfer
Well-known member
I went 100% S earlier this AM too. DWCP looks like its in a solid measured bull channel on the weekly charts since the BSC day... and just bounced off the support line on 5/23 and re-test on 5/27. Although, I feel like i'm chasing on what may end up a big green day. I hope this bullish action is not just setting up for kissing the channel goodbye if my trend lines aren't the real deal. Hope ADP will be in-line too.
McDuck
Well-known member
Nsurf9,
Your IFTs have been laser accurate.
With today's ~2% gains, what do you think about a person going to G tomorrow with intentions to come back in later in the month on the assumption that the stocks probably will go back down later in the month? (I have the full 2 IPTs left for the month).
Thanks,
Greg
Your IFTs have been laser accurate.
With today's ~2% gains, what do you think about a person going to G tomorrow with intentions to come back in later in the month on the assumption that the stocks probably will go back down later in the month? (I have the full 2 IPTs left for the month).
Thanks,
Greg
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Tom (help!!) - is there anyway we can boot this guy for some kind of illegal activity - I mean look at this he's like 20%
Most of the ones looking great are just beginning to climb the first branches of the trees - while this guy's up in the plane looking down with binoculars.
NSurf - you are one amazing dude.
Most of the ones looking great are just beginning to climb the first branches of the trees - while this guy's up in the plane looking down with binoculars.
NSurf - you are one amazing dude.
hessian
Member
Hey NSurf9,
You better check the Member Results (today
) - FiveTears is showing awesome gains year-to-date!! Beating yours...
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_returns.php
:laugh::nuts:
You better check the Member Results (today
) - FiveTears is showing awesome gains year-to-date!! Beating yours...http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_returns.php
:laugh::nuts:
EW_ret
Retired Tracker
Hey NSurf9,
You better check the Member Results (today
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_returns.php
:laugh::nuts:
Ocean noticed this huge return error for Five Tears yesterday. He will correct it by this weekend. Ocean has been working hard on the issue of occational return errors. Most of the time these errors are negative. In Five Tears case, the return error was huge to the up side. Wish I could get a 1,100% Daily return!!:cheesy:
nsurf9
Member
1000% - Now, that's what I'm talking about.
No, I haven't bailed out of "I," but I would have been smart to have done so. The quick plunging sinker makes the hook hard to get out.
Did I mention how short, Long is? I would have bailed to "G" on June 5, with 40 cents as a salvage - but, then I would be finished for the month.
No, I haven't bailed out of "I," but I would have been smart to have done so. The quick plunging sinker makes the hook hard to get out.
Did I mention how short, Long is? I would have bailed to "G" on June 5, with 40 cents as a salvage - but, then I would be finished for the month.
DAMN! :nuts: 
Hey NSurf9,
You better check the Member Results (today
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_balance_returns.php
This is some impressive work.
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=nsurf9
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_show.php?user=nsurf9
Similar threads
