NSurf9 Account Talk

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Thanks for the replys - thought I had cooties.

This banking confidence stuff (pun intended) is really shades of 1929-1933. Taking out several Fortune 500 companies is one thing. Wholesale errosion of the system is another. It is dangerous - and the Gov doesn't have and will never get enough money, if the real tsunami hits. And, putting money in the TSP is like trying to wash some clothes and getting your shirt sleeve caught in the ringer ... only it takes your whole family.

As of late, I believe the jig is up and it looks like Paulson and Bernake (and Bush) were trying to bail CEO execs and big corporate American first, then Main street would be ok, as a result. Main stree isn't stupid all of the time. And this time they will get a better deal and the "bad boys" will get (not get) their just rewards.

Personnally, I believe a Main Street first efforts needs to take place - reformation of notes by judges, cutting into mortgagees and mortgagors as equity deems appropriate. Internet buy, finance and sale of the dead wood assets to clear quickly for new growth. Investment by the Gov in corporate insolvents, after they write down the assests like the Swedes did, instead of what the Japanese did in the 1990s, etc. and what ever effort it takes to take out the credit confidence vapor lock.

I just wish I had IFTs - this volitility is fairly predictable and huge money could have beemn made - even in the TSP.
 
I can tell we're now at the bottom, because my noise is firmly plastered against the head-light of the locomative. If not, we're closing-in very soon on 2002 bottoms, which should act as strong resistence point when coupled with the Fed's taunted "bag of tools."

I've been in, and dropped with losts of pain and no legs (IFTs); but with October, like others who've been invested, you'll are able to make an IFT out, then and IFT back in. Be careful and pick you times - look for the whites in their eyes.

Gees . . . and good look.
 
nsurf9 said:
I can tell we're now at the bottom, ....we're closing-in very soon on 2002 bottoms, which should act as strong resistence point when coupled with the Fed's taunted "bag of tools."
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I so hope that's the case! Be careful, my friend. If this isn't the bottom...well, here there be dragons! :(

Lady
 
The S&P fund is now at the lows put in 2002, ~970-980. This should and/or may stop the wholesale on-going loses we are now experiencing in equities. Also, note this is also about the time the double digit appreciation in housing began. The market has returned us to the status quo before the real fast-and-loose mortgage crap started. That house that sold a little over a year ago for $470k, sold then for ~$165k.

My concern is, if the panic factor, errosion of the economic and business mechanisms, and momentum will carry lower.

I've been pulled down this far, chiefly because of lack of IFTs have kept me in, in the very same hope I now have that I may recoup as a matter of simple stochastics of the magnitude and suddeness of the losses. Also, if I can stand the heat a little more, I'll save and IFT and I can make one more round trip into equities in October. God knows, I'm glad I had a good margin built-up in march when I had legs (IFTs).

Nonetheless, stocks at this price are a bargan.
 
I hear what you're saying ... but I'm going to wait until the market shows me a bottom before I get back in. Problem is, I haven't got a clear idea of what that indicator is. Two up days in a row? Three? A week?

And for God's sake, we need to tone down this volatility a bit.
 
Dr Faustus said:
I hear what you're saying ... but I'm going to wait until the market shows me a bottom before I get back in. Problem is, I haven't got a clear idea of what that indicator is. Two up days in a row? Three? A week?

And for God's sake, we need to tone down this volatility a bit.
Click to expand...

With all the indexes down 30%, I'm going to look to jump in when the indexex are down 25% if the trend is up. Of course if if falls further, I'll just move down my nump in point lower.

CB
 
nsurf9 said:
The S&P fund is now at the lows put in 2002, ~970-980. This should and/or may stop the wholesale on-going loses we are now experiencing in equities. Also, note this is also about the time the double digit appreciation in housing began. The market has returned us to the status quo before the real fast-and-loose mortgage crap started. That house that sold a little over a year ago for $470k, sold then for ~$165k.

My concern is, if the panic factor, errosion of the economic and business mechanisms, and momentum will carry lower.

I've been pulled down this far, chiefly because of lack of IFTs have kept me in, in the very same hope I now have that I may recoup as a matter of simple stochastics of the magnitude and suddeness of the losses. Also, if I can stand the heat a little more, I'll save and IFT and I can make one more round trip into equities in October. God knows, I'm glad I had a good margin built-up in march when I had legs (IFTs).

Nonetheless, stocks at this price are a bargan.
Click to expand...


I'm riding the waves with you now my friend! I went from +10 to -6 in 4 trading days. And to think I was only going to buy in for a quick pop and then back out. Nothing worse than being right with your economic forecast and then getting burnt by going against it. Oh well, Guess that is what I deserve for being greedy. DOH! :sick::sick::sick: Hope there are some on here who saw my "red october" warning and stayed out...that would make me very happy.
 
Corepuncher said:
I went from +10 to -6 in 4 trading days. And to think I was only going to buy in for a quick pop and then back out. Nothing worse than being right with your economic forecast and then getting burnt by going against it. Oh well, Guess that is what I deserve for being greedy. DOH! :sick::sick::sick: Hope there are some on here who saw my "red october" warning and stayed out...that would make me very happy.
Click to expand...

What you'll be able to look back on with satisfaction is, while using only moves in and out of the benchmark index, you've locked in a 25% outperformance to the index. Over time this nimbleness will pay huge dividends.

Try also to remember the times you've been out of a declining market only to miss the violent upswing because you may have tried to milk too much out of the decline (also greed).

I've done both of these many times and have learned to look long term at reasonable outperformance in up and down markets. It can be done, but you must learn to be OK with leaving gains on the table.... and I think you are. cheers
 
CountryBoy said:
With all the indexes down 30%, I'm going to look to jump in when the indexex are down 25% if the trend is up. Of course if if falls further, I'll just move down my nump in point lower.

CB
Click to expand...

Dang,

One of these days I'll learn how to type and spell. :nuts:

CB
 
I see there some engines already warmed-up. Go!!!! - But, watch-out for those large spots of oil and water on top of black ice.
 
NS9 - I get this mental picture of a guy who fell into an old well on accident, who instead of yelling for help... is yelling, "c'mon in; the water's fine down here!" :nuts:

Man... you were untouchable earlier this year. Wow. :blink:
 
Fivetears, that's what having IFT legs can do for us. I know you already know that. Friday, I would have moved to I, but didn't want to expend one of my as precious as air IFTs while already in equities - cost ~5% in profit (C~11% vs I=~16%) - (cost, based on $100k investment, a neet $6k). Got to love them.

Fundsurfer, Show-me, Pointman72, Birchtree/Sugarandspice, Griffin, Ocean Wizard of Oz, you, Tom-TSPTalk, and a lot of other MB members taught me to understand the equity funds and showed me how and why to not be afraid. I just didn't realized how profound the effect would be with my shoe-laces tied together when I had to go play on the June/July and September/October freeways. With just 2 or 3 more IFTs, my retirement would be, I truly believe, significantly different. Under the old rules, the ones I invested thousand's of dollars of my own money under, it is possible that I could have exceeded 100% profit this year, even in this market - because of its volitility. I'm sure, in fact, a lot of real (inter) day traders did so.

TSP has a perfectly good internet site - it could have solicited our approval - if they provided how much a trade costs (Right!?). It could also have asked all it's members (it has all our internet addresses) if they would vote to allow paid IFTs (Right!?) But, no, Long and the TSP Board summarily and unilaterally substituted and forced their investment strategy upon us, and at the same time with Long's 10/8 letter, even lamenting this crap. Add to this, TSP doesn't nothing to educate, which they should do. With the amount of money that's in these accounts (was!), it could buy us the best information available at very little cost per person.

So, now my retirement has suffered huge losses and my ability to profit is now hamstrung with needlessly restrictive, wholly unauthorized by it members, IFT rules that by all measures shouldn't cost no more that $25 each. I really wanted to show TSP you can do better than the indexes. And, I wanted to do on the TSPTalk board. What a shame.
 
nsurf9 said:
Fivetears, that's what having IFT legs can do for us. I know you already know that. ...With just 2 or 3 more IFTs, my retirement would be, I truly believe, significantly different. ...So, now my retirement has suffered huge losses and my ability to profit is now hamstrung with needlessly restrictive, wholly unauthorized by it members, IFT rules that by all measures shouldn't cost no more that $25 each. ...It could also have asked all it's members (it has all our internet addresses) if they would vote to allow paid IFTs (Right!?) ....
Click to expand...
Too true. :(

And now people are voting about how they feel about the restrictions - - with their feet. Just look at the board meeting minutes for the proof. Sad that we have to make decisions like the security of staying or the freedom of pulling out. :worried:

I wish that reasoned words would change Thrift Board minds, but I think that "money, guns, and lawyers" won't move those minds.

But at least we have each other!! :laugh: :laugh:

Lady
 
XL-entLady, thanks. I said it earlier; I just hope the TSP Board followed their own pompousness and devices.
 
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