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NSurf9 Account Talk
- Thread starter nsurf9
- Start date
luv2read
Active member
cost to insure....Big boys are back in town...dumped commodities Wednesday and stocks yesterday and this morning...all into cash/bonds....now watch the reversal back into stocks...AGG dropping like a rock. Or is it another trap? Muwhahaha...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=178789&posted=1#post178789
remember AMBAC and MBIA a few months ago?
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nsurf9
Member
Hey, just noticed returns for I fund: TSPTalk = -23.50%; EAFE (yahoo) -10.86%; TSPGov = -17.68%. Heck, if the difference was was less that 10% percent, I wouldn't have noticed it.
The answer to all the US economy's woes is strenght at all levels of endevor.
Yes, I'm still breathing!
The answer to all the US economy's woes is strenght at all levels of endevor.
Yes, I'm still breathing!
EW_ret
Retired Tracker
The TSPTalk YTD return of -23.5%, as of 9-11-2008, is correct. The TSP.gov YTD return of -17.68% is correct, as of COB 8-31-2008. You have to pay attention to the "as of" date. The EAFE (yahoo) YTD return of -10.86% is for ISHARES MSCI EAFE FD which is not the I Fund. Its an Ishares Electronic Traded Fund (ETF) of MSCI stocks that included a fund distribution made on June 24, 2008. This would improve its YTD return compared to the I fund which does show distributions.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Wow my stomach got knots and my heart SANK when I saw this.
Thought, "Oh my gosh, poor Tom - thinkn' it's his returns"
....
nsurf9
Member
If the C, S funds hit 4% today, every 6-pack Joe in the country (world) will have popped-open all of his cans and tapped a keg this weekend.
I'm staying invested - tough call though - will the party mood fade over the weekend or will it be Sunday night before we all shake off the past month's pain to gets into the partying monentum.
I'm staying invested - tough call though - will the party mood fade over the weekend or will it be Sunday night before we all shake off the past month's pain to gets into the partying monentum.
well:
If there's alot of buying out there on the belief that crisis-management "let's throw money at it" attitude will work; expect the short term selling to continue if it doesn't pass. And buying if (and when, and in what form) it does pass - which should make for a great selling opportunity IMO.
In the long term, I don't see what this bailout accomplishes for the economy - the debt is still bad, the root cause of the problem - if you want to call it that - is not affected by the action (grossly inflated housing values, which are declining to normal levels, i.e., supportable by 2.5-3X gross income, and normal credit terms, i.e., 30 year fixed, 20% down, 6% - and probably more in the near future - interest rate).
I think the true reality check will come in the form of domestic economic data such as unemployment and retail sales, especially the holiday season.
If there's alot of buying out there on the belief that crisis-management "let's throw money at it" attitude will work; expect the short term selling to continue if it doesn't pass. And buying if (and when, and in what form) it does pass - which should make for a great selling opportunity IMO.
In the long term, I don't see what this bailout accomplishes for the economy - the debt is still bad, the root cause of the problem - if you want to call it that - is not affected by the action (grossly inflated housing values, which are declining to normal levels, i.e., supportable by 2.5-3X gross income, and normal credit terms, i.e., 30 year fixed, 20% down, 6% - and probably more in the near future - interest rate).
I think the true reality check will come in the form of domestic economic data such as unemployment and retail sales, especially the holiday season.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I agree and have been saying all along that CRISIS ASIDE...we are still slowing down economically. I would go as far as to say much of the bull market of the last 5 years has been manufactured...based on fake money. That same money is evaporating now. Thank you congress for the virtual tax rebate on the order of tens of thousands of dollars...it was nice of you to buy us 60" plasmas and Escalades. Oops, I guess we have to pay it back somehow. That means as a nation, we work for several years to pay off the debt, without buying much of anything. Flatline.
Hadn't thought of that angle.
PS: Never thought I'd catch you this year in the Tracker numbers; w/i 0.05% :nuts:
PS: Never thought I'd catch you this year in the Tracker numbers; w/i 0.05% :nuts:
justbizness45
Member
CP, you are correct that we are slowing down. Don't you think some of that is already priced into the markets? The markets really haven't reacted to the last couple of bank closings and poor market data. There were the government manipulations going on at the same time though.
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nsurf9
Member
I don't know what good or bad will come of this. The fact is the air bubble in the credit posture has to be removed, then we can move this trillion dollar economy forward. Without, we'll be at the mercy of the sea without any ability to head in the "right" direction or keep the water out of the hull.
May have been a smart move to get out with the ~10% yesterday, 'cause I know how fast congress works in a housefire. Also I would have liked a move to "I" because of the dollar devaluation and its massive elasticity. C could still be good the longshot.
With a good internet site, and financing the Government can move these properties quickly and the current itself will begin to move the real estate sector.
I can only hope for the best and perhaps buy some RE at the bottom . . . until then - darn good surfing - if I had an IFT a day, or could "day trade," I could have made a mint this week and billions (ok, several thousand) dollars this year in the TSP alone.
May have been a smart move to get out with the ~10% yesterday, 'cause I know how fast congress works in a housefire. Also I would have liked a move to "I" because of the dollar devaluation and its massive elasticity. C could still be good the longshot.
With a good internet site, and financing the Government can move these properties quickly and the current itself will begin to move the real estate sector.
I can only hope for the best and perhaps buy some RE at the bottom . . . until then - darn good surfing - if I had an IFT a day, or could "day trade," I could have made a mint this week and billions (ok, several thousand) dollars this year in the TSP alone.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Nsurf,
The way I see it: You are a Pro - so it makes no difference where you are on the Auto Tracker.
I use to watch it but now only go on to post an IFT.
As the Markets have tumbled so much lately - and it's highly unlikely we will see much of a 'huge rally' SO you're better off not watching too closely.
Anyway - that's my 2 cents
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Me too ! But the longer this "Deal" drags on the less likely anything spectacular will happen.
From my perspective - the quicker it happened the greater the odds of a super rally.
Time will tell but I think if Congress waits another week or so that the Markets will move up a little - but likely stay about the same.
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