No Bad Luck Today

The charts were looking pretty "iffy" the past day or two and it seemed we might be poised to quickly run back down the ladder, but that would be the typical play we've seen numerous times in the past several weeks. It's becoming too obvious everytime the market hits the upper end of its trading channel that we drop 5% or so. That's not going to keep happening forever. We'll eventually break out of this trading wedge, but which way?

I've noticed trading volume has been light the past couple of days. Are da boyz gathering resources for another spike higher? There's been an interesting discussion the past day in my account talk thread that you might want to read. An argument can be made for a rally higher from current levels.

Let's see how the Seven Sentinels fared after Friday's action:

$NAMO.jpg

NAMO and NYMO flipped back to buys while NAHL and NYHL remained on a sell.

$TRIN.jpg

TRIN flipped back to a buy too, while TRINQ and BPCOMPQ remain on a buy. It probably should be mentioned that although BPCOMPQ has not shown much strength in the past couple of weeks, it is still well within bullish parameters. A reading over 70 means the market is overbought. We were above that level for some time. Now we're in more sustainable territory, so while it still appears to be weak, one should not read too much into its recent decline.

Allocation by fund ~ 2009 Chart 1.jpg
Total Cash-Stock Exp ~ 2009 Chart 1.jpg

Need I say anything about our top 25%?

So we have 2 of 7 signals on sells, which keeps the system on a buy. Volatility is still very much with us and our TSP accounts will probably continue to be whipped around in this market. I am still long, mainly because I'm looking for BPCOMPQ to turn back up. If it doesn't, we will almost certainly drop back down. The low volume in this market is telling us something, but I'm not sure what. I'd like to think capital is being held back for a push to higher levels, but I can't hang my hat on that.

We'll probably know the answer next week. For now though the Seven Sentinels are strong enough to hold another day.
 
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