I think this guy has it right!!:worried:
Farrell: Caution, We May Be Getting Ahead Of Ourselves
Posted By:
Vince Farrell
Topics:
Recession |
Economy (U.S.) |
Economy (Global) |
Trade |
Retail Sales
Vince Farrell
CNBC Contributor
Retail sales? I don't think so. It's the heavy hand of government
Retail sales were reported for last month and were viewed as disappointing coming in down 0.4% when most were hoping for a flat performance. But for reasons we listed yesterday when chain store sales were announced, we felt that the recent uptick in consumer performance was not sustainable. There were some one time spurts to incomes that helped in the very recent past, but the consumer is still overleveraged, worried about jobs and will continue to save more as uncertainty requires a pool of savings to fall back on if times get tougher. Unemployment is high and rising, and wage growth is stunted. It's hard to see retail sales, or the consumer in the overall, spurring economic growth.
The
market sold off and the reasonable explanation was that the cause was the poor sales showing. That was undoubtedly part of the selloff. We have been digesting better than expected news with the optimism that comes with rising stock prices. But now we have had a run and bad news is being treated as bad news and depresses the market which is the mark of a correction. There is another more troubling feature to the news of the day than just bad retail sales though.
I think the bigger, more troubling headline was the word that the administration is looking at ways to regulate and restrict financial paychecks. Cap and trade seems to be back and alive and well, and major health care reform is on the way. This sure sounds like the world is going to be directed
out of the Oval Office and I thought central control of an economy has been discredited by the failure of every country that has tried it. I find this so troubling that words fail me (well almost, I have never run out of words.) This is very bad news, and it will be very hard politically to stand against this with the populist fervor running through the country. I was almost completely despaired by this administration today when news came at the end of the day that charges are being prepared against
Angelo Mozilo, former CEO of Countrywide. Some faith has been restored, but only some.
Word out of
the Financial Times today was that the EU will follow the US' lead and stress test their banks. The European banks have allegedly been conducting their own tests privately and decided that was not good enough. There are lots of opinions about the US stress tests but on balance the results have been well received. Europe needs to catch up.
Our
March trade deficit released [more]
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30743078