Nikkei

biggdog1

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Is the Nicky down or closed today ? I'm not getting anything from Yahoo, Bloomberg etc.
 
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Thanks for the info. What kind of Turkey do they eat in the Land of the Rising Sun :%.I don't think the Footsy will be strong enough today to raise the I-Fund by itself, but I'm sticking with what I have (30/50/20 CSI). I'm sure you're getting ready to launch your liner from drydock any day now ! ! ! Do you think there any bears lurking in the woods for next week ?
 
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Footsy & Nicky opening nicely today ( This may bode well for Monday's C/S funds). Does this also mean the I-Fund will be up :}today fighting againsta strong $ again ? Tune in today at 04:00 for another exciting day of " As the Market Yearns " !!!
 
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FUTURESTRADER wrote:
msci eafe +.811%...=+13.6 cents???
Is this Greg's formula for his predictions for `I' ?? I haven't seen it in any of the other forums/threads this mroning for yesterday evening....
 
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Looks like today might be another GREAT day for the I fund, the Nikkei finished up 1.92%!!! FTSE is up .4% so far, has the ball and running with it. I am looking for another 1% or so today and probably heading for the hills, correction on monday or tuesday? Weve come up this hill very fast, must be losing steam.
 
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grandma wrote:
FUTURESTRADER wrote:
msci eafe +.811%...=+13.6 cents???
Is this Greg's formula for his predictions for `I' ?? I haven't seen it in any of the other forums/threads this mroning for yesterday evening....


no...sorry, grandma...the msci eafe was up .811% yesterday...so i was just guessing...but I fund was up 1.42%...however, again EFA WAS up 1.4% also, from 1 p.m. wednesday to 1 p.m. thursday. I've seen this happen a few times now, too much for coincidence. maybe the thrift board will baseline their return on this 24 hour period, then adjust on 'some' factor until the following wednesday/thurday period??

i'll be testing that 'going forward':D
 
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Ok I think your right about the 24 hour time frame, from noon eastern to noon eastern is the basis for the corrections and share prices but the I pretty much tracks the ishares MSCI EAFE which IS the EFA. Correct me if I'm wrong. I mean, thats what tom has at the top of the Message board as the I fund.
 
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FUTURESTRADER wrote:
grandma wrote:
Is this Greg's formula for his predictions for `I' ?? I haven't seen it in any of the other forums/threads this mroning for yesterday evening....
the msci eafe was up .811% yesterday......but I fund was up 1.42%

The I fund daily return "should" be "close" to the MSCI (~ +/- 2 cents); they calculate it slightly different and then do a complex adjustment for the EOD dollar index. When they do it honest, the I-fund EOD share price is usually within 2 cents of what it should be calculating using the MSCI. But ~6 times a month, they fudge (+/-) the share price by up to 0.7%, then take away it away the next day (although one time this summer, they did not remove the fudge until two(2) days later.):%

But what do I know. Wheels says I don't know what I'm taking about. That's cool with me.
 
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Soldat wrote:
Ok I think your right about the 24 hour time frame, from noon eastern to noon eastern is the basis for the corrections and share prices but the I pretty much tracks the ishares MSCI EAFE which IS the EFA. Correct me if I'm wrong. I mean, thats what tom has at the top of the Message board as the I fund.the
the EFA is an ishare or ETF (exchange traded fund), trades like a stock on u.s. stock exchange so it trades 9-4 est while international markets are closed or closing...japanese nikkei is 14 hours ahead of us. the MSCI EAFE 'Proper' if you will, is the index. EFA is the ishare that tracks the EAFA index, will give you a closing price at that webpage by 2 or 3 pm est.





MSCI EAFE Index Fund (EFA)


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The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.


from http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/detail.jhtml;jsessionid=TWE0QTIT3GGUERJUGQOBBGSFGRSEWD50?symbol=EFA
 
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Additionally, the I fund price most days will correlate exactly with the closing price of the MSCI EAFE which, as mentioned, is posted daily between 2:30 and 3:00pm. Occasionally the TSP people will alter the closing price of the I fund fund for a variety of reasons. Yesterday was one of those days. One possible reason is that the dollar fell pretty significantly yesterday AFTER 1:00pm. Whatever the reason, when you see it happen, you will usually see it re-corrected within a few days. Yesterday they posted a price that was 8 or 10 cents higher than it should have been so in the next couple of days you'll them post that same amount lower, not always in one chunk though.

Dave

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...so what it amounts to, is, that like

our TSP hours- cob 12 noon est and the Wall Street hours cob at 4:00pm,

the I fund closing hour (for figuring the % +/-) is that same relationship to our Wall Street 4pm closing.......
catandfishpluto.jpg

..we're at a disadvantage whatever
 
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OHHKAy...so msci eafe closed today at +.848%. yesterday I fund gave us +1.427% and the msci eafe closed at +.811% an 'overpayment' of +.616%. so today should be .848 - .616%= +.232%, or about +4 cents....weeeeell seeee:D
 
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FUTURESTRADER wrote:
I fund ... today should be ... about +4 cents
It will still be at $17.05 or maybe up/down 1 cent (more likely down).
C & S funds will also be static.
 
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FUTURESTRADER wrote:
OHHKAy...so msci eafe closed today at +.848%. yesterday I fund gave us +1.427% and the msci eafe closed at +.811% an 'overpayment' of +.616%. so today should be .848 - .616%= +.232%, or about +4 cents....weeeeell seeee:D
In theory. But I like I said sometimes you have to wait a few days to get back to even.

Dave

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FUTURESTRADER wrote:
OHHKAy...so msci eafe closed today at +.848%. yesterday I fund gave us +1.427% and the msci eafe closed at +.811% an 'overpayment' of +.616%. so today should be .848 - .616%= +.232%, or about +4 cents....weeeeell seeee:D

You can't just add/subtract percentages; they're not linear. You have to multiply them. It's is nowhere near as simple as ya'll are trying to make it.

Look at Tom's excel spreadsheets for the formula on how to accumulate daily percentages.
 
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OK then, more specifically Wednesday's I fund price was 16.81. Thursdays MSCI EAFE went up by .811%. So Thursday's I fund price should have been 16.97. Instead it was 17.05, or 8 cents too much. Today's MSCI EAFE went up by .848%. Multiplied by 16.97 means todays I fund should be 17.11 IF and this a big if, they give the entire 8 cents back today. It could be as high as 17.19 if they decide not to give any of it back until next week.

Dave

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