Neirbod Account Talk

[neirbod]

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???

Scratching my head on that last comment. Maybe you think the dollar is going to contiune up. Sure, I could be wrong on the dollar, but my belief is that it has a lot more room to drop than it does to gain strength.

 

[nnuut]

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I agree NB but I don't know when. Looks like Europe might be raising the Prime soon, and YES that will do the trick. Good thinkin', but don't know about the timing? Some are going to the "I" today to play the Bounce, you are probably right on. What do I know anyway?:^

 

[neirbod]

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Went 100% G before the deadline.

A big drop in oil, and only a modest increase in share prices, makes me think this rally needs a rest. This will be a short term move, perhaps only a day if we get a good drop tomorrow. When I get back in, I will diversify into some mix of C, S, and I.

I think the Santa Claus rally will be in full effect this year, with falling gas price making folks feed good and spending their $$. That being said, I think the good vibes be short lived and I will likely jump ship late December in anticipation of the fallout from sticker shock on people's Visa and heating oil bills.

Happy Thanksgiving, all!

Dave

 

[neirbod]

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Jumping back in. I still expect a pull back, but I am not confident I can time it well enough to risk missing out on a continued run. I will take the 1% or so I "gained" by avoiding the recent big drop, and go back to my medium to long term approach. I still think the I fund will take off soon, but given the timing is very iffy, I diversified.

Hoping Greg is right about a correction today that will make the I fund cheap!

Went 20 C, 30 S, 50 I before deadline

Dave

 

[neirbod]

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This rally might be running low on steam. Good job report and the market is just see-sawing. So, I am backing out (partially), expecting a small pull back early next week. With this bull run in full gear, I won't get too cute. This will almost certainly be a quick move, and I'll be back in by the end of the week.

I am staying 50% in I.I don't want to get out of stocks more than 50% while we areriding such a great wave. Plus, I am still expecting the dollar to drop, so I want to hold my I fund shares while they are relatively cheap. The drop could be next week, or February, but I do expect it to happen, and it possibly could be very quick so I don't want to miss it.I can be patient as long as the I fund is not showing signs of a big drop.

Went 50 G, 50 I before the deadline

 

[neirbod]

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Just realized I never posted my last move here: 50 S and 50 I before the deadline on 12-5. I did post this in my account thread.

I am moving more $$ into I. Looks like the dollar has topped out, and has begun to decline. I expect this trend will continue over the next weeks to months, and I wanta good chunk in I to take advantage.

The remainder of my $$ is going to C. It is undervalued relative to the other funds, so it seems to have room to catch up.

COB today: 30 C, 70 I

 

[neirbod]

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Taking a more defensive position. Still want to keep my finger in stocks, and still like the I fund given I expect the dollar to fall again.

Before deadline, went:

30 G, 30 F, 40 I

 

[neirbod]

I am moving more into stocks. I may very well get caught in a short-term downturn, but I don't think it makes sense to fight the strong upward momentum of this market. I am playing medium-term trends (e.g. weeks), so am not worried about daily swings up or down.

I am keeping some in F for relative safety. I will eventually move more into I, but right now I think the other funds may outperform I for a while.

before deadline went:
20 F, 30 C, 10 S, 40 I

 

[neirbod]

I just realized I never updated this thread in February. I have been 30 C, 20 S, and 50 I for about a month. I mad the change in my account thread, but not here.

I am still holding at 30 C, 20 S, and 50 I. I have made a very conscious effort not to chase after daily or even weekly wiggles over the past few months. It takes a lot of discipline for me *not* to make more moves. But, I see in the monthly tracker the same info I have read about elsewhere: more moves generally results in poorer returns. Not for everyone, and there are some here who do nearly daily trades and do it very well. I just learned that I am not one of them!

In the ongoing quest for my ideal strategy, I am now following an adapted version of the old adage "sell in May and go away." That is, I will tend to be "all in" during the historically solid months of Octiber through April, then adopt a more defensive, and likley active, posture in the summer months as a try to play shorter term movements. That being said, I still watch the markets and have an exit strategy if they start to tank at any time.

Time will tell how this works out.

Dave

 

[neirbod]

Despite my previous post, I decided to take some money off the table for what I think will be a short term move. I have made some nice gains, and the inflation reading was very good. Seems like there will be some good gains today. I think we'll continue on up, but I think there could be some profit taking in the next few days.

I still am most enamored by the I fund, so I am keeping some money in play.

COB today:
40 G, 30 F, 30 I

 

[neirbod]

We didn't get the pull back I was expecting the end of last week, but things seem to be levelling off. I still think a short-term sell off in in the cards, hopefully (for me) it is today.

Either way, I am beting that we'll have good inflation numbers tomorrow, and I want to be in to catch the expected rise, especially in the I fund. If we get a decent sell off today, I will likely stay in stocks a while longer. If we don't see a sell off today, I may run to the exits in the next day or two. I think we have substantially more to rise, but we need some selling to get folks off the sidelines and buy the dip.

COB today:
70 I, 30 S

 

[neirbod]

I am stepping aside. As we head toward the historically weaker time of the year, I will begin taking a more defensive stance. We have had a good run these past months, and some nice (but choppy) movement recently. With oil heading higher, and Iran making noise, I fear we could head lower next week. I think tomorrow should be ok, barring any major bad news, as the quarter is ending and there may be some window dressing to keep the market up. Once the new quarter begins, who knows?

Going 70 G 30 F COB *tomorrow* (I won't be online tomorrow, so I am making the move now after today's deadline.

Dave

 

[neirbod]

Dipping a toe back in. Hoping that any damage from the poor oil inventory report will be done by COB today. The I fund could be ripe for a bounce, so I am putting some into I. My strategy is to be more agressive in historically strong months, and April qualifies. If we had this same situation in May, I'd stay clear. Even so, I am very skittish about the market, so I am still keeping most of my money in G and F.

35 G, 30 F, 35 I

 

[EW_ret]

Just to let you know you have an error in your Account thread. It states IFT going to 5% G, 30% F, and 35% I.

 

[neirbod]

Fixed it. Thanks!

 

[neirbod]

Not looking good so far today. Looks like my move into I was ill-advised. But, the day is young, so who knows. Either way, I'm backing out to get the expected penny in G Monday. Happy easter to all!

today: 100 G

 

[neirbod]

Going 100% F COB today.

 

[neirbod]

Haven't made many moves lately. But, with the economy slowing, and rate hikes potentially near an end, I am moving all of my stock funds into I in hopes of a continued falling dollar. I am keeping 30% in F for relative safety and hoping for a decent return if people get skittish about stocks.

COB today:
70% I, 30% F

By the way, I noticed I did not update my account talk after my last move. I have been sitting at 30 F, 20 C, 25 S, and 25 I since May. I did update my account moves thread, just forgot to do it here.

 

[neirbod]

Anticipating some short term profit-taking, so am playing some defense. Was tempted to go 100 G, but I do think we could be at the start of a long term rally so I don't want to get too cute. I don't see the dollar falling much further in the short term, so I will also diversify my stocks.

COB today:
30 G, 20 F, 15 C, 15 S, 20 I

 

[neirbod]

I figure if there is significant profit taking from the recent rally, it could happen later today. If not, it could be a good sign of things to come. So, I am going a little less defensive. I also will probably avoid G in the near future and use the F fund for relative safety, as I think F will outperform the G fund with interest rates apparently staying put for the time being. I used some G yesterday to try to get that penny.

COB today:
30 F, 15 C, 20 S, 35 I